Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 020718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
218 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures will continue across the region
through the weekend and into early next week.

2. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
occur on a daily basis through this weekend.

3. A cooler and drier airmass may move into the region during the
middle of next week.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

The early morning hours so far have yielded quiet conditions, with
light southeast winds, scattered mid to high level clouds, and
temperatures in the 60s.

The summertime pattern will once again continue today, with an
upper level high bringing warm afternoon temperatures in the
upper 80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected later
this afternoon as daytime heating leads to a destabilized
atmosphere. Coverage looks a little better than what we`ve
experienced in the previous days, however still looking at chances
remaining in the 30-40% range, mainly over the eastern Ozarks and
into Central Missouri. Elsewhere, pops are around 20%.

Overnight lows will follow the trend of previous nights, with
temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

The upper level high is progged to remain over the central CONUS
through the beginning of next week, leading to continuous above
normal temperatures through the weekend. Can expect daily highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s through Tuesday.

Shortwaves ejecting eastward from an upper level trough over the
High Plains will lead to additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday, with better chances (30-60%) and
coverage mainly west of Hwy 65. No severe weather or widespread
flooding is expected, however cannot rule out a strong storm or
two bringing localized heavy rainfall.

By midweek next week, ensembles are suggesting a backdoor cold
front pushing through from the Great Lakes region. This would
bring drier weather, and cooler temperatures closer to normal,
with highs in the lower 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the forecast
period. There is a chance for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, however
decided against mentioning in the TAFs due to the low spatial
confidence. Otherwise, southeast winds should generally remain
between 5-8 knots before taking a more east-southeast direction
Friday evening.




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