Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KSGF 261708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1115 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020


issued at 257 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

A shortwave trough was moving through the region early this
morning with just a few sprinkles in a few locations. Most
precipitation has been confined to southern Oklahoma and Arkansas,
closer to better lift and forcing. Where clouds existed, temps
have stayed up well into the 30s. Clouds will be in and out today
as additional shortwave energy moves down from the northwest.
Given the warmer start, temps should still reach the 40s to around
50 today, with warmest readings across far southwest Missouri. May
see a few sprinkles or brief shower across south central Missouri
this afternoon as the shortwave energy moves close by however most
locations will likely remain dry.

Skies will clear out during the overnight, this combined with
light winds will likely allow for temps to fall well below
afternoon crossover temps, therefore fog is likely to form,
especially towards Monday morning. Currently have visibilities
dropping below a mile at times across the area. Forecast soundings
show good potential for fog development. Will need to monitor for
dense fog potential as we get closer.

During the daytime hours on Monday, a shortwave across Iowa will
drop down into Missouri, bringing with it a cold front which will
likely move through the area during afternoon/evening. Temps
however ahead of the front should still rise at or slightly above
Sunday`s highs, however fog may slow the rise early on in the day.

Also of note Monday will be a mid level trough that pushes into
the Rockies and then into the Red River Valley by early Tuesday.
While at this time, blended model guidance indicates most precip
will occur south of the area with this system, we will be close
to the northern edge of precip Tuesday and Tuesday night and PoPs
are around 20-30 percent along I-44, increasing to near 50% near
Branson. The Canadian model appears to be a much farther north
outlier at this time with the overall track of this system however
nothing can be completely discounted at least until the system
makes it onshore and better sampled. Thermal profile with this
system would give the potential for some rain to change to snow
Tuesday night however confidence is pretty low on this potential
at this time. Overall temps Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler
than previous days.

Additional quick moving shortwaves move in from the west by the
end of the week and into the weekend however at this time precip
chances look small. Temperatures however do look to warm above
average Friday but especially into next Weekend.


Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
have VFR flight conditions through today and this evening. Surface
winds will be light and variable for the most part.

Fog leading to reduced visibilities will be common tonight. Some
dense fog can not be ruled out, with visibilities approaching a
quarter of a mile at times in some areas.

Safe Travels.




AVIATION...Burchfield is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.