Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 151737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1237 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Strong southwesterly winds will persist through the rest of
today, with some blowing dust possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Winds will
ease somewhat after sunset but not as much as usual as westerly
winds pickup behind a weak surface trough later tonight. There`s
also a slight chance of some elevated thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening, that would be most likely to affect KLBB with the
potential of enhanced wind gusts if in the vicinity of the


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018/

Fire weather concerns are not expected to let up over the next
several days.

The main story of fire weather will continue today. Winds aloft will
be relatively weak today. These winds will not be on the increase
until this afternoon when the upper level short wave trough
approaches the region. This will certainly prevent the maximum winds
from being realized with the strong wind speeds aloft to the west of
the area. The strongest height gradient is not expected to move
overhead until this evening. Also, very strong surface lee
cyclogenesis will occur in eastern Colorado. A stream of mid level
moisture/clouds will continue to move over the region today but the
extent is less than previously thought. This will mostly affect the
Rolling Plains and less so for areas up on the caprock. There is
also still a potential for dry lightning with this mid level
moisture. Weak instability will be present mostly off the caprock.
Lastly, strong downsloping winds will allow temperatures to soar
well above seasonal averages with values on the order of 15-20
degrees above normal.

We will continue to see strong winds on Friday though they are not
anticipated to be as strong as today with upper level short wave
ridging overhead. Strong mid level winds will still be rotating
around the back side of the departing short waves trough. Extreme
subsidence on Friday afternoon will bring vast dry air down to the
surface. Continued warm temperatures will lead to afternoon relative
humidity values close to five percent. The GFS is now more in line
with the ECMWF for Saturday with a farther south position to the
upper level trough. This may allow the weak cold front to push into
the South Plains. As a result, winds will be relatively light on
Saturday with an increase in low level moisture. Areas near the
Texas/New Mexico state line may still see elevated fire weather

This reprieve from fire weather conditions on Saturday will be short
lived. A similar pattern will emerge on Sunday showing a strong
resemblance to today`s pattern. Timing of the short wave trough
could be more favorable as well leading to a windy day.
Unfortunately, we will still be under the influence of a strong
height gradient aloft on Monday afternoon but with strong
northwesterly winds. The surface air will be just as dry leading to
another potential fire weather day. A cold front late Monday may end
this streak.


Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for TXZ021>044.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>035-039-

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-027-033-039.



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