Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 252338
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
638 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Currently across the area, temperatures were in the low to mid 80s
with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. The surface front was
located well to the west and north of the forecast area from
western Kansas through Iowa. A large upper trough was located over
the western U.S. with some shortwave energy out ahead of it in the
southern and central Rockies. ML CAPES early this afternoon were
in the 1500-2000 j/kg range with higher instability axis from the
TX panhandle into south central KS. PW values were generally in
the 1.4-1.5 in. range.

Main focus with this forecast package will be with convection
expected to develop west of the area this afternoon and move into
the area late tonight into Sunday morning. Then a strong upper
level system and surface front will likely cause strong to severe
convection late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

For the remainder of the afternoon and tonight, wouldn`t be
surprised to see some isolated convection develop in the soupy
airmass and instability over any portion of the area this
afternoon, but this activity should remain sub-severe and end with
the loss of daytime heating. Of a bit more concern is with the
convection again expected to develop this afternoon as shortwave
energy lifts northeast into the plains ahead of the main trough.
CAMS models bring this activity eastward this evening and into the
area overnight and into Sunday morning, generally affecting the
same locations which do not need anymore rain. Models are in
decent agreement that the MCS will be in decaying form as it moves
into the area and our QPF amounts out west are really not overly
impressive, however it won`t take much to cause flash flooding. So
have opted once again for a flash flood watch for the far western
portion of the CWA into the mid morning hours on Sunday and
starting at midnight. There is a slight risk of severe storms for
large hail and damaging wind with tonight`s activity over the far
western CWA as well, but feel the better chances of severe storms
will be west of the area.

The thunderstorm chances will linger over mostly the northern
portions of the CWA on Sunday morning, with lowering pops during
the afternoon. Highs should once again attain the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

There appears to be a brief respite from the thunderstorms and
heavy rain on Monday with the warm front well to the north of the
area and the main upper low over the Rockies with a ridge axis
over the area out ahead of the low.

That will change on Tuesday as the upper low churns to the east
into the northern and central plains with a cold front in western
Kansas and dry line over central Kansas by late in the day. Very
high PW values are progged over the area and quite a bit of
instability by late afternoon and evening and we are expecting a
round of strong to severe storms to develop over the western CWA.
SPC already has a day 4 30 percent bullseye over the western CWA.
The open wave will track eastward on Wednesday into Wednesday
night, however the main front will still have to push through the
area on Wednesday with redevelopment likely along the front. After
a brief (slightly) cooler and drier period Wednesday night into
Thursday, a zonal pattern will set up over the area with shortwave
energy again moving across the area late in the period and
convection returning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

VFR conditions will prevail for much of the evening with south
winds decreasing below 12 knots.

A weakening line of thunderstorms will then push into western
Missouri from late this evening into the overnight period. MVFR
and brief IFR conditions can be expected around storms, especially
around the Joplin aerodrome. Brisk and gusty winds from the west
are also expected as the line of thunderstorms arrives.

Farther east, the line may weaken enough for only scattered light
rain showers to impact Springfield and Joplin.

Once precipitation diminishes around sunrise on Sunday, VFR is
expected for the remainder of the day with south winds again
becoming gusty in the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Sunday
     morning for MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Sunday
     morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann


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