Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 142045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
345 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Early morning convection moving off the Trans-pecos region that
was not well depicted in shorterm guidance has spread some cirrus
over the western South Plains along the NM/TX state line and may
hold back some of the convection expected to begin over the next
couple of hours but for only a short amount of time. A second
round of convection in the the same area of the Trans-Pecos has
initiated as expected. SPC analysis shows strong surfaced base
CAPE from 2500 J/Kg in the southeast South Plains to 5000 J/kg
over Childress and little to no inhibition. This will lead to more
coverage and intensity than what unfolded last night in the
northern Rolling Plains near Estelline. Anemic bulk shear
(20-25kts) and low 0-1km helicity should lead to a more
multicelluar mode of storms as mentioned in earlier update. Can`t
rule out a weakly rotating storm at this point, where the largest
hail would be expected up to golf ball size with maybe even larger
in isolated spots. Wind gusts up to 70 mph will also be possible
with the strongest storms.

The southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains are also in
the exit region of relatively local H50 divergence while H70 temps
are around 10-11C which is a couple of degrees cooler than
yesterday leading to steeper lapse rates. Tornadoes are not much
of a concern given poor ventilation for updrafts, elevated bases,
weak steering flow and low 0-1km helicity.

Overall, rinse and repeat for tomorrow at the surface as another
dryline sets up between the I27/87 corridor and the escarpment.
But divergent flow from the trough to our west today will become
more zonal and eventually northwest by the evening hours which
will shift mid and upper level instability further south toward
the I20 corridor. Given lower dewpoints and best instability to
our south, convection in our area is most likely going to be
elevated along a weak warm front as surface low pressure deepens
in eastern New Mexico. Storm chances persist for most of our CWA
through the week as persistent trough to our west remains
favorable for daily dryline development, but overall weak forcing
to limit vigorous widespread convection. The increased moisture
will help keep temperatures in the low to mid 90s and not the 100
degree days we`ve seen recently with steady mild overnights.




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