


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
739 FXUS63 KICT 062327 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 627 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms late this afternoon into early evening across mainly southern KS with additional storms coming out of northwest KS tonight. - Another round of storms coming off of the High Plains for Mon night into Tuesday morning. - Seasonal temperatures continue with above normal highs expected for Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Currently have some shortwave energy moving into the Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, another upper impulse is sliding across the Northern Plains. Weak cold front extends from Central MO to near KICT and into southwest KS. Storms are expected to continue to develop along the front this afternoon and sag south into the early evening, mainly affecting southern and southeast KS. Damaging downburst winds, small hail and pockets of heavy rain will continue to be the main threats. Additional convection is expected to develop over southwest Nebraska/NW KS early this evening and slide east overnight. Not sure how far east storms will make it as there is decent model consensus that they start to wane as they approach the western flank of our forecast area. So for now will run with the highest pops west of I-135 tonight. Confidence is low with regards to convection during the day Mon. Moisture isn`t going anywhere, so we will remain very unstable with minimal capping. Feel the best chance for daytime storms would be for them do develop along some remnant outflow or just east of a remnant MCV from storms tonight. With low confidence, will not hit pops too hard. Better storm chances will arrive Mon night as a weak upper impulse lifts out of Central Great Basin, across the Central Rockies and out across the Central Plains by late Mon afternoon. Storms should first develop over central/southern Nebraska early Mon evening, and race south and southeast overnight, affecting most of our area after 06z Tue. Damaging downburst winds and hail up to nickel size look to be the main threats with this complex of storms Mon night. We may see a few storms linger Tuesday morning, especially across eastern KS. However after Tue, we should see an overall decrease in storm chances through Thu, as upper ridging builds to our southwest. Storm chances will then ramp back-up starting Thu night into Fri as a series of impulses track across the Central Plains, with a more potent shortwave forecast to slide across the Northern Plains Fri, and should push a front down into our area. Prior to Thursday, temps look fairly seasonal for this time of year, with a slight bump in highs for Thu with mid and upper 90s a good bet. There is a good chance we will see cooler highs for Fri and especially Sat as the front pushes down into our area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Showers and thunderstorms that developed within the diffuse boundary across southern Kansas will drift south early this evening clearing KICT and KCNU by around 02Z or sooner. Other storms drifting out of northern Kansas could impact parts of central Kansas before diminishing but confidence in how long this activity persists remains fairly low. More storms may impact the area tomorrow night with VFR and light southeast winds prevailing over the area on Monday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...MWM