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000
FXUS64 KAMA 020756
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
256 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

The likelihood of heavy rainfall and additional flooding today into
tonight across the southeastern two thirds of the Panhandles remains
the main concern in the short term. Additionally, there will be a
chance for severe thunderstorms as well. Saturday may bring
potential for both of these hazards once again.

07z WV imagery depicts a strong upper wave over the Gadsden Purchase
and a downstream southwesterly upper jet extending over NM and the
Panhandles with multiple disturbances in this flow. An upper low is
seen moving southeastward off the FL Gulf Coast. A few thunderstorms
are ongoing in NE NM ahead of one of these shortwaves. At the
surface, dewpoints remain in the upper 50s and 60s, where they`ve
largely been for the past couple weeks. In the wake of the Gulf
upper low, subtle surface ridge is in place over the SE CONUS,
resulting in south-southeasterly winds across TX, advecting moisture
northward to our forecast area. Indeed, 00z AMA RAOB shows
relatively moist conditions through the column, measuring 1.04" of
PWAT, above the 90th percentile of RAOBs for this time of year.

Today into tonight, upper wave to our southwest advances eastward
with the associated upper jet overspreading our CWA. At the surface,
weak lee trough with a subtle wind shift will continue to be present
in our far west, with latest trends placing this right along the
NM/TX border at midday, a westward trend that is largely believable
as moisture that advected northward yesterday failed to turn over
Thursday evening. As the mid and upper levels cool ahead of the
wave, expect thunderstorms to develop along the aforementioned
surface trough. While progged 0-6km bulk shear vectors are around 30
knots, these are oriented either along the surface boundary or just
off it, so expect rapid upscale growth even if initial development
may briefly take the form of isolated supercells with an attendant
risk for severe hail and damaging winds. With progged storm motions
also out of the southwest, there will be the potential for storms
to train for a time, with the saving grace being the forward
motion of the upper wave limiting the time period in which storms
may develop and move over a given SW-NE corridor. Despite that
saving grace, given the impressive rain rates seen recently in low
forcing regimes, pre-convective PWATs running well toward the
high side of climatology, expected widespread nature of the
thunderstorms due to favorable dynamics, saturated soils, full
playa lakes, rivers in action and flood stage, and NBM/HREF
suggesting potential for localized pockets of 3+" of rainfall,
have issued a Flood Watch for a good portion of the CWA starting
at 1 PM this afternoon through the nighttime hours.

Saturday, expect a bit of lingering precip in the NE during the
early morning but there should be several dry hours during the day
as the upper wave departs to the north. Have moved toward other
consensus blends as NBM just won`t give up its tendency to spread
mentions of rain across the entire area during the daytime during
periods of low level moist advection, likely due to contamination
from the extended RAP. While flow aloft will have transitioned to a
west-northwesterly patter, should still get a good shortwave
advancing downstream during the late afternoon and evening hours.
With our low level moisture really not going anywhere, another good
chance for showers and thunderstorms is in the cards. Sfc-6km bulk
shear is pitiful at around 20 knots or less, but progged MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg suggests low end severe hail and wind gusts could
occur with any thunderstorms. While coverage should not be anywhere
near as widespread as Friday, the return of crawling storm motions
on the order of 10 mph will lead to another night of flood risks to
those areas that see a thunderstorm.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

The upper-level pattern across the CONUS isn`t expected to change
much next week. There will be a closed upper-level low over at least
a portion of the eastern half of the country, a closed upper-level
low over the southwest, and a closed upper-level high over the
Northern Plains. The latter may weaken later in the week which
allows for the upper-level pattern to resemble more of a typical
Omega Block, but the result remains the same for the entire week:
weak upper-level winds and plentiful low-level moisture.

For now, the best chance for rain will be focused on Sunday and
Monday as there is a better signal for some weak forcing.
However, there will be at least a chance for thunderstorms every
day of the week. These thunderstorms will rain themselves out
quickly owing to the nearly non-existent winds aloft. However,
they will be very slow moving, if they move at all, and will be
capable of impressive rain rates. Given the deluge of rainfall
over the past week which contributed to significant flooding
(Hereford, Amarillo, Canyon), significant river flooding (Canadian
River), and a record breaking wet May for portions of the Texas
Panhandles (officially at Dalhart and Borger), flooding will
continue to be a concern. If there is a silver lining to this next
week, it would be that the expected isolated nature of the slow
moving thunderstorms will result in more locations staying dry
than seeing any rain on any given day. That said, almost all of
the CWA is now particularly vulnerable to flooding due to very
saturated soils.

The potential for severe thunderstorms looks very low because of the
previously mentioned very weak winds aloft and relatively weak
instability due to moist adiabatic environmental lapse rates.
Would have to look to next weekend at the earliest... already
outside this long-term period... for hints of steeper mid-level
lapse rates and stronger winds aloft returning.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

Potential for stratus and thunderstorms are the main concerns for
aviation interests over the next 24 hours. Guidance suggests
MVFR/IFR stratus should already be developing but as of issuance
time, little is present outside of the Clovis area. Given moist
conditions, do still think stratus will develop, but have elected
to be optimistic given ongoing conditions, with only DHT forecast
to drop to IFR while GUY/AMA remain low end MVFR. Will closely
monitor overnight. Thunderstorms seem a certainty at AMA Friday
afternoon and have thus elected to go with a prevailing group even
this far out but expect adjustments to timing over the next 2
cycles. Thunderstorms should remain east of DHT but may affect
GUY, so have kept the PROB30 for GUY going with a small timing
adjustment. Otherwise, expect mainly south-southeasterly winds
outside of any thunderstorms that do develop.

Ferguson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                75  54  77  58 /  80  50   0  50
Beaver OK                  81  57  78  58 /  70  90  40  50
Boise City OK              78  53  75  54 /  30  20  30  60
Borger TX                  79  58  81  60 /  90  40   0  50
Boys Ranch TX              76  54  79  56 /  80  20   0  40
Canyon TX                  76  54  77  57 /  80  40  10  50
Clarendon TX               79  57  76  59 /  60  80  10  60
Dalhart TX                 76  51  76  53 /  50  10  10  60
Guymon OK                  79  55  78  56 /  60  40  20  50
Hereford TX                76  54  79  56 /  70  20  10  50
Lipscomb TX                81  57  78  59 /  60  90  30  60
Pampa TX                   76  56  78  57 /  70  70   0  60
Shamrock TX                81  58  78  59 /  60 100  20  60
Wellington TX              83  59  79  61 /  60  90  30  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday
     morning for TXZ003>005-007>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...77