Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 150524

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1224 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018


For the 06Z TAFs:

Conditions at the terminals should deteriorate quickly to IFR/MVFR
for low ceilings. Didn`t take the terminals all the way down to
IFR at this time, but did mention 1000 foot ceilings which is
borderline IFR. This is the main impact for this cycle of TAFs.
Otherwise, there is a small chance for precipitation today as
well, which could impact the terminals later tonight somewhere
around 00Z. Confidence wasn`t high enough to include this in the
current cycle but may be added in subsequent TAFs.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018/

00Z Issuance...VFR conditions will likely lead into IFR or
possibly lower cigs after 08Z due to a cold front. May see some
patchy fog but feel low cigs are more likely. There may also be
some early morning showers behind the front especially for
northern sites but confidence is too low attm to include. Winds
are expected to become northerly and remain aob 15kts. Towards the
very tail end of the period, the low cloud deck should begin
lifting and clearing.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018/

Persistent Rex Block begins to break down early Tuesday as next
Pacific shortwave trof draws closer to southern California.  This
should lead to mid-level flow trending from southwest to near-
zonal by late Tuesday, with strength of flow becoming light to
moderate.  Rising 500 mb heights on Wednesday over the Rockies
causes flow to become northwest over Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
by Wednesday afternoon.  Rockies ridge passes forecast area late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with light to moderate
southwest flow resuming.  Next digging trof reaches Great Basin
Thursday night, leading to strengthening southwest flow over
Panhandles by early Friday, with southwest flow aloft expected to
continue through the weekend.

At the surface, cold front advancing southward in overtaking dryline.
Southeast Texas Panhandle ahead of dryline remains ripe for severe
thunderstorms this evening.  Fairly rich and deep moisture
pooling behind cold front will keep CAPE values much higher than
in a typical post-dryline environment.  Convective Inhibition is
forecast to suppress thunderstorm development over much of the
area this evening, but will monitor trends and developments.
Models not in complete agreement regarding positions of frontal
boundary and dryline.  After some retreat of frontal boundary
this evening and overnight, this boundary may push through
northwest two-thirds of forecast area by Tuesday morning, with it
perhaps stalling across the southeast Texas Panhandle Tuesday
afternoon and evening.  Pops remain highest in east Tuesday
afternoon and evening due to possible stalled front.

Models diverge on details, but idea of robust moisture return over
at least the eastern half of the Panhandles Wednesday and
Wednesday night.  Chances for thunderstorms will remain in mainly
eastern sections Wednesday through Saturday.  By Saturday night,
increasing moist low-level flow expected to lead to greater
occurrence of nocturnal thunderstorms also through end of the
forecast, with eastern sections continuing to be favored.  03


Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the far
western Texas Panhandle this afternoon through this evening.
Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
beyond should help to mitigate widespread fire weather concerns.
Depending upon how much, if any rain falls, elevated fire weather
conditions may develop across portions of the Panhandles Friday.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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