Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1150 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Some lucky folks are seeing some much needed rainfall with
scattered storms this afternoon across southern Missouri. A weak
disturbance is moving southeastward across the area and
interacting with a weak frontal boundary. Convection has mainly
developed along and south of Highway 60 this afternoon and will
continue into the early evening hours before moving on and
dissipating. Most of tonight will be quiet but Tuesday afternoon
could be like today. Another weak disturbance will be moving
southeastward out of eastern Kansas Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible across
southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri on Tuesday. While
widespread severe weather is not expected, isolated damaging wind
gusts and small hail could be possible with the strongest storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

The upper level ridge will be placed over the Four Corners Region
of the western U.S. and the Ozarks Region will be in a northwest
flow mid week. A stronger shortwave will move through the Midwest
Region by midweek. This feature will slow down and carve out a
trough across the Great Lakes Region by the end of the week. We
will have a cool front that will pass through by late week. Model
guidance may be a tad bit too warm which still indicates lower 90s
for highs. We may have to watch trends and take off a few degrees
by the end of the week if this pattern set ups right. There could
be some storm chances late week as well on Thursday and Friday.

By the weekend, a large upper level trough is across the eastern
half of the U.S. and we are in a northerly flow this weekend with
slightly cooler and drier weather from high pressure. Rain chances
go away for a little while this weekend.

On a side note, this is my last forecast discussion and
forecasting day here at NWS Springfield. I have been a forecaster
here for 8 years in the Missouri Ozarks and I want to say thank
you to everyone out there who have read my discussion over the
years. I also want to say thank you to my coworkers who have been
great and they will continue to bring the best forecasts and
services possible to everyone across our local area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Light fog will be possible overnight and early Tuesday morning
across southern Missouri as winds will be light and variable.

Scattered thunderstorms are then expected Tuesday afternoon and
early Tuesday evening. Localized MVFR and IFR conditions can be
expected around storms along with gusty and erratic winds.

There will then be a limited risk for showers and thunderstorms
later Tuesday evening, however confidence is too low at this point
to include this risk in the TAFs.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.