Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192241

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
541 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Light rain was moving across portions of central Missouri this
afternoon as warm air and moisture advection was ongoing south of
a warm front now across northern Missouri. This was occurring in
advance of an area of surface low pressure moving across the

The surface low will make its way into Missouri this evening with
more widespread light rainfall occuring across the Ozarks and
southeastern Kansas. With little to no instability with this
system, no thunder is expected. The rain will push across the
region overnight tonight and exit east of the area by late
morning to early afternoon on Wednesday. Rainfall amounts are
expected to be light with most locations seeing less than a
quarter inch of rainfall.

With a cold front moving through the area behind the rain,
temperatures will be some 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday compared
to the lower 60s expected today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

High pressure will move over the region by Wednesday night and
remain in control of the areas weather into the end of the week. A
warming trend and mild weather will occur from tomorrow night
through Friday night with afternoon temperatures in the lower to
middle 60s by Friday.

The next chance for rainfall comes as early as Saturday morning
to as late as Saturday evening depending on which model you
choose. The most aggressive model is the EMCWF which bring rain to
the area by Saturday morning and keeps rain across the region
through Monday night as a slow moving system moves across the
plains and through the region.

The Canadian model has the lowest rainfall amounts but is the
slowest with rain lingering into Tuesday while the GFS is
somewhere in between. Overall the GFS seems to have a good handle,
and the forecast was done using it in mind, on rainfall amounts
and system dynamics, though will likely allow for some blending
with the other models.

Some instability will come with this system as an upper level
trough moves across the region which should aid in lift. This
instability will be limited though and only expecting isolated
storms through Saturday and Sunday. No severe weather is expected.

For the start of next week, high pressure again moves into the
area and should remain in control through most of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

An upper level shortwave and associated surface cold front will
push through the area tonight into Wednesday. Some rain will move
in with this system overnight along with lower ceilings into the
MVFR range. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front
during the day Wednesday.




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