Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
706 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

In a bit of a lull right now with morning convection having
stabilized conditions. Convection is firing along a distinct
outflow boundary over northeast AR. The boundary becomes less
distinct has farther to west into NW AR. Another shortwave that
extends form south central KS into central OK will shift northeast
with lift increasing over the area, especially the western cwfa
late this afternoon and this early this evening. MLCAPE values off
the HRRR reach 1000-1500 j/kg with around 30kts 0-6km bulk shear
which would support multicell or possibly supercells with a large
hail and damaging wind risk for a few hours before the wave lifts
off to the northeast. Questions still consist of how long
convection will linger into the eastern counties overnight. Have
raised rain chances using a blend of cams/short term guidance.

In general, Monday looks more quiet with weak mid level height

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Mid level shortwave ridging and height rises are expected through
midweek as an upstream closed upper low moves into the western
CONUS. Can`t rule out some diurnally driven isolated pulse
convection through midweek, but coverage looks limited. The
western upper trough opens up and lifts well northwest of the
area. Late in the week a blocking upper level pattern develops
with a slow moving upper low moving north out of the Gulf of
Mexico and another moving east from the western CONUS. Chaotic
upper level flow doesn`t generate much confidence in the forecast.
May see an uptick in diurnal convection late in the period, but
no major systems are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Pilots can expect variable flight conditions tonight into Monday.
Storms will push east of the terminal sites this evening. A front
will move across the region late tonight and Monday morning
bringing a wind shift and lowering ceilings. Expect MVFR to
potentially IFR ceilings spreading west to east late tonight and
Monday morning. Improving flight conditions can be expected by
Monday afternoon.




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