Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171653

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1153 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

18Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 18Z
Sunday. Southeast to south winds 5 to 15 knots will become south
to southwest and increasing to around 10 to 20 knots after 12Z to
14Z Sunday and then 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 30 to 35
knots by 18Z Sunday at all three TAF sites.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 605 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

Light winds will pick up out of the south and southeast by mid day
at speeds of 14 to 18 knots with higher gusts. Winds will then
decrease with sunset. Skies are expected to remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

A weak cold front continues to work its way southwest and will
likely make its way through the TX Panhandle by 12Z. In the wake
of the cold front, northeasterly winds will keep conditions cool
throughout the morning. As we go past 18Z, a surface trough will
develop across eastern New Mexico which will shift winds from
northeasterly to southeasterly and southerly. This will advect
some warmer temperatures into the region during the afternoon
hours allowing high temperatures to range from the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Going into the day on Sunday, a rather potent shortwave trough
will make its way across New Mexico and move into our western
areas during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Along the trough will
be a Pacific surface front moving through and this will shift the
winds to southwesterly and westerly along a steep height gradient
and 850-700 hPa omega gradient and will assist in the strong
winds that would follow from Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening
across the central and western TX Panhandle. Downstream of the
developing vort max at the base of the mid level trough in-
conjunction with a 110-125 kt. jet streak upstream of the trough
axis providing some good upper level jet dynamics to support a
surface low development. Latest 17/00Z model and probabilistic
data shows some discrepancies of the center of the low pressure
system by Sunday evening ranging from as far north as SW Kansas to
as far south as the NE TX Panhandle from around Waka to Lipscomb.
This will also determine the set up of the sharpest height
gradient south of the center of the low for the strongest westerly
winds which at this time will likely be across the southern TX
Panhandle. Wind products may need to be issued if the high-res
model continue to illustrate these high values. In the northeast
Panhandles, especially areas east of the center of the low, enough
surface based moisture with a deep mixing layer may produce some
scattered showers and storms, with gusty winds being the main
threat going into Sunday evening.

By early Monday morning, a second more potent cold front will move
south from the central Plains across the region. Right along the
front with its proximity to the center of the low will produce
strong winds that will shift from westerly to northerly behind the
cold front. Winds maybe strong enough to warrant some wind
headlines. As the main low pressure system continues to move well
to the east of the Panhandles by Monday afternoon, winds will
eventually diminish along with precip chances across the northern
Panhandles. High temperatures on Monday will drop to below

Going through the remainder of the forecast, conditions across
the region will remain dry with mid level northwesterly and
westerly winds and a series of lee troughs across eastern New
Mexico helping to establish a southerly surface flow. This will
provide warm temperatures above average to the end the forecast


Some elevated conditions across the far western Panhandles as
southerly winds will pick up this afternoon as min RH values will
range between 16-20%.

A Fire Weather Watch continues for the entire Panhandle on
Sunday. Min RH values of 11-15% in-conjunction with 20 ft.
southwest winds of 25-35 kts will provide elevated to critical
fire weather conditions.

Elevated to critical Fire Weather conditions are expected to
continue into Monday across the most of the Combined Panhandles.
Fire Weather conditions should diminish as we go into the middle
of next week followed by some chances again as we go toward the
end of the week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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