000
FXUS64 KLUB 210555
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1255 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.AVIATION...
Occasional showers, perhaps a brief/weak thunderstorm, will
affect KCDS through Saturday morning. Both KPVW and KLBB could
also see a few showers though the better chances will be north and
northeast of the terminals. Instead, a rare period of good low-
level moisture has already brought MVFR cigs to KLBB and KPVW, and
KCDS will likely follow soon. In fact, all three terminals have a
good chance of dropping to IFR for a period early Saturday
morning. A cold front will bring a northerly wind shift by mid to
late morning and ceilings should gradually lift. KLBB and KPVW
is expected to return to VFR this afternoon, though KCDS may
linger at MVFR levels. Isolated to widely scattered convection may
regenerate Saturday afternoon, though confidence this activity
will directly impact any terminal is low.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The most impactful part of the forecast will be the next 12 hours as
a strong upper level low over the four corners moves southeast.
Surface winds are sustained 25 to 35 mph this afternoon out ahead of
the low, so a Wind Advisory was issued through 7 pm for the western
South Plains and far southwestern Panhandle. Otherwise, the forecast
remains fairly on track with regard to severe storms this afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are firing up along the edge of the
Caprock early this afternoon. High res models have the main line
of storms initiating along the dryline near the NM/TX state line
late this afternoon and slowing moving east. Dewpoints are still
in the upper 30s, though strong southeast winds should continue to
bring moisture northward. A narrow band of instability will be
aligned along the state line combined with plenty of lift for
storms to initiate. While CAPE values are modest, both shear and
STP values are higher which would support some rotating storms.
SPC included this area in the Day 1 Slight Risk. The severe
potential should drop off after sunset as instability decreases.
Will keep the likely PoPs for most of the area through the night.
Rain chances will shift mostly to the Rolling Plains on Saturday
as the low continues to move east.

Upper level flow will shift to the northwest on Sunday and will
help temperatures moderate into the upper 60s on Sunday and 70s
on Monday. Downsloping surface winds will allow highs to reach the
80s on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front.

A series of upper level lows will move across the northern Plains
into the Great Lakes through the week. The first will push a cold
front through the South Plains on Tuesday night. The GFS has a
pretty good area of precip over the Panhandle and South Plains
through Wednesday afternoon. The ECMWF has the precip slightly
further east into Oklahoma. For now have PoPs 20-50% for Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The next front will approach on Friday.
While models are showing some precip, the bulk of the moisture is
shifted further south.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

23