072
FXUS64 KAMA 071927
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
227 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

-Strong to severe thunderstorms tonight and again on Tuesday.

-Small break from rain chances mid week will then return with
 thunderstorm chances Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Latest satellite and water vapor imagery portrays large scale
subsidence in the column, along with dry air and/or large cap
setting up across the Panhandles in the wake of our thunderstorm
activity this morning. In-conjunction with the warm and drier air
aloft, latest 18Z RAOB data for AMA shows quite anemic shear to
support longevity of storms that attempt to break the cap this
afternoon. However, ~1600 J/kg of DCAPE along with mid level
moisture and decent mid level lapse rates around 7C/km should
support storms that move in from the southern and central Rockies
later today. Speaking of which, further to the northwest and
west, two areas of lift we are watching closely for rain chances
later on. As we have seen over the last several days, the Raton
Mesa area is beginning to develop multicell thunderstorms. The
second area we are watching is along a more potent trough axis
across South Dakota/Wyoming moving to the southeast. Both of
these features could bring a cold pool/outflow propagated line of
storms into the Panhandles later this evening into the overnight.
The northern and western Panhandles will be most favored for
convection later on today and tonight. Some storms given the
aforementioned parameters could be severe with damaging wind
gusts the primary threat. With storms over the past several days
in some locations and with notable PWAT values well over 1",
localized flooding will also be possible. This ridge roller
pattern will continue into tomorrow, almost a carbon copy of
today with storms chances late afternoon into the overnight hours,
with some storms strong to severe. High temperatures tomorrow
will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

As thew main center of the H500 high pressure system moves
towards the Four Corners region, large scale subsidence from the
eastward extent of the high should bring dry conditions to the
Panhandles mid week. Subtle H500 waves may graze the far
northeastern Panhandles with precip, but chances remain low
(<20%) at this time. Widespread storms chances then return on
Friday associated with a cold front and then again over the
coming weekend with H500 NW flow returning to the region for
mountain based convection. High temperatures will be near to
slightly above average for the rest of the work week and then
slightly below average by the coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout most of the 18Z TAF period
at all TAF sites. The only exception would be around the 02-06Z
timeframe where PROB30 for TSRA conditions will be possible. Some
TSRA could have erratic winds. VFR conditions expected past 06Z to
the end of the TAF period. Winds will be S/SE becoming more
northerly towards the end of the TAF period at 5-15 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29