Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211719
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1219 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs:

MVFR conditions will remain at KAMA for the beginning of the
period as low ceilings have built in from the south. Ceilings will
lift later this afternoon. Otherwise, terminals are going to be
VFR until later tonight. MVFR conditions may arise again tonight
as a system builds in with southwesterly flow aloft. This
disturbance will bring rain chances tonight with thunderstorms
developing in eastern New Mexico. KDHT has the best chance to be
impacted by thunderstorms and hence the addition of the PROB30
group. Confidence was less for KAMA and KGUY, so decided to leave
this mention out for these terminals at this time. Models have
convection dissipating before reaching KAMA and KGUY. This may
need to be addressed in subsequent TAFs to possibly add
thunderstorms into KAMA and KGUY if confidence increases again.
These conditions may result in MVFR tonight.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 636 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

AVIATION...12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals through the period, though there is some low stratus
close to KAMA that could move over the site around 21/12Z thru
21/16Z. Otherwise, southerly winds will increase to BTWN 5 to 15
kts with gusts up to 25 kts through 22/00Z and dropping off after
sunset. Latest hi-resolution guidance suggests that a line of
thunderstorms could approach KDHT BTWN 22/03Z-22/07Z and KAMA/KGUY
BTWN 22/07Z-22/10Z. Have handled this with PROB30 groups for now
as confidence is not high enough to have as prevailing category.

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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