Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 210557 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1157 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The focus for impact weather will be over eastern NM where IFR low
cigs and vsbys will continue thru at least sunrise. KLVS will be the
hardest hit with a lengthy duration of airport minimums. Western NM
will see impacts from MVFR low cigs mainly south of I-40 overnight.
The latest satellite imagery indicates low cigs creeping north closer
to KGUP. The Rio Grande Valley will remain VFR overnight however a
cloud deck near 050 will take shape thru sunrise before dissipating
thru 18Z. The east may remain socked in with low cigs thru late day
as low level moist, east-northeast flow continues behind an exiting
upper wave.



.PREV DISCUSSION...606 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018...
Broad closed upper low centered over north-central NM at 00Z to
track ewd to wrn KS/NE next 24 hrs. MVFR cigs across the ne and east-
central plains will continue to lift ewd as low level southwest wind
gusts to around 30kt continue through around sunset. An upper-level
wave on the sw side of the upper low will bring isold to wdly sct
showers and MVFR/IFR cigs to west-central and central NM this
evening, gradually diminishing after 21/06Z. Dry low levels will
result in gusty outflow winds from some of the stronger showers.
Light to moderate nw winds will be the rule most locales Saturday,
along with isold -shras for the Sangre de Cristos mts near the CO



.PREV DISCUSSION...239 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018...
Unsettled weather will continue through the evening and overnight
hours, thanks to a potent Pacific storm system that is moving slowly
over the region. Cooler conditions will prevail Saturday behind the
Pacific cold front, with chances for precipitation relegated to the
northeast quarter of the state. A warming trend will kick-off Sunday
and continue into Monday, with daytime temperatures headed back above
normal. Isolated showers or storms on Sunday and Monday should stick
to the higher terrain and will produce very little measurable
precipitation. A backdoor cold front will move into eastern New
Mexico Tuesday and progress west across the area Tuesday night,
bringing increasing chances for showers and storms. Another backdoor
cold front will push through Thursday, bringing renewed chances for
showers and storms to much of the state going into the end of next


At 230 PM MDT...the upper low is currently over the Four Corners,
while the attendant Pacific cold front is making eastward progress
into the eastern highlands. Ahead of the front, Gulf moisture
advection has resulted in surface dewpoint temperatures rising into
the mid 40s across the east central and southeast plains where storms
may attempt to organize and become severe thanks to favorable
veering wind profiles and strong moisture convergence. However,
surface based instability is lacking and will likely result in any
severe storms being pulse-type with the mostly likely threat being
severe wind gusts to between 60-70 mph. Look for storms to shift out
of eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle between 5-7 PM. A
jet max diving south down the backside of the upper low circulation
into Arizona will continue to rotate southeast into our area this
evening, resulting in increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage and
intensity. West central New Mexico to near the Rio Grande Valley
will benefit this evening with decent chances for rain and graupel.
Everything will quiet-down nicely by midnight with the loss of
daytime heating while the upper low progresses east into southeast
Colorado. Wrap-around moisture, daytime heating and upslope forcing
provided by a backdoor frontal push will result in chances for
showers Saturday across portions of north central and northeast New
Mexico, but otherwise Saturday will be relatively cool and

Look for a warming trend to kick-off Sunday as weak ridging moving in
behind the departing upper low. Lingering mid level moisture and
daytime heating may result in a mix of wet/dry showers and storms
Sunday afternoon across the high terrain. By Monday, daytime
temperatures will be back above normal areawide with another round
of daytime heating-triggered and mostly dry convection.

Two backdoor cold fronts will push through next week, one on Tuesday
and the next and possibly stronger one on Thursday. Both fronts will
provide some cooling, mainly to eastern New Mexico. Both fronts will
also bring some moisture and forcing for showers and storms,
favoring the Central Mountain Chain. Good news is that there are no
significant wind systems forecast by either the 12Z GFS or ECMWF for
the next 10 days.



Spotty, localized critical fire weather conditions continue south of
Interstate 40 this afternoon and early this evening before a break
from critical conditions for the weekend and into next week.

A sprawling upper low pressure system will continue to track to the
east with the center of circulation remaining north of New Mexico.
That said, sufficient instability will exist for scattered to
numerous showers and high terrain snow showers through tonight
across the northwest two thirds of the region. Thunderstorms will
roam northeast NM and areas east of the Pecos Valley to the TX
border through this evening, a few of which may be strong to severe.
Overnight humidities will trend upward for most locales and
temperatures cooler. The low will exit Saturday with some lingering
precipitation over the Sangre de Cristo mountains and northeast.
Gusty northwest to north winds will also be featured areawide but
won`t be nearly as strong as they have been recently. Highs Saturday
will be warmer but near to below climatology.

A cold front will push into eastern NM Saturday night with some
increased humidities. A weak disturbance Sunday will allow for a
slight chance for some light showers over the higher terrain.
However, some fair to poor vent rates are forecast for the east.
Monday will see temperatures a few degrees warmer than average and
somewhat drier but winds will be relatively light for the season.
Monday`s vent rates return to excellent values area wide.

A strong cold front is still forecast to impact the eastern plains
Tuesday. The front surges westward Tuesday night into central NM and
to the Contdvd. Another vigorous front Thursday reinforces low level
moisture, reducing the potential for any critical conditions to
develop and improving chances for at least spotty wetting showers
and thunderstorms across central and eastern NM.




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