Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 190525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1225 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds
will be rather strong out of the west at 25-35 kts with gusts over
45 kts at times. Wind shifts behind the front to northwest will
occur around 06-07Z for KDHT/KGUY and closer to 09Z Monday for
KAMA. Winds will rather be strong throughout most of the day
until we get past 00Z Tuesday where winds will diminish to
sustained around 10-15 kts out of the north to the end of the TAF



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1113 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

Have retained inherited highlights regarding Red Flag Warning and
Wind Advisory based on latest observations. In addition, have
updated public and fire weather products to account for current
trends and to remove old headlines.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 339 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/


March and April usually take the Panhandles on a roller coaster ride
of wild swings in temp and weather, but this year`s coaster has been
a fairly gentle ride and will continue that way the next 7 days.
The ride will however reach the highest peak temp-wise so far
this spring by late week, with many areas finally cracking through
for some 80 plus degree weather. After a few possible storms this
afternoon in northeast parts of the combined Panhandles, precip
chances will disappear again for the foreseeable future. The Gulf
of Mexico looks to open back up for business beginning late week
and moisture return will begin to increase across the southern
Plains as a wrn upr trough begins to set up. However, we`re
likely going to be on the wrong side of the dryline as we often
are this time of year.

Tonight through Monday Morning...Tough wind forecast tonight,
wish someone could tell us how much of the model progged 50-60kt
jet at 2kft will be able to mix to the sfc. Overall, went higher
than any raw model output on winds overnight and especially Mon
morning. With most models indicating those 50+ kt winds beneath
the post-frontal isothermal layer, especially in NE sections of
the area, have some concern for a few rogue High Wind Warning-
level gusts. For the most part though think 25-35G55 MPH will be
more common and plan to hold with the Wind Advisory issued earlier

Monday afternoon through Saturday...Highs will be cool Monday,
about normal Tuesday, warmer Wednesday, warmer Thursday, and then
should remain well above average through the weekend with
widespread 80s and maybe even a few 90s possible at some point.
The middle part of this week should have fairly light winds
before the winds start picking back up Fri into next weekend. With
southwest upr flow crossing those big tall rocky things to our
west, we should see off and on high clouds all week.


After critical fire weather conditions slack off later tonight, we
will be predominately concern-free fire weather-wise through
Thursday.  Though there are no synoptically-evident fire outbreak
patterns noted in the next 7 days, a return to critical fire weather
conditions looks pretty likely by late week toward the weekend.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for the following zones:
     Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...

     Red Flag Warning until 6 AM CDT early this morning for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...

OK...Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for the following zones:



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