Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221120
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.AVIATION...
Possible thunderstorms to affect the three TAF sites Friday
afternoon. Conditions will be primarily VFR outside of
thunderstorms until late in the TAF period where some low clouds
may be possible. Winds will be gusting 25-30 knots at times, may
higher with thunder. A surface low will be setting up in the
middle of the TX Panhandle causing the winds to shift through the
period ending with a north wind by 12Z Saturday.

Hoffeditz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 423 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms expected to be continuing after sunrise
across northeast half of Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Deep rich moisture has provided ML CAPEs above 1000 J/kg in a
strongly-sheared environment.  Mid-level support for morning
thunderstorms will also come from a sharp 700 mb shortwave trof
moving in from the west.  This afternoon, dryline expected to mix
into western sections as additional dynamics arrive.  Shear above
50 kt is expected late this afternoon and this evening, with
severe thunderstorms likely to occur.  Abundance of moisture will
also set the stage for localized heavy rains.

Cold front expected to move through Oklahoma Panhandle and
northwest Texas Panhandle by midnight, and to then clear all but
southeast corner of Texas Panhandle by 7 AM Saturday.  Chances
for thunderstorms tonight will be highest in eastern sections,
where deeper moisture will reside for a longer duration.

Quiet weather is expected Saturday through Sunday morning, as
post-frontal airmass will be much less unstable and no low-level
convergence zone will be in place.  By Sunday afternoon, eastern
sections expected to moisten and become unstable, with dryline
advancing eastward again.  Shortwave trof will help bring a cold
front through most of the area Sunday night.  Have retained
thunderstorm pops Sunday afternoon through Monday night across
mainly north and northeast sections.  Weaker flow aloft begins
Tuesday with later periods dominated by strengthening mid-level
ridge.  No rain expected Tuesday through Thursday.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

36/3



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