Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 232352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
652 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A warm front is currently position near the Highway 54 corridor
and down into the eastern Ozarks. Temperatures were in the lower
50s north of the warm front and the lower 70s across far southeast
Kansas and southwest Missouri. Breezy southerly winds will keep
temperatures up tonight in the upper 50s to around 60 south of the
frontal boundary. An upper level storm system will move across
the region tonight. Models show scattered showers and isolated
storms will develop later this evening and overnight ahead of an
advancing cold front. No severe weather is expected due to lack of
instability. Overall rainfall amounts will be light and not
everyone will see rainfall tonight. Winds will shift westerly then
northwesterly behind the front Saturday morning. Saturday will be
cooler and breezy with clouds decreasing from west to east during
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Canadian high pressure will build in for Saturday night with most
temperatures falling into the lower and middle 30s. Sunday will be
mostly dry before our next disturbance starts moving in with
showers. The overall weather pattern setup will be a deep
southwest flow in the middle and upper atmosphere. An upper level
trough will move across the western U.S. early next week. Deep
Gulf moisture along with moisture from the Pacific will continue
to increase over the region early next week. Forecast precipitable
water values are around 1.5 inches. That is at the top of the
climatology charts on PW values.

We will see a series of disturbances ride along the southwest
flow starting Sunday evening through middle of next week. We will
likely see round after round of rainfall, some of that will be
moderate to heavy rainfall. The time period of heaviest rainfall
may occur Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. There are some
differences in timing with the models but all share the same
trend. Models show a pseudo cut off upper level low energy
hanging back towards the southwestern U.S. towards the middle of
next week. This will eventually open up and swing through the
region with additional chances of rainfall through the end of next
week. Widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts
up to 5 inches look increasingly possible for early next week. We
will have to keep an eye on trends and potential flooding


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong sfc low over western KS will move
through the area reaching far western KY by the end of the taf
period. The sfc low will weaken with time, especially on Sat. Sfc
high pressure will build in from the north after the low passes
off to the east. Expect vfr ceilings to lower into the mvfr cat as
south winds continue to move low level moisture into the area.
Ceilings are expected to improve late in the taf period as gusty
south winds veer to west and northwest. Showers and tstms will be
more common north of the taf sites, but will monitor trends.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.