Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1204 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019


Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Water vapor shows an amplified pattern over the CONUS with a
fairly deep shortwave over the west coast, ridging over the
central U.S. and another trough off the east coast. Also, remnants
of tropcial system Imelda over the TX/LA gulf coast. Locally,
temperatures were still quite warm for 2 AM in mid September with
readings in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Dewpoints were in the mid to
upper 60s.

The main focus in the short term will be with the continued heat
over the area and chances for a few showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon. In the extended, we will focus on shower/thunderstorm
activity with the remnants of Imelda and tropical moisture in the
area then with a front interacting  with this moisture.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For today, temperatures will heat up once again during the day
with a warm start to the morning. Highs may be tempered slightly
from previous couple of days with more scattered convection of the
area and cloud cover during the afternoon, but still looking at
low to mid 90s possible. PW values will begin to increase over the
area from the south as Imelda remants drift north into Arkansas.
Still expecting lows tonight in the in the upper 60s to around 70

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

On Friday, remnants of Imelda will begin to push into southern MO,
while the main upper trough to the west will slide east into the
Rockies, with a large Pacific fetch of moisture from Baja into the
plains meeting up with the Gulf moisture flowing north into the
area. As a result, PW values will be on the increase into the 1.7
to 1.8 in. range. Showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous on Friday over the area. The main upper wave will affect
areas north and west of our CWA over the weekend, and also having
a higher instability axis northwest of the area. As a result, the
better heavy rain chances will be over our northwest CWA and
points north and west of the CWA. QFP amounts through Sunday range
from 1-2 inches along and northwest of the I-44 corridor with
lesser amounts southeast of there. With the recent dry spell and
heat which has dried out a lot of the vegetation, we are not
expecting wide spread flooding at this time through the weekend.

With the shortwave tracking north of the area this weekend, a
surface boundary will become more stationary in the vicinity of
the CWA early next week and will offer additional rain chances
through the middle of next week. The rain chances and cloud cover
from Friday through the extended will keep temperatures cooler
than we`ve had in the past week, with readings generally in the
lower to middle 80s for highs.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

VFR conditions can be expected across all southwest Missouri
terminals through much of this TAF period as upper-level ridging
dominates the weather pattern for one final day.

For this afternoon, patches of cumulus will develop with cloud
bases generally around 5 kft. Isolated showers or thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out this afternoon, especially near the JLN
terminal, but coverage and confidence will be too low to include
mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, surface winds will be from the
south at 5-10 kts.

A pattern change begins Friday morning across the Ozarks with a
remnant tropical disturbance passing near the region. Clouds will
begin to lower beyond 12z, and showers and a few thunderstorms
will enter the region by 18z with MVFR conditions becoming likely
across the BBG and JLN terminals. Some degree of low-level wind
shear is also possible beyond 12z Friday, with 30-40 kt winds in
the 1-5 kft layer.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Albano is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.