Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1122 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

...Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery revealed a strong
shortwave trough pushing through California. Mid level riding
existed across the central US with a deep trough across the
eastern US. At the surface, high pressure was located over the
Great Lakes with low pressure developing across the Rockies. Winds
across our area have generally turned around to the east-
southeast with local SGF terrain already causing gusts up to 25kts
at SGF. Temperatures ranged from the teens in the eastern Ozarks
to the lower twenties in the Joplin/Springfield area. Some mid and
high level clouds were streaming through the area, with the most
dense cloud cover across central Missouri.

As we head through the day, the surface pressure gradient will
become even stronger as low pressure moves into Kansas. Winds will
turn more southeasterly today and become quite gusty with
sustained winds of 25-30mph and gusts up to 45 mph. The higher
winds may actually occur in two separate times, during the
afternoon hours with any mixing from above, and then again during
the late evening and early overnight as what looks like a very
strong 75kt 850mb low level jet cranks up in eastern KS and nudges
into western MO. Higher elevations across the Ozarks may see some
higher gusts overnight. Went ahead and issued a Wind Advisory for
the western half or so of the area from noon today until midnight.

Temperatures today and tonight will vary about 10-15deg from the
southwest to northeast. Temps tonight will likely drop some after
sunset then steady off or perhaps rise some overnight given the
strong winds and increasing cloud cover. While some patchy
drizzle may occur prior to sunrise Tuesday across far sw Missouri
or se Kansas, most locations will remain dry until later Tuesday
morning. The one place to watch will be the far eastern Ozarks of
Dent/Shannon/Oregon counties, temps will be slower to move there
and if drizzle does develop prior to temps warming above freezing
then there could be some brief freezing drizzle however chances
look very low at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 227 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

Forecast soundings for Tuesday morning generally indicate quite a
bit of mid level dry air with most of the moisture below 850mb.
Therefore drizzle would be favored during the morning before
additional saturation takes place for rain during the afternoon. A
cold front will move through during the late afternoon and
evening hours from west to east. This system is advecting in
colder temps and there could be a brief light wintry mix as the
precip ends Tuesday evening. The NAM is the most bullish with the
post frontal precip. There will be a decent dry slot so not sure
really how much qpf post frontal we will get. Will continue to
monitor this. Overall precip amounts dont look too impressive,
generally ranging from 0.20 inch in the western half of the area to
0.50in in south central missouri.

Wednesday looks cold but dry with 850mb cold air advection taking
place. A strong cold front with arctic air quickly dives south
from the Dakotas Thursday and will be on our door step by late
Thursday. If enough lift is present there could be some flurries
or light snow Thursday night. Temperatures Thursday night/Friday
morning will drop into the single digits to low teens, with wind
chill values pushing below zero once again.

Models continue to keep the area in north to northwest flow with
continual bouts of cold air and weak shortwaves moving through for
the weekend and even beyond. There is currently 4-12 inches of
snow depth across the northern US therefore only slight moderation
in temps would occur with arctic air that moves south towards our
area. Cant rule out some flurries or light snow at times but
models seem to waffle on timing of individual shortwaves.
Temperatures and precipitation below normal are typically favored
in these northwest flow patterns.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

A tight pressure gradient over the region is resulting in strong
southeast winds for the TAF sites and much of southern Missouri.
This gradient will remain in tact all the way through this
evening, being enhanced by a 55+ knot low level jet nosing into
the area this evening. Look for gusts to near 40 knots at times
through 06Z tonight and 30 knots after midnight along with low
level wind shear conditions developing this evening.

VFR flight conditions will persist through at least 06Z tonight, but
cloud bases will then steadily lower after 06Z into the MVFR
category ahead of an approaching storm system. Cannot rule out some
IFR ceilings towards the end of the TAF period. Some light rain or drizzle
will also be possible late tonight into Tuesday morning.


MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ066>068-077>081-

KS...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.