Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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456 FXUS65 KPUB 160450 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1050 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms into this evening, a few may become strong to severe across the Plains. - Locally heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may produce localized flash flooding through tonight. - Continued chances for afternoon showers and weak thunderstorms are expected for the high country through the extended. - Above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather expected for lower elevations for Friday through Sunday. - A pattern change arrives early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Currently...showers and thunderstorms have started to develop across much of southern Colorado early this afternoon. A few have pulsed up briefly, and likely produced small hail and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures are nice out there so far, with mid 60s to mid 70s across much of the Eastern Plains. Low level flow has turned northeasterly behind a cold front that passed across the Plains this morning. Rest of today and tonight...a weak upper low will continue to slowly track east across the Desert Southwest through tonight, while a quick upper shortwave drops across central Colorado. Moisture associated with the upper low to the south has led to PWAT values near 0.75 inches, about 150 percent of normal. Higher dewpoint air behind the cold front that passed through this morning has spread across the Plains, with mid to upper 40 readings. Mesoanalysis indicates SBCAPE values in the 1000-1500 j/kg range across the Plains. This has allowed showers and thunderstorm develop for this afternoon across the region. While shear is marginal at around 35 kts, a couple of storms could become strong to severe with hail near an inch in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding on burn scars and in urban areas. The area across eastern Las Animas and Baca Counties will see the greatest potential for strong to severe storms. Elsewhere, stronger storms may be capable of producing half inch hail and strong wind gusts. Snow levels will remain high, with minor accumulations possible above 11 kft through tonight. Models in good agreement with slow moving storms tracking east this evening and overnight. The strong to severe threat should diminish after sunset, and the loss of daytime instability. Most shower activity across the Plains should come to an end overnight. The exception will be for areas along the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa, where showers and thunderstorms look to continue into Thursday morning. Thursday...the upper low to the south will continue to track east into western Texas by tomorrow afternoon. Wrap around flow will continue to impact areas along the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa for the morning hours. Weak energy in northwesterly flow aloft will spread across Colorado during the late morning to early afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop, initially over the Mountains, and spread east into the adjacent Plains by mid to late afternoon. Drier air behind the departing system should lessen instability, with gusty outflow winds being the main concern. Temperatures on Thursday will remain cool, with 60s to low 70s across much of the region. Mozley && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Thursday Night Through Sunday.. Models bring the low into the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region by Thursday evening, which could keep some showers and weak thunderstorm activity over our southern mountains and far southern plains for Thursday evening as well. As the low continues to push off to our east, showers and storms look to come to an end by around midnight or so at the latest. Overnight low temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning will be seasonably mild. With ridging building in behind the departing low, daytime highs look to climb well into the 80s for most of our plains on Friday afternoon, with many location seeing highs of five to ten degrees above normal for this time of year. Thunderstorm chances decrease for Friday, though a few showers and weak storms will still be possible across the high country, especially for our southern mountains. A trough passes to our north throughout Saturday, and looks to shove a weak cold front southward at some point as well. This front doesn`t appear to be strong enough to have much impact on our expected temperatures. It doesn`t look to bring any significant precip chances with it either, especially for our plains, though showers and thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage over the high country for Saturday. Temperatures still look to rise into the mid 80s for Saturday afternoon across our plains, with mid 70s for mountain valleys. Our flow aloft begins to transition to more southwesterly for Sunday, as another trough begins to push into the northern Rockies and a low begins to move toward southern California. This pattern shift will increase temperatures somewhat across the area, and will also bring in some breezier winds as well. Daytime highs look to climb into the low 90s across our far eastern plains for Sunday, with mid to upper 80s for most of the I-25 corridor, and 70s for mountains valleys. Southwesterly winds gusting to 30mph are expected across lower elevations on Sunday, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain. Monday Onwards.. Models begin to diverge as we head into the beginning of next week, though it does seem likely that warm, dry and windy weather is expected for Monday, before a trough passes sometime on Tuesday. Though there is a lot of disagreement on timing and amplitude of this trough, the general consensus between ensemble members seems to keep the wave open, which wouldn`t bode well for precip chances on the plains. Current thinking is that we`ll see continued chances for showers and storms over the high country during this period, with possible critical meteorological fire weather conditions over portions of our plains for Monday (and possibly Sunday if the system quickens). Though with recent green-up, it is likely that many zones will not see any fire weather highlights with this upcoming system, given that fuels are not conducive for rapid fire spread. Expect daytime highs to remain above normal for Monday, and to cool several degrees behind the trough, which would bring highs down closer to normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1049 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Currently, VFR conditions are occurring at all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB). Lower CIGs are expected to develop later this evening and continue into the early morning hours for KCOS and KPUB, with MVFR criteria likely at KCOS and possible at KPUB and KALS. VFR conditions are expected to prevail thereafter throughout the rest of the forecast period. Winds will be synoptically influenced for the most part at all terminals. There could also be some VCSH and possibly VCTS at KALS from 21Z through 01Z, with a lesser chance at KCOS and KPUB, which is why it has been left out of these TAFs at this time. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...STEWARD