Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201120
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
520 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

...UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

Temperatures will be on the cooler side today with highs in the
low to mid 40s for most of the region. Areas in the northeastern
portion of the CWA may only top out in the upper 30s. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions to go along with plenty of sunshine for
your Tuesday afternoon as high pressure continues to build into
the region. This area of high pressure will also will result in
rather light winds through the day. For tonight, expect lows to
drop into the low 30s for most, with only a few locations dropping
into the upper 20s in low lying areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 202 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

High pressure will slide south of the Ozarks early Wednesday as a
weak dry cold front slides into northern Missouri. The front will
remain north of the area through the day as an upper level ridge
begins moving east, allowing southerly surface winds to bring
some warmer air into the region with highs in the 50s across the
area.

The ridge will slide over the Ozarks on Thanksgiving and bring a
very mild and dry airmass to the region. Is should be an excellent
day to enjoy some outdoor activities before and after Thanksgiving
dinner. South winds will continue with afternoon highs around or
near the 60 degree mark.

A deepening upper level trough will then move quickly across the
plains and bring a cold front and rain to the region fairly
rapidly, exiting to the east of the Mississippi River by early
Saturday morning. Very strong southerly return flow will bring
warm air advection and temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Saturday afternoon.

Models at this point heading into Sunday and Monday are continuing
to show a dynamic storm system deepening rapidly in the plains
and moving towards the region during the day Sunday. As in past
models runs, the placement and track of the surface low, system
speed and ultimate precipitation type remains the big question.
The models have however become more consistent in developing
precipitation.

Depending on the ultimate track of the low, the region could see
all rain or a rain changing to snow mix. If the models were to
trend farther south with the system, we could see more snow as the
00Z GFS does have a TROWAL-ish signature to it. This however is
the outlier in the models for now.

Regardless of which model is proven correct, temperatures to start
next week will struggle to climb out of the 30s during the
afternoon as cold air returns to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

Expect VFR conditions across all the TAF sites through the TAF
period. Winds will be light at 5-7 knots out of the northwest
before becoming variable this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Perez
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch/Perez


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