054
FXUS63 KSGF 140528
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1228 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will remain possible through the early morning
  hours today. Visibilities could drop below one mile at times
  and will likely vary with time and over short distances.

- Isolated showers and storms early this morning but most
  locations should remain dry. Scattered shower and storm
  chances will then occur this afternoon and evening. Dry
  conditions expected Tuesday night and Wednesday.

- Additional precipitation possible late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A low pressure system will continue to move through the region
today before moving out on Tuesday. In the warm sector ahead of
the low this afternoon/evening, isolated to scattered showers
and storms are expected, as we could see a few strong to severe
thunderstorms given MUCAPE values up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg and
0-6km shear of up to 30-35 kts. Overall, expect organization to
be limited, which should limit severe threats to hail up to 1
inch in diameter and gusts less than 60 mph in the very
strongest storms.

Very localized flooding is also possible through this evening,
mainly due to increased soil moisture from recent rainfall
events. Could see localized additional rainfall amounts up to
1-2 inches, but most locations will see less than that.

Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected on Tuesday, ending from west to east in the
afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Tuesday night and Wednesday will be dry for the most part, then
models show additional rounds of upper level energy bringing
rain chances Wednesday night into Sunday. There is a high
degrees of variability in guidance, which lowers confidence,
but the best chances for rain are Wednesday night into Thursday
at 50-70%.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An area of surface low pressure is moving east across the area
early this morning. A few isolated showers and storms will be
possible through the morning hours, but most locations should
remain dry. As the low starts to move east scattered showers and
storms will develop and wrap around the low across portions of
the area. At this time due to coverage confidence was too low
to include any mention of convection in the TAFs.

Patchy fog has also developed across portions of the area early
this morning and will remain possible the rest of the early
morning hours. Visibilities will likely vary with time and
location and could drop below one mile at times. Any fog that
develops should dissipate by the mid morning hours. Some MVFR
ceilings could linger into the late morning hours but VFR
conditions should remain by the afternoon hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Wise