Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 161146
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
646 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Some patchy shallow ground fog has developed overnight as winds
have gone nearly calm. This fog will dissipate quickly this
morning. The main concern for the remainder of today and tonight
will then be the potential for showers and thunderstorms.

Short wave energy will slowly approach the region from the
northwest throughout the day. Meanwhile, inspection of model
soundings indicates an uncapped atmosphere this afternoon. This
would bode well for thunderstorm development. However, mid and
upper level moisture is lacking and there is a small layer of poor
lapse rates immediately above the level of free convection (LFC).
This may therefore limit updraft strength and overall coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. We have therefore opted to go with
isolated shower and thunderstorm wording in the forecast for this
afternoon. Highs today should generally warm into the lower 80s.

Showers and thunderstorms should generally diminish this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. However, that approaching short
wave trough may keep the door open for very isolated convection
overnight. Lows tonight should once again be in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

That short wave trough will then drift southeast through the
region on Thursday. This may provide a focus for widely scattered
showers and storms, especially across south-central Missouri in
the afternoon. A few of these storms could produce locally gusty
winds. Temperatures on Thursday may be a tad warmer with highs
expected to be in the lower to middle 80s.

An upper level short wave ridge will then approach the region on
Friday. A developing warm front should also move northeast into
the Ozarks from Friday afternoon into Friday night. This front
may provide a focus for widely scattered thunderstorms, especially
across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. This
frontal boundary will also mark the return of better moisture
quality. Thus, there will be the potential for a few stronger
storms.

That short wave ridge will shift over the Ozarks Friday night
before shifting east of the area on Saturday. This will put the
region in a general west-southwest flow aloft into early next
week. Global models indicate several short wave troughs moving
through the region during this time period with a frontal boundary
also sagging southeast into the area. Thus, there will be
multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms from this weekend
into early next week. We have gone with PoPs in the 20-50% range
for now through the period until we can better pinpoint the
timing and placement of the front and upper level short wave
energy.

As for temperatures, we are looking at a general warming trend to
end the week with highs returning into the middle to upper 80s.
Temperatures should then cool down a bit early next week as that
front gets into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Areas of shallow ground fog will persist early this morning. IFR
and LIFR conditions can be expected with the fog.

The fog will then dissipate by mid-morning with cumulus clouds
and MVFR ceilings then developing. Ceilings should then rise into
the VFR category this afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms are then expected this afternoon and this
evening. At this time, we believe coverage will be too limited to
include in the TAFs. Amendments will be possible as localized
MVFR and IFR conditions are expected with stronger storms.

Winds through tonight will generally remain light and variable but
will be gusty around thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann



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