339
FXUS64 KOUN 271635
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Very active day expected across Oklahoma and western north Texas as
multiple rounds of severe storms will impact the area.

A subtle wave will get things started later this morning as it
initiates storms across northwest Texas that will then move/develop
northeast across southwest into western and perhaps central Oklahoma
during the first part of the day today. Even at this time of day the
environment will be conducive for severe storms and even though
large hail will be the primary hazard, soundings would suggest there
is at least some tornado risk as well. Some questions remain as to
how this activity will evolve during the day, but is currently
expected to move off to the north and northeast during the early
afternoon.

In the wake of the morning convection anticipate airmass across the
area to destabilize through the afternoon to the east of the dryline
which will be located across western Oklahoma southward into western
north Texas. As the approaching large-scale trough and associated
lift interacts on the dryline, expected another round or two of
scattered thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the dryline.
With upwards of 3000-3500 J/kg of CAPE along with deep layer shear
of 40-50kts the environment will support supercells with the
potential for very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes(some
strong tornadoes possible as well). Wind fields will continue to
strengthen late in the day and into the evening with llj
development. This will also increase tornado potential with any
supercell storms.

This activity is expected to grow upscale into a slow-moving squall-
line with damaging wind gusts and some continued risk of tornadoes
the main severe hazards as we go deeper into the evening and
overnight. The slow eastward progression and high precipitable water
will also lead to increased flooding threat. A Flood Watch remains
in effect through tonight for portions central into eastern Oklahoma.

To the west of the dryline across far west/northwest Oklahoma there
will be a period of elevated to perhaps near critical fire weather
conditions that develop this afternoon. Will issue another RFD for
that area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Overnight storms will linger into Sunday, mainly across southeast
Oklahoma, where heavy rainfall and severe risk will continue. All
this activity should shift east of the area by late in the day
Sunday. Some drier air will then move into the area with a couple of
drier days. A minor wave will work through the area on Monday, but
rain chances associated with this will be minimal.

South winds return Tuesday and with veered low level flow, much
warmer 850mb temps will result in a much warmer day. Significant
differences with respect to precip occur Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night. With southwest flow does appear there is a chance of
precip, but GFS looks a bit overdone.

Some rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the remainder of
the week. We do look to remain in modest southwest flow and
sufficient instability will be present for the potential for some
severe weather just about any day from Wednesday through Friday, no
widespread severe currently is expected.

A rather strong cold front will bring some cooler/drier weather by
the end of the and into the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across western and
northern Oklahoma and western north Texas through the afternoon
with the potential for large hail and strong tornadoes. Recent
short-term guidance has suggested that storms will be arriving a
bit later into central Oklahoma (around 3-5 PM), and these storms
will also bring the threat of large hail and tornadoes
(potentially strong). Tonight, there is a high potential for
repeated thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall across parts of
central, southern, and southeastern Oklahoma. This activity could
exit our forecast area as early as 7-8 AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  60  79  56 /  80  70  20   0
Hobart OK         83  56  80  53 /  80  40   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  79  59  81  56 /  70  80   0   0
Gage OK           86  51  78  48 /  30  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     80  59  80  50 /  80  70  40  10
Durant OK         81  62  77  61 /  70  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ020-025-026-028>032-
     039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01