005
FXUS63 KSGF 131908
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
108 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will move into the area tonight and last through the day
  Saturday (90-100% chance). There is a 50% chance for a few
  thunderstorms late tonight , mainly west of Springfield.

- Total rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely with a few
  localized areas receiving up to 3 inches. Ongoing drought and
  below normal streamflows will minimize any flooding potential.

- Above-average temperatures are likely (70-90% chance) next
  week with highs in the 60s and 70s returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a strong upper level trough digging across
the southwest US. Upper level ridging was occuring across the
central plains. Surface low pressure across the Rockies and high
pressure across the eastern US has allowed for southerly winds
out ahead of the next system. Moisture was beginning to surge
north across Texas with dewpoints down there now in the 50s and
60s south of a stationary front. Across the Ozarks, mostly
sunny skies and light winds were occuring with temps in the 50s
and 60s however the low levels were still dry with dews in the
20s and 30s.

Widespread Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms Tonight -
Saturday: A low level jet will set up tonight across Texas and
Oklahoma and will nose into southwest Missouri. This will
transport moisture into the area with the latest HREF
suggesting PW values approaching 1 inch by Sat morning which is
near the 90th percentile (well above normal). Additional lift
with the upper level system will move towards the area tonight
as well. Latest high res ensemble guidance also suggests that
elevated instability will develop across southeast Kansas and
western Missouri (mean MU CAPE around 500j/kg). HREF 1-hr
thunder probs are now in the 50-60% range mainly west of
Highway 65 overnight.

Expectations are for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across southeast Kansas and western
Missouri after 6pm and expand overnight as the low level jet
strengthens and noses into the area. Locations east of Highway
65 may not see rain until after midnight. Surface low pressure
looks to slide east/southeast across Oklahoma and Arkansas
during the day Saturday. While instability/thunder chances will
be lower, light to moderate rain showers are likely for most of
the day, with a slow decreasing trend Saturday night as the
surface low moves southeast of the area. Temperatures will
likely remain the 50s through the day.

Rainfall Amounts and Impacts: Given the high moisture content
and potential for convective elements (mainly west of
Springfield), a widespread soaking rainfall event is likely
across the area with this system. The highest rainfall rates
(0.25-0.75in per hour) look to occur overnight with any
isolated thunderstorms. The majority of the high res ensemble
members paint a widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall across the
area. There are indications of a narrow corridor of 3 inches of
rainfall with this system. The exact location of this is
difficult to pin point however locations near or just
west/southwest of Springfield seem to be in the most likely
overlapping spot for this (given convective element potential).
The NAM/NAMNest seem to be a northern outlier with this system
as it is showing the highest amounts along and north of Highway
54. This seems to be tied to a farther north low level jet. We
will monitor for any northward trends in future updates. There
is the potential for a few sites to reach or break record precip
for Saturday (see climate section below) however it may be
difficult given the rain starting prior to midnight at Joplin
and Springfield.

Severe to extreme drought and well below normal streamflows are
certainly limiting factors to what would normally be a flooding
concern given these forecast rainfall amounts and dormant
vegetation. While some areas will see water ponding and some
increase in stream flows, the flooding potential looks marginal
at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Above Normal Temps and Mostly Dry Next Week: Ensembles are in
decent agreement of mid level height rises and 850mb temps
increasing into the 10-16C range by Tuesday and especially
Wednesday. These temps are near the 99th percentile and when
combined with increasing southwest winds will lead to well above
normal temperatures. Latest NBM shows small interquartile temp
spreads with high confidence in high temps in the 70s Tuesday
and Wednesday. These high temps will be with 5 degrees of
records (see climate section below). Lows Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning may even remain in the 50s. We will also
need to monitor the fire danger by the middle of next week.
The well above normal temps, gusty winds and drought could lead
to an elevated fire danger however the weekend rains could keep
the threat somewhat lower.

Ensembles also suggest that a strong upper level disturbance
will move into the western US and Rockies mid week with some
attempt to move south into the central plains however confidence
is low therefore precip chances remain less than 30 percent for
next Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail until about
00z when increasing clouds and rain chances arrive from the west.
Rain chances increase through the night with widespread rain, MVFR
ceilings and vis likely overnight through Saturday morning. We
have added some prob30s for thunderstorm potential overnight
with the highest chances towards Joplin. There is also
increasing potential for brief IFR ceilings Saturday morning.
Winds will remain out of the southeast with speeds and gusts
increasing on Saturday morning. Low level wind shear is possible
tonight but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026


Record High Temperatures:

February 17:
KSGF: 73/1911
KJLN: 74/2011
KVIH: 73/2017

February 18:
KSGF: 74/2016
KJLN: 78/1986
KVIH: 72/1991
KUNO: 77/1986

February 19:
KSGF: 75/2017
KUNO: 73/1981



Record Precipitation:

February 14:
KSGF: 2.10/1908
KJLN: 1.54/1992
KVIH: 1.50/1949
KUNO: 1.46/1949




&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield