252
FXUS63 KICT 061751
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1251 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather pattern today through next weekend, with
  multiple chances for thunderstorms, especially from the late
  afternoon through early morning hours.

- Mostly seasonable temperatures expected the next 7 days,
  although Wednesday-Friday look to be above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

PRECIPITATION:

TODAY-TONIGHT...Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing across central Kansas early this morning,
in vicinity of a slow-moving weak frontal zone, and also likely
being aided by a subtle mid-level trough approaching from the
northwest. Thinking this activity will gradually dissipate through
the early morning hours, as the low-level jet weakens and veers.

For this afternoon and evening, this weak frontal zone is expected
to stall over southern Kansas, and will be the focus for scattered
thunderstorm development, mainly along/south of the Highway 50
corridor. Strong instability and decent DCAPE values amidst
relatively weak deep layer shear should support mostly a strong to
severe downburst wind threat along with locally heavy rainfall,
although degree of instability with ~20 kts of deep layer shear may
be enough for an isolated hail threat as well. This activity should
tend to lose steam as the evening progresses due to a weak low-level
jet. However, further west (generally Barton-Russell counties on
west), a thunderstorm complex is expected to roll southeast off the
High Plains by late evening, which may pose an isolated damaging
wind threat for Barton-Russell counties. Better chances will be over
western Kansas.

Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, an active thunderstorm
pattern is expected to persist off-and-on from Monday evening-night
through next weekend, as the upper ridge remains primarily southwest
of the region. This will keep Kansas within a favorable storm track
consisting of subtle mid-upper perturbations approaching from the
west-northwest. This should support continued periodic shower/storm
chances, especially from the late afternoon through early morning
hours nearly each day. However, storm chances look much lower
Wednesday and Thursday with Kansas in between storm systems.

While widespread organized severe weather appears unlikely, modest
flow aloft should support the deep layer shear needed for at least
an isolated strong to severe storm threat with each episode. The
hail threat should be mostly marginal, with strong to severe wind
gusts and locally heavy rainfall along with isolated flooding
concerns the main hazards.

TEMPERATURES:

With the upper ridge remaining southwest of the region, along with
periodic shower/storm chances, mostly seasonable temperatures are
expected for at least the next 7 days across the region. Overnight
lows ranging from the upper 60s-low 70s, and daytime highs ranging
from the upper 80s to the mid 90s are probable, with a low chance
for intense above average summer heat. The exception will be
Wednesday through Friday, as shortwave upper ridging and building
thickness ahead of an approaching cold front should support mid-
upper 90s for daytime highs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
across eastern Kansas and this activity is expected to expand
across south central Kansas this afternoon. CNU and ICT are the
two most likely locations to see thunderstorm impacts this
afternoon and early evening hence tempo groups have been
introduced at both sites. Any thunderstorm that develops will
have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds up to 60
mph, small hail, and frequent lightning. These thunderstorms
should come to an end shortly after sunset. A second round of
thunderstorms is expected to move out of northwest Kansas this
evening and overnight but will be decaying as it moves into
central Kansas. Exactly when these storms dissipate remains
uncertain so PROB30 groups remain at RSL and GBD. Outside of
thunderstorms, conditions will be VFR with relatively light
winds however outflow boundaries may lead to breezier conditions
at times.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...WI