


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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774 FXUS64 KAMA 111153 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 653 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 A low end risk for severe thunderstorms exists this evening. Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards. Early Saturday morning, the risk for flooding increases in the Texas Panhandle. Very heavy rain is expected with storms overnight. Daily thunderstorm chances for the next 7 days expected to potentially compound flooding concerns. A low end severe thunderstorm risk may continue as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Tonight, thunderstorms will continue across portions of the area; however, this activity will dissipate with time. Later this morning, before sunrise, thunderstorms are expected to loose their convective elements and should turn into stratiform showers before finally dying out. Today, scattered thunderstorms will form in the northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle. Another low end risk for severe thunderstorms will be present where damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards. Although, downbursts are also possible given how close the temperature/dewpoint spread should be very similar to what we experienced today. Later into the night these scattered thunderstorms are forecast to congeal into an MCS and track southward across the Texas Panhandle. While this system is active, this is when we expect our highest flood risk to unfold. The approximate time frame we are watching is from 10PM Friday to 4 AM Saturday. However, any amount of persistent rainfall could easily extend the flood risk well into Saturday. Tomorrow, some CAMs suggest that the MCS will develop into an MCV near sunrise. Moisture wrapping around this system could generate new thunderstorms during the morning. Additional storms are possible in the Texas Panhandle later in the evening. One or two could go severe, but the window of opportunity will be short since the next system will be progressing through our area fairly quickly. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 No major changes from previous forecasts. Daily max temperatures should remain below average and daily thunderstorm chances continue. The caveat concerning next week`s thunderstorms is that they may stay mostly isolated and not affect a wide array of places day-by-day. Therefore, slight chance PoPs prevail through much of the extended period. The exception right now being Wednesday, as some models show a more impactful system approaching the CWA. Rangel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail through about 00Z Saturday. From 00Z to 12Z Saturday, chances for showers and thunderstorms increases quite a bit for all three terminals. Some of the thunderstorms may become associated with heavy rainfall leading to reduced VIS, potentially down to IFR. Although widespread severe storms are not anticipated, a potential for severe storms will exist, primarily for wind gusts in excess of 50 kts. Cannot rule out some hail either. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...36