Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191211 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
611 AM MDT Sat May 19 2018

Will update the forecast shortly to significantly increase cloud
cover across the northeast plains of NM during the morning hours.
Based on the latest HRRR, this cloud deck will gradually break up
from west to east during the mid- to late morning hours. DPorter


MVFR ceilings developed overnight across the northeast plains of NM.
Activity will remain east of KLVS, but may briefly graze KTCC before
shifting east/dissipating. Otherwise VFR conditions and fairly tame
winds are expected through the afternoon. A cold front will progress
from north to south through the ern plains late this afternoon into
the evening hours. Strong gusty winds are likely in its wake as well
as canyon winds in the Rio Grande Valley, impacting both KSAF/KABQ.
Guidance differs on the strength, but there is potential of Aviation
Weather Warning criteria near/shortly after 06Z/Sun. Meanwhile, low
clouds are a possibility as low-level moisture increases east of the
central mountains. Will favor MVFR conditions in the TAFs for now.


.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT Sat May 19 2018...
Mostly sunny skies along with high temperatures similar to Friday`s
readings are on tap today. A relatively strong backdoor cold front
will move into eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening,
pushing west and south overnight. Cooler air along with Gulf moisture
will move in behind the front Sunday and Monday, especially east.
Gusty east canyon winds will likely develop into the Rio Grande
Valley tonight, continuing through Monday morning. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase Monday across central and eastern
NM, while isolated showers or thunderstorms with little to no
measurable rain and gusty winds prevail west.



As a weak upper level trough deepens over OR and CA today, the flow
aloft over NM will transition to swly. Meanwhile at the surface, a
backdoor cold front in eastern CO is poised to drop south into
northeast NM this afternoon. This front will push south and west
overnight, resulting in gusty east canyon winds into the RGV. Models
agree that a reinforcing shot of cooler air will continue the east
winds and cooler conditons during the day Sunday and into Sunday
night. Latest model runs are more stable Sunday afternoon and evening,
limiting shower and thunderstorm chances to mainly the central
mountain chain. Gulf moisture increases markedly (PWATS approaching
1.0 inch from the RGV east) Sunday night and Monday, setting the
stage for increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Monday afternoon
and Monday night, especially east. A few of these storms could be
strong to severe over eastern NM with sufficient effective bulk
sheer values forecast. Main convective limiter Monday will be the
upslope stratus keeping things quite stable until the late
afternoon. Thunderstorm chances continue across eastern NM Tuesday
while drier air moves into western and central areas. Dry air
moves in across western and central NM Wednesday while showers and
thunderstorms remain possible east.

GFS and ECMWF start to differ Thursday and beyond. The overall
synoptic pattern is similar in each model with the main differences
being the strength and placement of a northern stream trough over the
Northern Plains and a closed low in the EPAC. GFS solution would
result in better chances for thunderstorms over eastern NM toward
the end of the work week while the ECWMF would mean more dry. Upshot
is that we`re finally discussing Gulf moisture and precipitation



Even though winds will be lighter across NM today, limiting the
potential for critical fire weather conditions, a dry and unstable
air mass will remain in place for most areas. In fact, minimum RH
values will range from 3 to 8 percent for locales along/south of
McKinley to Santa Fe and Curry Counties. A backdoor cold front is
forecast to bring increased moisture to the eastern plains of NM
Saturday evening/overnight. Strong gusty winds are likely in the
wake of the boundary, and it will likely push into the Rio Grande
Valley, resulting in gap winds during the morning hours of Sunday.

Precipitation chances, along with the potential for wetting rains,
will increase along/east of the central mountains on Sunday. This
unsettled pattern will persist through Tue as an upper level storm
system traverses the Great Basin. Low-level moisture will likely
slosh back and forth between the Continental Divide and Rio Grande
Valley during this time. Based on local rules of thumb, this area
will be favored for a mix of wet/dry storms. Drier activity will be
capable of gusty and erratic winds. In addition, a brief period of
LAL=6 will be possible on Monday from the San Mateo Mtns to north
central NM. Meanwhile, Haines of 6 will be favored for areas along/
west of the Continental Divide.

A drier regime is forecast for the middle part of next week,
although precipitation chances will not be erased in the eastern
plains. There is potential for another backdoor front late in the
week; however, there are significant differences in the numerical
guidance. DPorter





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