Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 221907
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
207 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Key Messages:

1. Another cool night tonight (Temps in the 40s).

2. Showers and storms likely Tuesday through Wednesday.

3. Below average temps likely this week.

4. Near to slightly above normal temperatures for the holiday weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Dense mid and high level cloud cover continued to stream north
through the area this afternoon. The overcast conditions, weak
850mb cold air advection and a steady north wind has kept
temperatures well below average. Most locations were in the upper
50s to around 60 degrees. Surface high pressure over Kansas will
continue to spread east into the area tonight with winds becoming
lighter. High res ensemble guidance shows cloud cover decreasing
for portions of the overnight hours. Clearing skies, decreasing
winds and a drier airmass will lead to temps falling into the 40s
overnight into early Monday morning before additional clouds build
in towards sunrise.

Shortwave energy looks to move through the Rockies and into the
plains on Monday. A dry, easterly low level flow will persist
through most of the day, however mid and high level clouds will
move in from the west. Most of the area looks to remain dry on
Monday, with the exception of southeast Kansas and western
Missouri, where some light showers could creep in from the west.
Can not rule out some sprinkles further east as well. The clouds
will likely keep temps down into the 60s during the day. Generally
expecting a slight improvement over todays temps.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

A stronger shortwave looks to move out of northeastern New Mexico
Monday night, with an increasing low level jet across eastern
Kansas. Showers and isolated thunderstorms look to develop out
west and slide into southeast Kansas and western Missouri Monday
night. Areas west of Highway 65 have the highest chances for rain.
The latest HREF guidance shows that the mean rainfall amounts
through sunrise Tuesday ranges from 0.25 inches in southeast
Kansas to near zero along and east of Highway 65. Therefore
confidence is increasing that the main precip chances will hold
off until Tuesday.

On Tuesday, several pieces of shortwave energy will pivot around
the main trough to our west. Moisture quality and instability will
increase as low pressure develops to our southwest. A widespread
area of showers and isolated thunderstorms appears likely across
the area Tuesday through Tuesday night as NBM precip chances
remain high (greater than 80%). It is possible however that late
Tuesday night the precip band shifts south of the area where it
will intersect the low level jet. NBM probs continue to indicate
high chances for 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall with this round
Tuesday- Tuesday night. Any convective elements could lead to
higher amounts and some minor flooding will be possible given the
recent rains and elevated stream flows.

The main upper trough and front appear to move through on
Wednesday. While the latest ensemble clusters show the highest
precip south of the area (southern Arkansas), at least some qpf
is expected along the front during the day. This could bring up to
an additional 0.5 inch of rainfall per NBM probs. Instability
looks limited at this time for any severe threat.

Dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday as northwest flow
develops behind the departing storm system. Highs on Thursday will
approach the 70s however Friday appears to be much warmer as a
warmer low level airmass builds in.

Looking ahead to next weekend, model ensemble clusters are
showing decent agreement in dry and warm conditions for at least
the first part of the weekend however uncertainty increases
towards Memorial Day as the pattern could turn
southwesterly/unsettled. Temps look to climb above average, with
high probs for at least the lower 80s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. High clouds
will continue through the rest of the day before briefly clearing
out tonight. Additional clouds return on Monday, with a small
chance for a rain shower at JLN, however chances are too low to
include at this time. Winds will remain northerly until Monday,
when a shift to the east is expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield


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