Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 071119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

Surface high pressure was centered over southwest Missouri early
this morning with a light wind across the area and clear sky.
Temperatures were chilly in the lower to middle 40s, with likely
some 30s in area valleys.

High amplitude upper ridge axis was located over the Rockies
early this morning with strong northwest flow continuing aloft
over the central U.S. and our forecast area.

Some showers/thunderstorms may develop this morning to the west on
the western side of the ridge and then shift east across western
portions of the area by mid to late morning. The additional cloud
cover and precipitation chances will keep temperatures in the west
cooler than the east today with highs from the mid 60s to low 70s.

For tonight, the surface ridge axis will have shifted southeast of
the area. A low level jet is expected to develop and increase low
level moisture over the area while some shortwave energy will
undercut the upper ridge to the west with some late night
convection expected to push into the area. This activity is
expected to remain below severe limits. Lows tonight should be in
the mdi 50s west to upper 40s in parts of the east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

On Saturday, the upper ridge axis will shift east into the area,
with an upper system beginning to drop southeast into the central
Rockies and shortwave energy out ahead of the main shortwave
begins to push into the high plains. A strong surface low will
begin to take shape over the high plains, with good instability
developing out ahead of the low in the central plains. There are
still some decent differences in the deterministic models with
respect to the low placement and how far north the warm front sets
up on Saturday, which will have implications on how much
convection develops over the area Saturday night. The trend has
been shifting the heaviest qpf northward, with the ECMWF still the
furthest south. If the heaviest rain axis does set up further
north, then the excessive rain risk will mostly be north of our
area, but could extend into our northern counties, AND there could
be a severe risk on Sunday as the cold front moves through with
better instability. If the warm front is further south, the
heavier rain axis will cover more of our forecast area along with
the excessive rainfall risk and a lesser chance of severe storms
on Sunday when the front moves through. As a result of the model
differences with the frontal and low pressure track, there is also
a larger spread for temperatures over the weekend.

The surface cold front should move through the area during the day
on Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected for the start of next
work week and will remain unsettled. The next widespread chance of
precipitation looks to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday as
another upper shortwave moves into the area. Highs Mon-Wed look to
be in the 60s with lows in the 40s. A warming trend will begin
during the latter half of the work week as we get rising heights
aloft with the approach of an upper ridge. Highs should return to
the 70s by Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

For the 12z TAFS, Scattered convection developing over
central/eastern KS early this morning and may shift into western
MO towards the JLN terminal late in the morning. Will carry VCSH
wording for the JLN TAF. Mainly expecting mid level cloud cover in
the VFR range today/tonight. Additional convection will be
possible late tonight as the low level jet sets up. Main focus for
convection will be east of the forecast terminals and should
remain VFR through the period.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.