Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 250551

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1251 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020




Broke out once again a late afternoon zone grouping to
emphasize continued development of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms as remaining afternoon hours progress.
Otherwise, a blended model consensus solution continues to be
used through next Sunday. Models continue to be in general
good agreement with big picture details, although in some
instances quandaries concerning microscale details still persist.
Expect this late afternoon diurnal driven convection to diminish
as early evening hours tonight progress.

Blended model consensus solution remains quite consistent since
yesterday morning`s model runs. Still looks like Memorial Day
through at least end of work week a weather pattern will develop
supporting at least mid afternoon to early evening shower and
thunderstorm development each day. Aloft, this weather pattern
consist of an upper level blocking ridge remaining quasi
stationary and enhanced across locations approaching U.S. eastern
seaboard while a cut off upper level low drops into southern
plains and remains quasi stationary across this region through
at least the Thursday afternoon hours. This weather pattern will
support a more robust moisture advection fetch established from
northern Gulf of Mexico Region into mid state region during this
time. Just like yesterday at this time, multiple model sounding
instability indicies support diurnal driven convective
development, including high afternoon CAPE values.

A shallow surface boundary may still try to push southward
through mid state region as next Saturday progresses. This due to
fairly strong surface/lower level atmospheric high pressure push
into/across Ohio Valley Region, and eventually into mid state
region. In upper levels though, upper level troughing may slightly
deepen from northeast to southwest across mid state region as
synoptic upper level trough becomes more enhanced across eastern
Canada down through the Appalachians. It is expected that passing
front will be rather shallow in nature as it pushes through mid
state region. It still could potentially be until at least Monday
for decent drying to occur across our area. Thus expect potential
of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist
across mid state region through upcoming weekend also.

As for temperatures, they will remain several degrees above
seasonal normal values through first part of next weekend.
Memorial Day will be warmest day of period, with highs mid to
upper 80s, lower 80s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau
Region. So agree with morning discussion reasoning that heat
and humidity will definitely be turned up for next several
days across mid state region.



VFR and light southerly winds continue tonight. SHRA/TSRA are in
the forecast again after 18z-20z Monday, and any that impact the
terminals could briefly reduce VIS. Convection will end as the sun
sets, around 00-01z Tue.





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