Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 241651 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

MVFR conditions will continue to work its way south behind a cold
front this afternoon. By early evening all sites should be in the
MVFR range. Some rain showers will be possible at every TAF site
overnight with the best chances at GUY. MVFR conditions may try to
improve at GUY toward the end of this forecast. North winds will
be gusty behind the cold front tonight and then the winds will
slowly decrease Wednesday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 647 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

For the 12Z TAFs, little change to previous aviation AFD
reasoning. A strong cold front will move through the TAF sites
this morning and early this afternoon with gusty north winds in
its wake for several hours. Cigs will gradually lower into the
MVFR category from north to south throughout the course of today
into this evening. The threat for showers will also increase from
north to south and affect the terminal sites from late this
afternoon through tonight with the greatest likelihood at KGUY.
There is some potential for tstm development durg this fcst cycle.
However, confidence is very low that any one particular site will
be impacted, thus precluding a mention of this element at this


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 517 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

In the upper levels, a low pressure center pushes south and east
into the Plains which causes a cold front to move through the
Panhandles today from the northwest to the southeast. This will
bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms for the area.
Forecast soundings are not enthusiastic about severe weather.
Storms are expected to continue through the night into the
morning. The upper level low continues to descend into the deep
South through Thursday while ridging builds and dominates the
western CONUS. Models are split on precip Thursday night for the
region as a weak front pushes through. Forecast soundings show
inverted V, leaving a dry surface layer. Thus for now have removed
pops for Thurs. night. By the weekend, another low pressure center
finally moves on shore in northern California and begins to send
shortwaves out ahead of it. These waves will trigger diurnal
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday through the beginning of the
work week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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