Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 200601 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1201 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A few showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact Curry and
Roosevelt Counties for the next hour or two. MVFR and possibly IFR
ceilings are forecast to develop across the eastern plains tonight
with the backdoor cold front moving towards the Continental Divide.
These lower ceilings could impact the region through late morning.
Gusty north-northeast winds will impact terminals across the east
through mid- to late morning. Below canyon winds are expected for
the Rio Grande Valley into Sunday night, including both KSAF/KABQ.
An Aviation Weather Warning has already been posted for the 08Z to
15Z time frame. With added moisture across the region and a storm
system to the west, showers and thunderstorms will be more common
across central and eastern NM, with the best opportunity along and
east of the central mountain chain. Drier-type storms resulting in
gusty/erratic outflows are favored between the Continental Divide
and the central mountain chain. DPorter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT Sat May 19 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong back cold door front will slide south and west across
eastern New Mexico tonight. East winds will increase in the Rio
Grande Valley overnight with gusts up to 50 mph possible below
canyons. This front will force moisture westward to the Continental
Divide Sunday and set the stage for showers and storms for central
and eastern New Mexico through Tuesday. Temperatures will also cool
below normal for much of central and eastern New Mexico behind this
front. An upper level trough will then approach western New Mexico
Wednesday and force moisture back into eastern New Mexico for the
remainder of the week. Temperatures will warm above normal once again
starting Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and storms are developing along the Sangre de Cristo Mts
this afternoon where low level moisture pushed south and west into
the region overnight. 19Z LAPS analysis shows abundant instability
across northeastern NM in a large area surrounding the SPC slight
risk. The latest HRRR/RAP and HREF-2 solutions indicate storms will
move east-southeast across the northeast thru 04Z followed by the
next strong frontal push in its wake.

Strong gap winds are anticipated within the middle Rio Grande Valley
from Santa Fe southward to ABQ and canyons east of Socorro and the
Tularosa Valley. Surprisingly MOS guidance is not showing winds too
strong along the lower Rio Grande Valley so confidence was not high
enough for a Wind Advisory at this time. Areas from near Santa Fe to
Placitas, Bear, Embudo, Tijeras, and Hells Canyon could see a brief
burst of high winds as moisture slams thru the Sandia/Manzano Mts
from 04Z to 07Z.

Low level moisture is expected to advect westward to the Cont Dvd
Sunday while an upper level low develops over southern CA. This will
set the stage for daily round of showers and storms over central and
eastern NM Sunday thru Tuesday. 12Z NAM/GFS PW values surge to btwn
0.70 and 0.90" at KABQ. Increasing southerly flow aloft will help
deepen atmospheric moisture however the wetness of storms along and
west of the Rio Grande Valley is uncertain and doubtful, especially
given the prolonged drought scenario over the area. At this time the
highest confidence for moderate to heavy precip will be east of the
central mt chain where WPC shows 5-day QPF values of 0.75 to 1.75".

Extended model guidance is in good agreement showing much drier air
spreading eastward across central and western NM beginning Wednesday.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A trend toward higher humidities with isolated to scattered wetting
convection especially from the central mountain chain over the
eastern plains has begun. A boundary driven by convection in
southeast CO and over the OK/TX panhandles during the last 24 hours
pushed into eastern NM last night. Increasing instability over
northeast and east central NM this afternoon has resulted in showers
and thunderstorms developing along the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo mountains. Additional development is expected as cells
initially track from southwest to northeast. A few of these storms
could become strong to severe later this afternoon and into the
evening with large hail and strong and gusty winds to around 60 mph.

As convection increases later this evening, another boundary will
surge south through the eastern plains and into the Rio Grande
Valley on gusty winds, spreading higher humidities westward.
However, overnight humidity recoveries will remain fair to poor west
of the Continental Divide.

Sunday will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler central and east, with
isolated to scattered showers and storms along and near the central
mountain chain. Chances for wetting showers and storms increase
Sunday night into Tuesday central and east. A mix of wet and dry
activity is possible between the Continental Divide and Rio Grande
Valley Sunday through Monday. Daytime temperatures though, will be
near to below average. There does appear to be potential for
critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon from the Chuska
mountains southward towards Glenwood but humidity recoveries Monday
night look to be mostly fair to good over this area.

A drying and warming trend gains strength in the west Tuesday, then
spreads eastward Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for wetting rain
will be quite small and limited by Thursday to portions of the east,
as minimum humidities fall to the single digits west and overnight
recoveries become fair to poor central and west. Another front late
next week could restart the westward moisture slosh but extended
models disagree if there will be much wetting precipitation as a
result.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for the following zones...
NMZ518-519.

&&

$$

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