Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 142039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
139 PM MST Sat Apr 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry through the remainder of the weekend then a
passing storm system will generate gusty winds Monday afternoon.
Cooler than average temperatures will follow on Tuesday then the
cycle will repeat with warming temperatures followed by another wind
storm Thursday into Friday.


.DISCUSSION...The progressive pattern will continue with an upper
level ridge cresting over the area Sunday morning which will maintain
the clear skies and bring about a roughly 10 degree warmup over
today. Winds will remain relatively light through Sunday.

The next in a series of dry and windy systems will approach the area
Monday with winds picking up through the day to go along with the
very low humidity levels and well above normal temperatures. Couple
of concerns with this feature as related to the ultimate strength of
the winds. If the approaching trough were about 6 hours ahead of what
is currently progged the winds would be a good bit stronger and the
cloud cover will be increasing and if it gets thick enough, early
enough it will trim the winds back a bit during the afternoon. A
couple of variables to watch. That said, we are confident enough that
critical fire weather conditions may around the region that
afternoon that a Fire Weather Watch has been issued.

This storm will drop temperatures back quite a bit Tuesday with
breezy conditions expected east of Tucson resulting in a good chance
of critical fire weather conditions eastern areas during the
afternoon. Then temperatures will moderate back up to "normal" levels
Wednesday and then above on Thursday. Yet another storm system will
pass by to the north later Thursday into Friday for windy conditions
once again. This is a fairly deep system however it does not look to
have enough moisture this far south to help our area out at all.
Critical fire weather conditions are likely as this system passes.
Long range models continue to point toward additional windy systems
through the end of the month. This April is definitely living up to
it`s billing of being the windiest month in SE AZ.


.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.
Clear skies or only a few cirrus clouds through the forecast period.
SFC wind will be nly around 12 kts until 15/02Z, then variable in
direction less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Low daytime humidities and poor nighttime recoveries
will continue for the next week.

Upper level high pressure will keep winds light through this
weekend. A storm system will bring critical fire weather conditions
to southeast Arizona Monday. Southwest winds will not be quite as
stong as they were this past Thursday, but still strong. Critical
fire weather conditions may occur again Tuesday afternoon, especially
near the New Mexico line.

Critical fire weather conditions could occur yet again Thursday and
Friday as another storm system moves north of the area.


Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ150>153.




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