Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 302329 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.AVIATION...00z TAFs...

VFR conditions are expected with this TAF period. A cold front
will begin to push across the Panhandles in the next few hours.
Winds behind the front will be out of the north. KDHT and KGUY
will likely see gusty winds behind the front. The front may reach
as far south as KAMA overnight before retreating back north.
Otherwise, low level wind shear is possible at KGUY for a couple
of hours overnight.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night...

Visible satellite shows cu forming in the southern TX Panhandle
this afternoon. It also shows the clouds intensifying in NM over
the mountains. With westerly flow aloft, the clouds, turning into
thunderstorms, will have a chance at making it to the northwest
Panhandles this evening. At the surface, observations show a low
pressure center in the northwest Panhandles this afternoon and a
cold front up in central KS/CO. The front should arrive in the
northern Panhandles later this evening and push perhaps to
Amarillo by early morning. The front will retreat during the day
Friday. Where it ends up will dictate where storms coming off the
mountains tomorrow will cross the northwestern Panhandles.
Forecast soundings are a bit onion like for tomorrow, which means
there is some potential for storms to produce severe winds. This
potential will need to be monitored closely tomorrow. Not all CAMs
agree on storms crossing the Panhandles, but many do so precip
chances remain around 50-60 percent in the far northwest. Temps
for the rest of the Panhandles will be in the mid to upper 90s
with Palo Duro Canyon reaching around 100 degrees thanks to
southerly flow at the surface.


LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...

Overall, the long term is active with several rounds of
shower/thunderstorm potential essentially every day. These will be
our typical summertime activity with slow moving unorganized
clusters of storms. Pinpointing these exact locations will be
difficult for not only rain chances but severe weather chances as
well. On most days the west and north will be favored for
precipitation. The main threat with any storms would be damaging
wind gusts if they collapse. Otherwise, near normal temperatures
are expected so it will be hot through early July with mid to
upper 90s common. That said, a few locations could reach the
triple digits around 100-102. Lastly, since its the holiday
weekend, we will have increased outdoor activity with potential
fireworks, so care should be taken to prevent any fire starts.

An H5 high will park itself over the southeastern CONUS through
most of the extended. This will place the Panhandles under
southwesterly to zonal flow nearly every day. Forecast soundings
show a relatively dry column, weak lapse rates, and overall weak
flow in the wind field. In this type of pattern, storms will be
very unorganized and updrafts will have difficulties maintaining.
Very little instability will be available as well. However, given
the inverted-v temperature profiles, this will allow for rapid
cooling via evaporation through the dry layer which could lead
damaging wind gusts from a downburst. When and where this occurs
will be difficult to forecast in addition to the rainfall in
general. A lot of areas could use the rainfall, so we are hoping
these precipitation chances increase, but given the weak flow
pattern its going to be difficult to get any widespread rainfall
through extended forecast.





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