Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 190019 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
719 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

For the 00Z TAFs, wind will be the primary weather element for
this fcst cycle. Strong and gusty west winds behind a Pacific
cold front will continue this evening, then become northwest to
north later tonight and remain strong and gusty through Monday as
a second cold front moves across the region from the north.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 339 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/


March and April usually take the Panhandles on a roller coaster ride
of wild swings in temp and weather, but this year`s coaster has been
a fairly gentle ride and will continue that way the next 7 days.
The ride will however reach the highest peak temp-wise so far
this spring by late week, with many areas finally cracking through
for some 80 plus degree weather. After a few possible storms this
afternoon in northeast parts of the combined Panhandles, precip
chances will disappear again for the foreseeable future. The Gulf
of Mexico looks to open back up for business beginning late week
and moisture return will begin to increase across the southern
Plains as a wrn upr trough begins to set up. However, we`re
likely going to be on the wrong side of the dryline as we often
are this time of year.

Tonight through Monday Morning...Tough wind forecast tonight,
wish someone could tell us how much of the model progged 50-60kt
jet at 2kft will be able to mix to the sfc. Overall, went higher
than any raw model output on winds overnight and especially Mon
morning. With most models indicating those 50+ kt winds beneath
the post-frontal isothermal layer, especially in NE sections of
the area, have some concern for a few rogue High Wind Warning-
level gusts. For the most part though think 25-35G55 MPH will be
more common and plan to hold with the Wind Advisory issued earlier

Monday afternoon through Saturday...Highs will be cool Monday,
about normal Tuesday, warmer Wednesday, warmer Thursday, and then
should remain well above average through the weekend with
widespread 80s and maybe even a few 90s possible at some point.
The middle part of this week should have fairly light winds
before the winds start picking back up Fri into next weekend. With
southwest upr flow crossing those big tall rocky things to our
west, we should see off and on high clouds all week.


After critical fire weather conditions slack off later tonight, we
will be predominately concern-free fire weather-wise through
Thursday.  Though there are no synoptically-evident fire outbreak
patterns noted in the next 7 days, a return to critical fire weather
conditions looks pretty likely by late week toward the weekend.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory until noon CDT Monday for the following zones:
     Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...

     Red Flag Warning until 6 AM CDT Monday for the following zones:
     Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...

     Wind Advisory until noon CDT Monday for the following zones:

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham...Potter...Randall.

OK...Wind Advisory until noon CDT Monday for the following zones:

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.


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