Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 162055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
255 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

A nice warmup occurred for our area today and we kept having to
revise our temperatures upward. South or southeast winds should
keep temperatures from getting too cool/cold tonight prior to an
expected cold frontal passage on Saturday.

The center of another strong Canadian sfc high will move
southeast into the Dakotas by midday Saturday. This will push
that cold front through the area. With the frontal passage
itself, there will not be too much active weather other than a
wind shift with temperatures beginning to drop behind the front.
North of I-44, Saturday`s high temperatures are likely going to
occur in the morning or midday depending on the timing of the
front. South of Springfield and especially along the MO/AR state
line, temperatures could reach into 60s again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

Main concern is the the chances for freezing drizzle or a very
light wintry mix Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Saturday night-Sunday: As the sfc high moves south, isentropic
upglide and low level moisture south of the center of the cold air
mass and an approaching shortwave will produce the chances for
some light precip, mostly Sat night into Sunday morning. Moisture
depth and thermal profiles vary with different models, but not
sure we will have the moisture depth for cloud ice, at least over
a large area. Consensus guidance did not favor much cloud ice and
will stick with that for now (3km NAM profile might be the most
similar). Temperatures will be at or just below freezing, mostly
north of I-44 during this time. Have drizzle/freezing drizzle in
most areas late Sat night and early Sunday. Will watch trends in
the forecast for this time frame. The precip will be light, so the
main concern will be possible travel impacts.

Rest of the week: The good news is that Sunday looks to be the
coldest day of the week. A very weak dry cold front will pass by
late Mon. As sfc high pressure drops to the south and east of our
area, a warming trend for Wed and Thanksgiving Day is expected
with dry weather. A blend of guidance indicates that a system will
affect the region by Friday with a chance for rain (favored by
the ECMWF and GDPS versus the GFS).


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A dry sfc cold front will approach the taf
sites during the period. With a dry atmosphere in place, expect
VFR conditions.




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