Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 131752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1252 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018


For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid
TAF period. Small chance for light rain briefly at KAMA at the
beginning of this period, but chances were so low decided to leave
this mention out. Otherwise, mid-level clouds should stick around
through the beginning of the TAF period. Breezy winds are expected
tomorrow beginning late morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 638 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be out southeast through about 15Z and then
shift more southerly thereafter. BKN-OVC cigs in the 4 to 8kft
range expected through about 06Z. VCSH possible at KGUY through
03Z. Cig`s expected to improve after 06Z end of the TAF period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/

Weak upper trough on track to move across the Panhandles early
this morning. This trough will bring cooler high temperatures
across the area today, but it will also brought some light precip
across the central Oklahoma Panhandle early this morning. Have
retained low end POPs through the day as this trough continues to
move across the area with light accumulation possible.

Upper ridging is expected to dominate the pattern on Wednesday
which will allow out temperatures to rocket back into the 70s.
As the ridge slides east of the Panhandles on Thursday, a
elongated trough will be approaching the Panhandles. The effects
of this trough will be seen as a lee side low develops across
eastern Colorado. The strong downsloping winds will result in the
warmest day of the week as high temperature`s reach into the 80s.
While the Panhandles are expected to be in the dryslot portion of
the system, some models are hinting at the possibility of light
precip across the eastern Panhandles. Have held off on mentioning
these chances in the forecast as this is a relatively new

Overnight Thursday, the upper trough is forecast to close off as
it moves into the eastern Colorado plains. A pacific front
associated with the closed low moves across the Panhandles on
Friday. This will limit the warming potential to keep highs mainly
in the 70s. Brief ridging expected on Saturday before another
upper low moves across the Panhandles on Sunday. Models continue
to struggle with the track of the upper low which will have a
large impact on which side of the system the Panhandles will fall
under. For now, have maintained a dry and breezy forecast. Zonal
flow aloft expected Monday and Tuesday.

Light winds will prohibit fire weather concerns today across the

Wednesday through Monday could see elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the Panhandles. On
Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions are spotty due to
relative humidity hovering around 20 percent. On Thursday, the
western portions of the combined Panhandles will likely see
critical fire weather condition as relative humidty drops into the
low teens as southwest winds increase to 20 to 25 mph. As
mentioned in the discussion above, models have begun to hint at
the possibility of some light precip across the eastern

Pacific front on Friday will usher in much drier air across the
western Panhandles. Afternoon relative humidity for this area
could drop into the single digits. Wind speeds could be the
limiting factor for the areal coverage of critical fire weather
conditions as they will be hovering between 15 to 20 mph.

Elevated fire weather conditions possible from the far western
portion of the combined Panhandles as relative humidity drops
below 15 percent on Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions
possible across the western half of the Panhandles on Sunday due
to strong southwesterly winds.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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