Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171150 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
650 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

For the 12Z TAFs, south and southeast winds are forecast to
increase and become gusty by mid morning and persist through most
of this fcst cycle. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across much of the OK and TX Panhandles later this
afternoon and continue into the evening hours, with KGUY and KAMA
having the greatest likelihood of being impacted.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 502 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018/

Potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
across most of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Very few changes have been made to the forecast.  Thunderstorm
coverage expected to be higher than that of Wednesday, due to
stronger moist low-level flow and an incoming upper-level jet
streak in diffluent flow.  MUCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg are
possible with shear values of 30 to 60 kt expected late this
afternoon and early evening.  Dryline is expected to hold close
to the New Mexico state line this afternoon, with a westward
retreat early this evening as southeast low-level jet develops and
intensifies.  Severe threat should come to an end by midnight.

On Friday, dryline expected to mix farther east into Panhandles,
with thunderstorm chances confined to the eastern half of forecast
area during the afternoon and evening.  Another upper-level jet
streak will assist in pushing dryline to far eastern sections
Friday night before polar cold front moves in from the northwest
late Friday night and Saturday.  Front may be poised across
southeast sections Saturday afternoon and Saturday night,
providing additional support for thunderstorms.  Residual
moisture across southern sections may support thunderstorms on

Pops offered by Blend in later periods exhibit unrealistic
distribution of values.  Have smoothed and leaned toward WPC
guidance Sunday night and beyond, with generally southern
sections being favored for showers and thunderstorms.  03


Elevated fire weather conditions are expected west of the dryline
today across the far western Panhandles.  Thunderstorm developing
along the dryline may initially be high-based and produce low
precipitation, thus dry lightning can`t be ruled out this afternoon
and evening in western sections.  Depending upon rainfall today
and tonight, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
possible Friday afternoon across the western half of the
Panhandles with drier conditions and breezy southwest winds.
Haines index values of 5 to 6 can be expected both days.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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