Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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050
FXUS63 KPAH 231656
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1156 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Quiet weather today through Thursday night with high pressure the
rule, and a frontal boundary just off to our south. Some high
clouds at times today. Our next chance of precip comes Friday
when return flow sets up and mid level ridging across the area
breaks down. Will carry small chances for showers and storms
Friday/Friday night. Otherwise temps to remain above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

The holiday weekend forecast remains challenging.  ECMWF and the
Canadian have been fairly consistent taking a surface low/upper low
up through the central/eastern Gulf Saturday into Sunday, bringing
it onshore Sunday night into Monday.  The latest GFS veers the low
across Florida late Saturday night into Sunday, and has been the
least consistent, so prefer the ECMWF/Canadian solutions.  While
waiting on the surface/upper low, a weak upper level trof will be
over our region.  With moist unstable air in place, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday into
Sunday, with the best chances during the daytime hours.

The effects of the Gulf low should start to be felt Sunday night.
ECMWF takes the low farther west than the Canadian, and produces
more widespread showers and thunderstorms farther north across our
region. Just how high our pops should be as we get into Monday and
Tuesday remains questionable, but we should continue to see higher
chances during the daytime hours.  Both models keep us dry Monday
night.

It will remain warm and humid through the extended with highs in the
middle to upper 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

The TAFs are VFR due to high pressure at the surface and aloft
through the period. A few SHRA/TSRA will be possible this
afternoon in the Van Buren and Doniphan areas of Missouri, but
this activity will be well west of KCGI. The lone threat to VFR at
the TAF sites will be fog potential, mainly at KCGI late tonight.
However, with strong mixing and dry advection today, confidence
in fog formation is too low to mention at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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