


Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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694 FXUS64 KLUB 120519 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1219 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms tonight through early Saturday morning, then diminishing chances this afternoon. - Cooler than normal temperatures expected through the weekend. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A lot of things to discuss for this short term package. Let`s start with the upper level pattern. A high pressure system remains to our west over the coast of SoCal and a secondary high persists to our east over the Gulf Coast states. A positively tilted trough sits in between the two upper highs directly over the Great Plains. Upper level flow will gradually shift from northwest to north as the upper trough expands over portions of Texas Panhandle and North Texas through the day. On the surface, light southeasterly flow will continue. The outflow boundary ahead of the line of storms will surge through our region shifting winds to the north to northeast. Following the outflow, a cold front is progged to track southward through the CWA tomorrow morning. Cooler air following the front and mostly cloudy skies will cool temperatures about 10 degrees below normal with highs in the 80s. Light northerly flow will prevail through today. Shower and thunderstorm chances for today are uncertain at the moment as it is dependent on the placement of the front. Current models have the cold front surging out of the CWA keeping all thunderstorms just south of the CWA. As the location of the front is uncertain, NBM PoPs have been lowered to chance. If any thunderstorms develop in our region, weak instability parameters will keep them sub- severe. Main threat with any storms will be heavy rainfall with localized flooding with PWAT values from 1.5 to 2 inches. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 An upper level trough will be overhead at the start of the long term period with precipitation likely ongoing. This trough is now progged to take a slight shift to the south/southeast Sunday with rain chances shifting that direction as well. The upcoming forecast will reflect that shift as well with a dry forecast now for the northwestern corner of the area and the highest PoPs and QPF shifting to the southeast as well, but with high chance PoPs and potential for locally heavy rainfall lingering across the southern Rolling Plains and adjacent areas to the north and west. Beyond Sunday the trough will get shunted slowly westward while also undergoing some weakening as the subtropical high along the Gulf Coast attempts to expand westward. Slight chance to chance PoPs, mainly diurnally-driven look reasonable at least through Thursday given proximity of trough and associated mid-level moisture while the pattern also suggests temperatures near to slightly above normal for highs and near to a bit above normal for lows. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Continued VFR with light winds outside of TS. Line of TS moving slowly SE from CVS-HRX-AMA is likely to lose steam in the coming hours, although scattered SHRA and some thunder at times will be most likely at PVW after 08Z and less so at LBB and CDS thereafter. Additional SHRA and some TS look to loiter through the morning hours before ending toward midday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...09