


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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874 FXUS63 KSGF 072046 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 346 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances (30-55%) this afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rainfall and winds up to 50-60 mph is possible with strongest pulse storms. - More organized chances (50-65%) for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday beginning early afternoon across the area. There is the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph in addition to localized heavy rainfall. - Additional rain chances (30-50%) persist through late week into next weekend. Highest chances occur in the afternoon and evenings. - Temperatures remain near normal for early July. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Synoptic Overview: Flow remains quasi-zonal to our north in the upper levels, with the Ozarks placed between two transient shortwaves pulsing off the parent flow to the north. A weak trailing surface boundary has stalled across central Missouri, which is collocated along the edge of a low-level moisture gradient. We are also sitting along the northern edge of a low-level ridge of high pressure focused over the Mid-South. Storms Chances/Mode This Afternoon: Broad 20-50% PoPs this afternoon, with highest (30-55%) chances furthest south near the AR/MO state line. Overall confidence in where rain will develop is low, but synoptic support will be strongest furthest south along the edge of the high-pressure ridge, with secondary forcing along the instability gradient ahead of the front to the north. Mode is expected to be pulse to pulse clusters, with questions about coverage contributing to low confidence in precip chances at a single point location. However, forecaster confidence in occurrence of pulse storms somewhere in the forecast area this afternoon is high. Storm Hazards: The pulse-y nature of the storms will make marginally severe damaging winds 45-60 mph associated with collapsing storms the primary severe hazard. DCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg and theta-e differences >25 K provide an environment ripe for wet microbursts in storms that develop robust updrafts. However, the environment also remains very moist, and within a weak shear regime with PW values 1.8-2", these pulse storms will be very efficient rainfall producers. Localized rainfall rates 1.5-2.5" per hour will be possible within these storms. Additionally, behavior will likely be similar to yesterday (slow-moving, potentially short periods of training off its own outflow) which could increase residence time over a given area and elevate rate-driven flash flood concerns, especially in urban areas. Recent HRRR runs and 12Z HREF LPMMs indicate that small pockets of 3-5" will be in the realm of possibility for the strongest and longest-lasting storms. Early afternoon mesoanalysis also shows 0-3km CAPE >75 J/kg and a weak thermal ridge approaching the boundary, so brief funnels or maybe a landspout could be sighted, especially further north along the boundary mainly over central Missouri. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Tuesday: Some models/12Z HREF members keep convection lingering through the overnight hours and into early Tuesday morning, but lingering convection won`t make much of a difference in the environment ahead of convection later in the day, with more than enough instability (>3000 J/kg SBCAPE) and increasing shear supporting more widespread development of thunderstorms as opposed to pulsers as another round of upper-level energy moves through the area. Late morning through the afternoon sees an increase to 35-60% PoPs, which remain into the evening and overnight hours. The increased organization of storms brings an increased chance of widespread MCS-driven damaging winds, with winds 50-65 mph possible. Efficient rainfall rates keep elevated flash flood concerns in the forecast, especially with more widespread convection. Current model guidance suggests the strongest portions of the organized MCS stays to our west in Kansas/Oklahoma, but with favorable thermos especially in our western counties, would not be surprised to see the SPC Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe storms be extended slightly into our western counties. Wednesday-Sunday: The northern Plains shortwave that disrupts our early week zonal flow pattern moves through the Great Lakes to the east, with the passage of a 925/850mb front on Wednesday behind the MCS bringing some dry air into the area. This will help mitigate afternoon precip chances, especially furthest northwest, with areas along and northwest of I-44 likely to stay dry Wednesday (<25% chances). NBM QPF footprints suggest most areas stay dry and the eastern Ozarks maybe seeing a few lingering sprinkles Wednesday evening. A shortwave ejects across the northern Plains again Thursday before a stronger large-scale trough pushes across the central CONUS on Friday. This will send a cold front surging south into the weekend, keeping 20-35% PoPs each day through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Light and variable winds with a scattered low cu field across parts of the area early this afternoon, which will become more robust as scattered pulse showers and thunderstorms develop through the late afternoon hours. While confidence in overall pulse storm placement/development is low, confidence in favorable environment for storm development is highest furthest south, including at BBG. Lightning will be likely in strong storms that develop, bringing thunder at least to the vicinity of all terminals this afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Camden