Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 051733
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1233 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

An upper level ridge axis was located from west TX into the
northern Rockies.  Surface high pressure was centered over
northern MO as of 2 AM with a much drier and cooler air mass in
place over the forecast area. Temperatures were in the upper 50s
to low 60s with dewpoints in the mid 50s. PWAT values were around
0.6 in. at KSGF from the 00Z sounding. One won`t have to look very
far to find the moisture though. An axis of 1.5 to 1.6 in. PWAT
values were across central OK into south central KS. Regional
radar shows MCS exiting southwest and south central KS and into OK
within this higher area of moisture.

Our short term forecast will focus on the temperatures as we see
the surface high depart to the east and a return to southerly
flow. The longer term will focus on the return of convection and
much warmer temperatures closer to normal and slightly above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

For today, the remnants of the MCS should stay to the west of the
forecast area. The surface high will push east into the OH valley
and Great Lakes region and we`ll gradually see winds become more
southerly on the back side of the high. Temperatures today will
still be well below normal with highs from the upper 70s to mid
80s with the cooler readings up in central MO.

Tonight, we`ll begin to see some upper level energy move east
across the top of the ridge and approaching the area from the
west. Should see more cloud cover and warmer temperatures than
currently with lows in the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 60s in the western portion of MO and southeast KS. Remnants of
some convection in the plains may make it into the western portion
of the forecast area by morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Heading into Thursday, we`ll start to see that shortwave energy
move into the area during the afternoon along with instability
increasing as moisture and temperatures increase during the day.
Still only looking at low to mid 80s for highs.

Convection chances increase, mainly over the western CWA on
Thursday night into Friday with that shortwave energy still moving
over the area and the low level jet pushing across the area. PWAT
values of 1.7 to 1.9 in. will be over the western CWA as well, so
there will be the potential of some heavy rain. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some localized flood potential set up Thursday
night into Friday over the western CWA. Temperatures are expected
to warm back into the upper 80s to around 90 in the western CWA on
Friday.

A warm front will then push through on Saturday and should see
temperatures warming back into the low to mid 90s across the area.
Afternoon instability really increases significantly and PWAT
values are in the sweet spot for some pulse thunderstorm activity.
Convection looks to be mostly scattered in nature and mainly from
the mid/late afternoon through the mid evening. Stronger storms
would probably have a wind risk. This scenario looks to continue
from Saturday into the first part of next week with highs in the
low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Heat index values
will be from the upper 90s to around 103 each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR with weak high pressure just off to the
east. We may see some showers/isolated storms off to the west of
the taf sites late in the taf period after 12z as a disturbance
approaches.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA


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