Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 211448 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
948 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018


SW rotating around the main upper low centered near SE CO has
sparked SCT convection across the region once again. Some of the
stronger cells has produced small hail and occassional lighting
strikes. SFC low is positioned south of the area and winds are
backing to more nrly direction except for in the east which is
still holding onto an easterly direction. Based on trends and
latest guidance, believe low clouds are going to be slow to erode
and precip is going to be slow to push completely east as well.
Given this, lowered temps most areas showing highs more in low to
mid 50s. Still possible some areas struggle to reach 50. Also
raised pops in the E-SE to solid likely (70%). Showing POPs
tapering off to low chance in far west.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 558 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/


For the 12Z TAFs:

Confidence is pretty high the terminals will be stuck in IFR for
at least the next few hours due to saturation in the lower levels.
Eventually conditions will improve with ceilings and visibilities
going into MVFR later this morning. KAMA and KDHT are expected to
get to VFR by this afternoon, but KGUY may be stuck in MVFR for
the remainder of this cycle.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

A closed upper low over the central and southern Rockies this
morning will track east southeast across the central and southern
Plains states tonight and Sunday. Hi-Res model solutions keep most
of the precip across the eastern half of the forecast area today
with drier conditions in the west. Some patchy fog likely across
the western portions of the Panhandles mainly this morning.
Northwesterly flow aloft will develop on the backside of the
departing upper low Sunday into early next week.

Initially, the northwesterly flow aloft will be dry early in the
period however northern stream closed upper low tracks south and
east out of the northern and central Rockies Tuesday. Upper
low/short wave trough then moves through the central Plains states
by Wednesday and Wednesday night. Surface low develops over the
southern Rockies Monday and Monday night which will bring a cold
front through the Panhandles Tuesday along with chances for
convection Tuesday through Wednesday.

An active northern stream and northwesterly flow aloft keeps
chances for convection by Thursday and Thursday night as another
upper trough tracks south and east towards the Panhandles by late
next week. Cold front to push into the forecast area by late
Thursday and then warmer and drier by next weekend. ECMWF much
more bullish with precip Thursday into early Friday than the GFS
but just too early to have such high confidence in the ECMWF
solution at this time.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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