Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 202338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
638 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

All three TAF sites will be VFR for the 00Z period. Winds will
move from out of the SW 10-15kt early, then become more E between
03-05Z around 10kt for DHT and AMA. GUY winds will be out of the
N at 10kts gusting 20kts until about 04Z then will match the other
sites with E wind. Some high clouds will be present early on
around 15kft and gradually become clear after 03Z.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

A dry northwesterly upper flow will prevail Wednesday with an
upper ridge developing over the Panhandles Thursday. The upper
ridge will push east by Friday as a short wave trough approaches
from the west and lee surface trough develops across eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. Surface
low develops by Thursday over eastern Colorado/northeastern New
Mexico which tracks east into western and southwestern Kansas
Friday and deepens. Surface trough likely to sharpen into dry line
Friday as it pushes east into the western and central portions of
the Panhandles. The surface trough/dry line expected to mix as far
east as the Caprock by late Friday. Westerly winds expected to
increase to near Wind Advisory criteria of 25 to 35 mph with gusts
near 50 mph Friday afternoon across the western portions of the
Panhandles. Pacific cold front to push east out of the Panhandles
Friday night and early Saturday.

Slightly cooler and winds not as strong Saturday behind the cold
front. Lee surface trough and surface low develops once again by
Saturday night and Sunday which deepens on Sunday. Stronger
downsloping southwesterly winds Sunday with much warmer and
continued dry conditions. Surface low to move south into the
Oklahoma Panhandle Sunday night bringing a cold front southward
into the northern Panhandles by Monday morning. A closed upper low
will track east across the Great Basin region Monday as low level
moisture advects northwest into the Panhandles ahead of the closed
upper low and surface trough and surface low. Convection may be
possible mainly along and east of the Caprock by Monday afternoon
and Monday night.


A brief lull in the fire weather can be expected at this time
through Thursday. However, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions will return by Friday and continuing through Sunday
across most, if not all, of the Panhandles. A lee surface trough
will develop by Wednesday across eastern New Mexico and eastern
Colorado with a surface low developing over eastern
Colorado/northeastern New Mexico by Thursday. The surface low will
track into western and southwestern Kansas Friday dragging a
surface trough/dry line into the central Panhandles to near the
Caprock by late in the day Friday. Strong downsloping west and
southwest winds by Friday afternoon may prompt a Wind Advisory for
the western Panhandles as humidities plummet to around 10 percent
or possibly lower. 20 foot wind speeds are expected to increase to
around 20 to 30 mph or 25 to 35 mph with gusts near 50 mph mainly
across the western third of the Texas Panhandle. Critical fire
weather conditions should develop across much of the Panhandles
Friday with more elevated fire weather across the eastern third or
so of the Panhandles, along and off the Caprock, ahead of the
surface trough/dry line. The axis of the 850 mb thermal ridge on
Friday is expected to be right over the Panhandles. Extremely
critical fire weather conditions could develop over the far
western Texas Panhandle near the Texas and New Mexico state line
or the western row of counties in the Texas Panhandle and possibly
as far east as the Amarillo and Canyon areas.

Elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions should also
develop Saturday with critical fire weather Sunday across the
western two-thirds of the Panhandles near a Guymon to Claude line
with elevated fire weather conditions mainly along and east of
that line. The western portions of the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles will see the best chances for critical fire weather
Sunday and possibly Sunday. 850 mb thermal ridge to develop over
the Panhandles again Sunday. Saturday more likely to be elevated
most areas.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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