467
FXUS64 KAMA 110608
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
108 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A low end risk for severe thunderstorms exists this evening.
Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards.

Early Saturday morning, the risk for flooding increases in the
Texas Panhandle. Very heavy rain is expected with storms
overnight.

Daily thunderstorm chances for the next 7 days promote flooding
concerns. A low end severe thunderstorm risk may continue as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Tonight, thunderstorms will continue across portions of the area;
however, this activity will dissipate with time. Later this
morning, before sunrise, thunderstorms are expected to loose their
convective elements and should turn into stratiform showers
before finally dying out.

Today, scattered thunderstorms will form in the northern Texas
Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle. Another low end risk for
severe thunderstorms will be present where damaging winds and hail
are the primary hazards. Although, downbursts are also possible
given how close the temperature/dewpoint spread should be very
similar to what we experienced today. Later into the night these
scattered thunderstorms are forecast to congeal into an MCS and
track southward across the Texas Panhandle. While this system is
active, this is when we expect our highest flood risk to unfold.
The approximate time frame we are watching is from 10PM Friday to
4 AM Saturday. However, any amount of persistent rainfall could
easily extend the flood risk well into Saturday.

Tomorrow, some CAMs suggest that the MCS will develop into an MCV
near sunrise. Moisture wrapping around this system could generate
new thunderstorms during the morning. Additional storms are
possible in the Texas Panhandle later in the evening. One or two
could go severe, but the window of opportunity will be short
since the next system will be progressing through our area fairly
quickly.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

No major changes from previous forecasts. Daily max temperatures
should remain below average and daily thunderstorm chances
continue. The caveat concerning next week`s thunderstorms is that
they may stay mostly isolated and not affect a wide array of
places day-by-day. Therefore, slight chance PoPs prevail through
much of the extended period. The exception right now being
Wednesday, as some models show a more impactful system approaching
the CWA.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Rain and some thunderstorms are expected to continue at the DHT
terminal this morning. This activity should slowly wane through
the night and finally cease around 09Z. AMA and GUY may experience
thunderstorms in the distance, but no impacts are anticipated
directly over the terminals. Later today, a large thunderstorm
system is forecast to sweep over the combined Panhandles. A
greater than 50% chance for storms exists for all sites tonight.
The system should clear out by the end of the TAF period, but some
linger precipitation cannot be ruled out at this time.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55