Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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863
FXUS64 KOHX 151133
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
633 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Things are a changin` across the mid-state this morning. A cloud
deck is building in from the south and it`s noticeably warmer this
morning, too. The change is mainly due to air flowing northward over
a warm front that is draped east to west over the central Gulf
States. This warm front will be the instigator in showers and
thunderstorms developing to our south, and as I`ve talked about the
last few mornings, it could also bring our southern counties some
very light rain this afternoon. Models really have backed off on
this potential, but I still believe that folks in our southern tier
of counties could see a brief shower. Nothing to write home about,
but possible.

Of greater note is the cold front that will swing through Middle TN
this evening, bringing with it showers and a few thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings remain unimpressive, with meager instability (due
to the rains south of us during the day), but mid-level lapse rates
along and north of I-40 around 6.5 deg and 40-45 kts of bulk shear
could be just enough for the northern half of the mid-state to see
scattered thunderstorms. There`s not enough here for anything strong
or severe, but if you have outdoor plans this evening, it`ll be
worth keeping an eye out for, especially north of I-40 and west of
I-65.

The front clears the area tonight, with a few post frontal showers
on the Plateau through mid-morning tomorrow, but what will be more
noticeable is the shot of cooler air that will be behind the front,
with breezy north winds. Gusts of 20-25 will be possible through the
daylight hours tomorrow.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday, while starting off cool (some patchy
frost is possible in low-lying areas Thursday morning), will warm up
gradually each day. We should be back into the mid-70s by Saturday.
However, with any warmup this time of the year, comes the potential
for more rain -- and this isn`t any different. Models are still out
to lunch regarding any agreement on the pattern Sunday, Monday and
Tuesday, but it does look clear that some showers will be around
Sunday and another cold front will sweep through the mid-state
Monday or Tuesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...A broad area of moisture continues to make its
way slowly northward into Middle Tennessee from the south.
Conditions will remain VFR today as mid-level ceilings develop and
winds increase from the south. A cold front approaching from the
NW will help focus some of this moisture by this evening, with
showers and low ceilings developing. There may be a few storms in
the area in addition to the showers tonight, but the probability
of TS is low so we`ll stick with showers only in the TAF`s.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........08



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