870
FXUS65 KPUB 150511
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1111 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected
through the long term period, with the greatest probabilities  over
the mountains for Tuesday, then all areas for Wednesday and onward.

- Hottest day of the week is Tuesday with high temperatures over the
lower Arkansas River Valley in 100s

- Cold front to cool temperatures briefly for Thursday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Updated to adjust pops on the Plains based on the latest radar
trends and high-res model guidance. An MCV has developed over
Pueblo, with a bowing line tracking eastward across the Plains.
Convection continues to persist as it tracks east, with heavier
cores near Rocky Ford, southward. While we are not anticipating
any severe weather, locally heavy rainfall and hail to half an
inch are possible, along with outflow wind gusts near 45 mph.
This activity will continue eastward towards the Kansas border
through midnight, dissipating after sunset with the loss of
daytime instability.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Upper level high pressure sits to the southwest of Colorado and
short wave trough over the Pacific northwest begins to make its way
to the central portion of the United States. The main impacts for
the short term forecast are showers and thunderstorms primarily over
the mountains with some of the storms pushing over the foothills and
plains only to dissipate quickly as they progress to the east. The
main risks over the mountains will be gusty winds of up to 40 MPH
and a low chance for flash flooding, but the storms would need to
remain stationary for that to happen. Over the eastern plains, some
small thunderstorms look to form along a few instability axes over
Baca County and near Crowley Counties tomorrow from 3pm-7pm. Main
risks with those storms will be gusty outflow winds with gusts up to
40MPH.

Tomorrow is going to be our hottest day in the week with high
temperatures above 100F over the lower Arkansas River Valley and mid
to upper 90s over the rest of the plains. This isn`t quite hot
enough for a Heat Advisory, so no product issuance there. The HRRR
smoke model does put pockets of smoke over the western half of the
CWA, but that is very patchy and not too dense, so no major concerns
for vulnerable populations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Other than a slight delay on an incoming cold front midweek, the
general weather pattern through the extended period has not changed
much. There will be a daily shot of afternoon and evening
convection, with the best chance across the higher terrain for
Tuesday. Frontal passage will temporarily cool at least the eastern
plains midweek, then precipitation chances start to ramp up for the
upcoming weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper low over the Pacific NW on Tue
will weaken and move east across the Rockies overnight into early
Wed morning as an open wave. That will force a cold front south into
CO Wed morning, with the front pushing across the Palmer Divide and
into the southeast plains by midday. Due to this later expected
frontal passage, high temps on Wed are forecast to drop down to
right around normal levels, then eventually cool to below normal for
Thu. The resultant easterly upslope surface flow will aid in
moisture advection, and scattered to likely convection is
anticipated for all areas by Wed late afternoon and carry over
through Thu. Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys both
days, while the plains will warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s for
Wed, then the 80s on Thu.

Friday through Sunday...The upper pattern is still sporting a
monsoon-like look through the upcoming weekend, with an upper high
over the Gulf and an upper low sitting over the CA Baja. Convection
potential remains elevated and widespread, with near normal
temperatures all three days. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1108 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

KALS...generally VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A few
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the San Luis
Valley on Tuesday afternoon in the 23-01z time period. Gusty
outflow winds will be the main concern.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A
cold front will arrive Tuesday afternoon, bringing a northerly
wind shift with gusts near 25 kts possible into the evening.
There is a very low probability of an isolated shower, but
confidence in occurrence is low at this time. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY