Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
613 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all three TAF sites,
however the Guymon TAF site could see MVFR conditions in showers
and thunderstorms between about 03Z and 06Z Saturday. Low level
wind shear is expected at all three TAF sites after 08Z and 10Z



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tonight

A weak shortwave trough tracking east across the southern Rockies
this morning will continue to bring isolated to widely scattered
showers mainly across the central and eastern portions of the
Texas Panhandle this morning until around 12Z to 15Z today or so.
These showers should either dissipate or move out of the forecast
area by mid to late morning. Subsidence will briefly prevail this
afternoon before another stronger shortwave trough approaches the
Panhandles from the central and southern Rockies. Additional
convection will spread south and east across the northern and
western Panhandles by late today or early this evening. The
convection is then expected to continue tracking east and south
across the remainder of the forecast area through about 06Z to 09Z
Saturday or so before exiting the Panhandles by 12Z Saturday.


LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday

A cold front will arrive early Saturday, with high pressure
building into eastern parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
in its wake.  Front expected to be positioned late in the day
across eastern New Mexico and the southwest Texas Panhandle.
Convergence and residual moisture could support thunderstorm
development across western sections Saturday afternoon, with some
storms continuing into the evening across northern sections as a
shortwave trof passes.

Dryline sets up late Sunday across eastern sections, and is then
overtaken by a cold front moving into northern sections during the
evening.  Initial thought is that atmosphere will remained
capped, but the passage of a shortwave trof may enhance
thunderstorm development in northeast sections Sunday evening.

Cold front pushes through all of forecast area by Monday
afternoon.  Moist upslope flow Monday night and Tuesday may offer
best potential for rain and thunderstorms across the Panhandles.

Mid-level closed low still expected to come ashore near southern
California on Monday.  Models and ensembles disagree on timing of
its movement toward forecast area, but are trending more toward
the idea of the low dampening into an open wave before arriving.
Cooler conditions on Monday and Tuesday expected to limit
instability and strong thunderstorm development.  Warmer weather
on Wednesday may lead to better storm organization along dryline.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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