703
FXUS63 KSGF 261830
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
130 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
  weekend (generally 15-40% chance) mainly in the afternoon
  hours. Highest and most widespread chances (40-60%) occurs
  Saturday. There will be extended dry periods and not all
  locations will be affected each day.

- A few afternoon storms Today and Saturday could produce
  lightning, brief heavy rainfall and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

- There is a 60-80% chance for a return to above normal
  temperatures next week, lasting into early August. Heat index
  values will likely climb above 100 degrees next week. Rain
  chances remain below 30 percent next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a rather complex pattern with
upper level energy organizing just south of the area across
Arkansas with several small pieces of energy rotating around it.
This upper energy was caught in between a ridge out west and
another ridge across the southeast US. A combination of
shortwave energy, a weak front nearby and low level moisture has
allowed for a few showers and storms to develop east of
Springfield. 12Z KSGF sounding still showed significant dry air
above 600mb therefore storms have struggled to get tall enough
to produce any downbursts or significant amounts of lightning
however a few lightning strikes have been observed in Shannon
and Oregon Counties where higher moisture resides.

This Afternoon through Tonight: With additional heating and
incoming moisture, we should see a few more showers and storms
develop through the afternoon. Chances remain less than 30
percent and mainly confined to areas along and east of Highway
65. While not particularly likely, if a storm can get tall
enough then it could briefly produce downburst winds to 50mph,
lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Storm motions will be slow
and generally following a more uncommon east to west movement.
Outside of storms, it will be warm and humid with highs in the
upper 80s. Storms should diminish with the loss of daytime
heating this evening.

Saturday: Upper level energy across Arkansas will begin to lift
north into the area during the day. An increase in moisture will
also occur with PW values increasing to 1.5-1.7in. High res
guidance is insistent in developing scattered showers and
thunderstorms beginning as early as mid morning and continuing
off and on during the day. Highest chances (near 60%) will be
east of Highway 65. Significant amount of clouds/precip will
limit instability therefore while a few thunderstorms will
occur, we are not seeing a signal for pulse severe storms at
this time. Given the higher PW`s and slow storm motions, locally
heavy rainfall will occur with the stronger cells and the
latest HREF data shows small pockets of up to 1 inch of
rainfall in localized areas. However most areas will see less
than 0.50 inch. Clouds/precip will likely keep temps much lower
than normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highest
readings will occur west of Springfield where rain chances are
less.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Sunday: The shortwave will begin its trek east on
Sunday with precip chances east of Highway 65 during the
afternoon. Areas west of Highway 65 will see more sunshine with
highs climbing back towards 90.

Monday through Thursday: Ensembles continue to be in agreement
that the mid level ridge out west will build into the central
and southern plains next week. Mean 850mb temps look to climb
into the 23-25C range which local climatology studies would
suggest median high temps in the middle 90s with the 75th
percentile of climatology closer to 100. While some areas are
drying out, many still have green vegetation which should keep
temps closer to those middle 90s. It should be noted that the
deterministic NBM numbers are right around the 90th percentile
therefore highs could be a few degrees cooler (especially west
of Springfield, closer to the middle 90s). Dewpoints will be on
the increase with readings in the lower to middle 70s
returning. Latest ensemble probs continue to suggest a 50-70%
chance of heat index values of 100 degrees or higher beginning
Monday, lasting through at least Thursday with the highest
chances west of Springfield. Heat Advisories could make a return
next week if this trend continues.

One fly in the ointment is that since the ridge will not be
directly overhead, we will still need to monitor for any systems
that can slide close enough to the area from the northwest.
Ensemble cluster means are beginning to show some precip
potential across northern, central and eastern Missouri
therefore will need to monitor to see if any systems can creep
into the area. This would have an impact on temps and excessive
heat. However given the uncertainty, precip chances remain below
30 percent for next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Clouds will increase through the afternoon with a 20 percent
chance for a shower or thunderstorm however coverage is too low
to include in the TAF at this time. Higher chances for rain
(40-60%) arrive on Saturday from late morning through afternoon
and prob30s have been included for SGF and BBG. Winds will
remain light out of the southeast. Brief MVFR fog may occur
again around sunrise Saturday at BBG.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield