Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 141746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1246 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z forecast period.
Southwest winds will be sustained 20-25 kts through 00Z Thursday
before winds diminish to around 15 kts. Towards the end of the TAF
period starting around 15Z, winds will pick up once again out of
the SW between 20-25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts at times. Besides
a few scattered mid clouds around KAMA toward the end of the
forecast period, mostly clear skies are expected throughout all
TAF sites.



PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 500 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018/

Several days of fire weather concerns remains the theme of the
forecast through the weekend.

Upper ridge axis moves over the Panhandles today to raise high
temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees compared to Tuesday. Surface
winds will also be on the rise in response to the development of
lee side troughing across eastern Colorado. The result is south-
southwesterly winds of 20 to 25 mph with higher gusts throughout
the day. The lee side troughing deepens on Thursday before closing
off by the late morning hours. This will make Thursday one of our
more windy days of the forecast. In fact, we will be just below
winds advisory criteria (sustained winds 35 MPH for three hours)
across the western counties of the Panhandles. As the low moves
into southeastern Colorado during the afternoon, winds will become
more out of the southwest for the on Caprock county while the
off-Caprock counties will remain more out of the south. Some
models continue to hint at the possibility of precip across the
southeastern Texas Panhandle, forecast soundings show that a
significant dry sub-cloud layer. As such virga is more likely
rather than anything reaching the ground during the daylight

Thursday night a Pacific front is on tap to move across the
Panhandles to switch our winds out of the west. This front will
bring much drier air to the area Friday afternoon. Relative
humidty of single digits are entirely possible despite the cooler
temperatures. A sizable change from the previous forecast is the
lowered expectations on wind speeds on Friday. This change is due
to the upper low moving into eastern Kansas by Friday morning. As
such, have trended lower to account for this change but have
tempered the drastic drop.

Friday night, a cold front is expected to enter the Oklahoma
Panhandle before stalling across the northern Texas Panhandle
early Saturday morning. This shouldn`t have too much impact on
high temperatures on Saturday as the front will retreat to the
north throughout the day. On Sunday, another lee side low is
expected to develop over SE Colorado. This will help to ramp u our
winds and temperatures once again.

A cold front will move through the Panhandles Sunday night to
bring a cool start to the work week.

Elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions are expected
across the Panhandles this afternoon. Afternoon relative humidity
is expected to drop into the 16 to 20 percent range as south-
southwest winds ramp up into the 20 to 25 mph range.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Oklahoma
Panhandle as well as the northern and western Texas Panhandle on
Thursday. Strong downsloping winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher
gusts will be the result of a strong lee side low moving in the
SE Colorado. The combination of well above average afternoon high
temperatures and low dew points will result in afternoon relative
humidity values from 13 to 18 percent. Cloud cover across the
southeastern Texas Panhandle could limit fire weather conditions
to the elevated to briefly critical category. A Fire Weather Watch
remains in affect for the critical fire weather area outlined
above. Be aware that a wind shift out of the west is expected
overnight as a pacific front moves through.

Friday could see a combination of elevated and critical fire
weather conditions. Recent model trends of lower surface winds
has resulted in a greater level of uncertainty as to the location
and severity of the fire weather conditions. Should this trend
continue then elevated fire weather may be more likely.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the western
half of the combined Panhandles on Saturday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible on
Sunday across the entire Panhandles. The most favorable location
for critical fire weather conditions would be across the
southwestern Texas Panhandle as this is where the strongest winds
are anticipated.

Elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions are possible
on Monday across the majority of the Panhandles.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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