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000
FXUS63 KICT 121747
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Warm, dry and windy will the prefect description for today. Southerly
return flow will dominate much of the short term. Nearly all
models are showing a wide open Gulf of Mexico with a strong low
level jet over the Southern Plains. This will permit strong WAA
and moisture transport to pour into the region. The WAA will
provide a very warm day today with temperatures expected to be
well above normal. There may be a record high or two that could
fall today but most records are well into the low to mid 90s. Feel
these temperatures will be further to the west. This strong low
level jet combined with a high mixing height will allow the winds
to be rather strong again today. Winds are expected to reach
advisory criteria once again. Unlike yesterday, the winds are not
expected to die down at sunset due to this persistent low level
jet parked over SE Kansas. This configuration will keep the winds
high into the evening hours. The higher winds could continue
through the night as well.

Tonight into Friday, the WAA and strong moisture transport will
continue and will significantly increase the moisture over much of
South Central and Southeast Kansas.  Raised temperatures tonight and
Friday to compensate as the front may be a little slower to come through.
Additionally, expect a well defined dry line and attendant dry
tongue as the frontal system passes. This will restrict the bulk
of the moisture to the east. Generally along and east of the
turnpike Friday afternoon. This is also where the best instability
appears to be, along with some good shear and forcing. This is
where some scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during
the afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be strong
or severe with wind being the primary threat. However, can`t rule
out severe hail either as CAPE values are high enough to support
severe hail in isolated storms.

By Friday night, the frontal system will have moved through most of
the CWA and the winds will kick around to the north and west.
Temperatures will take a nose dive during the night Friday and
into Saturday. By Saturday morning, this impressive and powerful
frontal system will slow down some as the main trough takes on a
strong negative tilt, allowing the CAA to linger and pour cold
Canadian air into the region. Wrap around moisture on the back
side of the system will bring the chances for some mixed wintry
precipitation to accompany the high winds that will doggedly
persist Saturday. Saturday afternoon temperatures are likely to be
20 degrees below normal for this time of year. This cold could
smash a number of record cold max temperatures for Saturday as a
result. Saturday night the CAA will continue and will keep
temperatures well below normal.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

The extended range starts out very cold Sunday morning with
temperatures well below normal.  Some of extended range models
have Sunday morning temperatures several degrees below the current
records. However, kept Sunday morning mins a little warmer to
just above their current records as there is little agreement on
the amount of cold air moving into the region. Monday will mark
the beginning of a warming trend as winds will turn back around to
the south. The warm up will be welcome but will not be as
pronounced as what we have experienced this past week.
Temperatures will rise above normal for a few days before being
knocked back down to normal on Wednesday with the next system.
This next weather system appears to want to come through dry as
the Gulf of Mexico does not appear to open up in time to allow for
any significant return flow ahead of it.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

MVFR ceilings likely and isolated thunderstorm possible in the
vicinity of kcnu around daybreak. MVFR ceilings are possible at
KRSL/KGBD behind the cold front tomorrow morning. Strong winds
will persist tonight as surface pressure gradient increases ahead
of developing low. Low level moisture will stream low clouds into
southeast KS. KICT will be close to western edge of these clouds.
Front will move through KRSL/KGBD after daybreak with MVFR
ceilings anticipated behind the front. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Dry and windy conditions will continue to make fire weather a
problem today and tomorrow.  Winds today will again be in the 25 to
35 mph range with some higher gusts around the region.  A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for today along with a Wind Advisory.
These conditions will make it difficult to control any fires that do
develop today. Tomorrow does not look much better as the continued
dry and windy conditions will make for a another problematic day
over much of South Central and parts of Southeast Kansas. Saturday,
fire weather finally begins to calm down some as the colder
weather and some moisture will help keep fire danger down.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  67  78  33 /   0   0  20  20
Hutchinson      87  64  76  32 /   0   0  20  20
Newton          85  67  78  32 /   0   0  20  20
ElDorado        83  67  78  34 /   0  10  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   84  68  79  35 /   0  10  20  10
Russell         90  56  65  27 /   0   0  40  50
Great Bend      90  56  67  28 /   0   0  40  40
Salina          88  65  76  32 /   0  10  30  40
McPherson       86  65  77  31 /   0   0  20  30
Coffeyville     78  66  76  39 /   0  20  40  20
Chanute         77  66  76  38 /   0  20  40  20
Iola            77  66  75  38 /   0  20  40  30
Parsons-KPPF    77  66  76  39 /   0  20  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for KSZ052-053-068>072-083-
092>096-098>100.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for KSZ051>053-067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...ELM