Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 132122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
Issued by National Weather Service PHOENIX AZ
222 PM MST Tue Mar 13 2018

SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will provide the area with dry
weather and above normal high temperatures today into Wednesday.
Thereafter, a weak weather system will pass through the region
bringing some light showers mainly from Tucson eastward Wednesday
night. Cooler temperatures will also accompany this system, with a
few lingering showers in the White Mountains Thursday and Friday.
Another system will impact the Desert Southwest this coming


.DISCUSSION...A sufficient amount of upper level moisture continues
to infiltrate Arizona from the west. The good news for our area
is that much of the cloud cover has stayed further west and north
allowing for sufficient daytime heating across southeast Arizona.
Temperatures in the Tucson area are already in the upper 70`s and
we should be able to add a few more degrees over the next few

Tomorrow will also be warm with temperatures topping in the low 80`s
before a shortwave makes way through the region. The trough axis
will pass through later Wednesday leading to some breezy
conditions in the afternoon. Unfortunately, the best dynamics and
moisture will stay well to our north but there is a slight chance
of showers for the highest terrain features. Shower activity
really begins to tapper off early Thursday but the system will
leave behind cooler temperatures nearly 15 degrees cooler than
what we`re seeing today!

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty heading into this
weekend and beyond. Model trends continue to show some semblance
of a shortwave dropping through the region this weekend but the
chance for precipitation continues to dwindle. Nevertheless, the
disturbance should be enough to keep temperatures down to near
normal values. Drier conditions should prevail for the beginning
of next week as modest ridging again takes hold. However, model
uncertainty continues through next week. Fortunately,the pattern
does seem favorable for a few more weather disturbances to cycle
through. Cooler temperatures and possibly wetter conditions may
return towards to middle to end of next week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 14/0Z There are few aviation weather
concerns through tonight. The winds will remain fairly light
outside of an occasional breeze this afternoon. Otherwise, some
high clouds AOA 20k feet will pass overhead. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will persist across the area
through Wednesday morning. A few light showers will be possible
Wednesday night as a weather system moves across the region. While
most of the rain/snow showers will be confined to the highest
terrain, some valley rain is possible. The winds will be fairly
light but a few afternoon gusts will become stronger beginning
Thursday through this weekend.





Aviation/Fire Weather...Deemer

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