Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 122034
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
334 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Strong southerly flow has been present over mid-America today due to
a strong low-level jet and decent mixing. These strong winds will
continue late this afternoon and into this evening. Warm air
advection from the south resulted in highs today well above normal,
reaching into the 80s across a large portion of the area. Strong
winds and fire weather will continue to be the main concerns heading
into this evening. See the fire weather discussion below and the
latest wind advisory for further details. Overnight lows are
expected to remain well above normal tonight and into early Friday
as strong southerly flow continues.

The forecast for the next couple of days will be dominated by a deep
mid/upper trough currently situated across the western CONUS that is
expected to intensify as it makes its way eastward Friday. At the
surface, a very strong cold front is forecast to begin pushing
across the Central Plains early Friday. As the system begins
knocking on our door, expect a well defined dryline with a pocket of
drier air that should limit the bulk of the moisture transport to
eastern portions of the CWA and points further east into Missouri
and Arkansas. However, there is potential for things to begin
getting a bit interesting Friday morning. Model soundings suggest
that the cap may start becoming much weaker sometime after 12Z
Friday morning in south central and especially southeast Kansas.
With sufficient forcing, moderate lapse rates and shear, and at
least a couple of models suggesting MUCAPE and MLCAPE well above
1000J/kg as convective inhibition gives way, would not be
surprised to see a few isolated strong to severe storms develop
Friday morning with strong winds and severe hail as the main
potential threats. The threat of isolated strong to possibly
severe storms will continue for southeast Kansas through the
afternoon before the system finally makes its way out of the state
during the evening. This thinking also aligns quite nicely with
the current SPC convective outlook, which places southeast Kansas
counties in the marginal and slight categories.

Following the frontal passage, a tight pressure gradient will set up
over Kansas as the surface low slowly crosses northern Missouri and
southern Iowa. This will flip winds around to the north as speeds
really pick up steam. An intense surge of cold air advection will be
ushered into the region, cooling temperatures down significantly
this weekend. Expect that highs will be at least 20-25 degrees below
normal for this time of year on Saturday. This strong return flow
will also bring in some wrap-around moisture into central Kansas.
This will create chances for some light rain/wintry mix/light
snow chances for central Kansas and possibly as far south as south
central Kansas into the Wichita metro and along the Flint Hills.
This moisture looks to linger through the day before moving out
Saturday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Northerly flow will stick around on Sunday and although
temperatures will be warmer than Saturday, highs should still be
well below average.

As an upper ridge and surface high pressure make their way into
the region on Monday morning, winds will calm quite a bit as they
shift back to the south. This will allow temperatures to recover
to start the work week next week and initiate a gradual warming
trend bringing highs back into the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday.

The next system is forecast to move through mid-America Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, but moisture looks limited and the
area should remain dry. Temperatures are expected to cool back
down to near normal Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

MVFR ceilings likely and isolated thunderstorm possible in the
vicinity of kcnu around daybreak. MVFR ceilings are possible at
KRSL/KGBD behind the cold front tomorrow morning. Strong winds
will persist tonight as surface pressure gradient increases ahead
of developing low. Low level moisture will stream low clouds into
southeast KS. KICT will be close to western edge of these clouds.
Front will move through KRSL/KGBD after daybreak with MVFR
ceilings anticipated behind the front. -Howerton


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Very high to extreme grassland fire danger is possible across the
area on Friday due to gusty north winds and relative humidities
dropping down to near 20%. The greatest fire danger looks to be
in south central and southeast Kansas, where a Red Flag Warning
has been issued. See the latest RFW for details.

Very high fire danger is also possible on Saturday as winds will
continue to be strong across much of the area. However, with
temperatures forecast to be well below normal, not expecting any
fire weather headlines at this time. However, caution should still
be heeded with regards to fires on Saturday since strong winds
could still make any fires that develop difficult to control.

Looking ahead, Tuesday looks to be another fire weather concern
with portions of central and south central Kansas possibly
reaching the extreme grassland fire danger category. Will continue
to monitor as the forecast gets fine-tuned and be on the lookout
for potential fire weather headlines next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  78  33  43 /   0  20  20  20
Hutchinson      63  73  31  41 /   0  20  30  30
Newton          66  77  31  40 /   0  20  20  30
ElDorado        66  78  33  42 /  10  20  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   66  79  34  45 /  10  20  10  10
Russell         54  63  27  37 /   0  40  60  40
Great Bend      55  64  28  39 /   0  40  40  30
Salina          64  73  32  39 /  10  30  50  50
McPherson       63  73  31  40 /   0  20  40  30
Coffeyville     66  78  39  50 /  20  40  20  10
Chanute         65  77  37  47 /  20  40  20  20
Iola            65  77  38  46 /  20  40  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    66  78  38  48 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for KSZ052-053-068>072-083-
092>096-098>100.

Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM CDT Friday for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ051>053-
067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099.

Wind Advisory from noon Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ052-
053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

Wind Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-
033-047>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...TAV



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