Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 102255

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
455 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

00Z TAF Cycle

Northerly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 to 35 knots at all
three TAF sites will gradually diminish to around 10 to 20 knots
after 16Z to 20Z Sunday. VFR conditions expected at all three TAF
sites with considerable high level and also mid level cloudiness.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 132 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018/

A cold front continues to push south across the central plains this
afternoon. The front was located from near PUB to HLC early this
afternoon.  A surface trough has moved southeast of the Panhandles.
The winds will pick up behind this front tonight as an upper level
short wave trough located over northwest Nebraska/southwest South
Dakota dives southeast which will help drive the front southward.
The Panhandles will be in the right front quad of the upper level
jet overnight which will help with downward motions which will help
to bring the stronger winds aloft down toward the surface.

Winds will then decrease during the day on Sunday as the upper level
short wave moves further to our east and takes the jet with it. On
Sunday, another short wave trough will approach the Panhandles from
the west.  This wave is expected to join up with the previous wave
that will be departing our area on Sunday afternoon. As this western
wave emerges onto the plains it may bring some light rain showers as
far east the far southwest Texas Panhandle.  Have gone ahead and
added some slight chance of rain showers to this area for this

High temperatures on Sunday will be back below normal across the

A northwest flow aloft will continue until an upper level ridge
pushes onto the plains by mid week.  A large upper level storm
system then slides southward along the west coast and our surface
winds start to pick up again starting Wednesday lasting into next
weekend in response to the lowering heights over the rockies.  The
southwest flow aloft over the Panhandles ahead of the west coast
storm may bring a couple of minor short wave troughs which may
enhance winds from time to time, but most likely these will not
bring any precipitation to the region.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Sunday as
breezy northerly winds couple with relative humidity values around
20 percent or below.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Wednesday through Friday. South to southwest winds will increase and
relative humidity values will most likely fall below 20 percent,
especially across the western half of the Panhandles.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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