111
FXUS63 KSGF 151156
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Event winding down, but dust remains over the area.

- Elevated to significant fire danger Sunday through Tuesday and
  again Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Winds will continue to diminish and RH values gradually increase
through the rest of this early morning. Combination of very dry
air and gusty winds made it necessary to extend the Red Flag
Warning from yesterday until 6am today. Increasing moisture,
decreased winds, cloud cover, and chances for light rain will
prevent further extension into the daytime hours.

Ongoing dust over the area that was brought in behind the
dryline yesterday evening remains overhead early this morning.
It is unclear when the dust will exit the area, but dust
modeling does show gradual improvements through the day today
and complete clearing by tonight. May continue to see hazy
conditions

For today, shortwave energy may spark off some showers and
thunderstorms over mainly far south-central Missouri late this
morning into this evening.

This evening into tonight may see some light rain develop as an
upper trough moves through the area. Models show good coverage
of this activity, but amounts generally less than 0.10 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Fire weather is the primary focus in the long term. See Fire
Weather section for more details related to that.

Most days will be dry and breezy, hence the fire weather
concern, but there is a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night into Wednesday night as a trough passes through
the region. Will monitor for severe weather chances, but at this
moment it does not stand out as a notable concern.

Sunday will see highs in the 50s, followed by the 70s Monday and
Tuesday. Upper 50s to 60s for Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Dust and smoke will gradually clear today, with MVFR conditions
due to visibility drops. Showers are possible at all sites this
evening into tonight. MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings may result
this evening into tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Moisture will continue to increase this morning, but then settle
around 40-50% this afternoon. Skies will be cloudy with chances
for light rain over south-central MO during the day and across a
larger portion of the area this evening into tonight. Amounts
will be light.

Sunday: Elevated fire weather. highs in the 50s. MinRH 10-20%.
NW winds 10-20 mph gusting 20-30 mph. Sunny.

Monday: Elevated to significant fire weather. Highs in the 70s.
MinRH 15-25%. S-SW winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph. Sunny.

Tuesday: Elevated to locally significant fire weather. Highs in
the 70s. MinRH 25-35%. S-SW winds 20-35 mph gusting to 30-45
mph. Partly cloudy.

Wednesday: 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the
60s. MinRH 35-45%. W-NW winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph.
Partly cloudy.

Thursday and Friday: Elevated to locally significant fire
weather. Highs in the upper 50s to 60s. MinRh 20-30% or lower.
Winds 10-20 mph gusting to 20-30 mph.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus
FIRE WEATHER...Titus