Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 282250
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

..A Flood Watch is in effect until Thursday Evening..

Current GOES 16 WV satellite imagery depicts an upper-level
closed low spinning into the Red River Valley of Texas. Meanwhile
along the northern Gulf Coast, Hurricane Zeta is making landfall.

A steady rain has lifted into southern Missouri this afternoon and
will persist through the overnight hours as the upper- level low
pivots into the Ozarks and a moisture-rich air mass glides
isentropically into the region on a deep Gulf fetch.

In glancing at the latest NBM probabilities and HREF runs, our
confidence remains high that a swath of 1-3 inches of rainfall
will spread across the entire area this evening into Thursday
afternoon, with the higher amounts along and south of I-44. Some
of the more recent runs from the HRRR and RAP suggest some
isolated 3-5 inch maxima occurring somewhere along
Missouri/Arkansas border. This should not be discounted given the
anomalously moist airmass in place. Per climatology (GEFS
M-Climate output), this airmass ranks above the 99th percentile
for available moisture for this time of year.

We are less confident in the impacts this heavy rainfall event
will have. Despite a very dry summer and early fall, antecedent
conditions have been wetted by rainfall that occurred this past
Monday in locations south of I-44. With incoming rain expected to
fall over a similar footprint, rises to creeks, small streams and
low-water crossings could lead to some flooding. If nothing more,
this rainfall event will alleviate the current drought
conditions.

Otherwise, synoptic wind gusts will increase late tonight into
early Wednesday as Hurricane Zeta makes its extra-tropical
transition and begins to phase together with the departing upper-
level low. Occasional gusts to 35 MPH will be possible, mainly
along the Ozark plateau.

Rain will gradually end from west to east by Thursday evening as
the upper-level low opens up and translates across the Tennessee
Valley and a ridge begins to build into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The pattern turns quiet by Friday as upper-level flow becomes
zonal across the Plains. Temperatures should rebound to nearly 60
degrees as compressional warming across the front range advects
into the area.

Shortwave energy will dig into the Great Lakes region later this
weekend. This will help drive a dry cold front through the Ozarks
late Saturday night. Temperatures will be a little cooler on
Sunday behind the frontal passage, but generally speaking,
temperatures into next week look seasonal with daily highs near 60
degrees and overnight lows near 40 degrees as an amplified ridge
builds across the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Upper level system will continue to push east across OK and AR
during the forecast period. Rain will continue to spread north
into the area tonight. IFR/LIFR will persist until late in the
period. A tight pressure gradient will set up over the area as the
remnants of Zeta races to the northeast from the deep south to the
mid Atlantic coast by 00z tomorrow. Gusty winds will start this
evening over the area and continue for much of Thursday, with some
gusts over 30 kts possible. Rain should end by mid to late
afternoon with conditions improving to VFR by the end of the
period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MOZ082-083-088-090>098-
     101>106.

KS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albano
LONG TERM...Albano
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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