Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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760
FXUS63 KSGF 240445
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Upper level low pressure which is pretty much stalled over the
Missouri Bootheel will finally begin to push east tonight. The
western shield of clouds and light showers/drizzle will also begin
to move east, but light precip will remain possible for much of
the night over the far eastern Ozarks.

There is some concern for fog potential, especially over western
Missouri and southeastern Kansas where skies will be mostly clear
and temperatures will cool the most. However, application of the
UPS Fog Technique indicates shallow and patchy fog at best. With
dry air also advecting in from the north for the remainder of the
afternoon, we have decided to leave fog out of the forecast for
now and will pass this concern onto future shifts.

After low temperatures in the middle to upper 40s, a nice recovery
to temperatures is expected for Tuesday with most areas warming
into the lower to middle 70s. The one exception will be the
eastern Ozarks where some lingering clouds may keep highs in the
upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Short wave energy will then dig through the region from late
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This will bring a good shot
at more rain showers to the entire region. Most areas will receive
less than a quarter of an inch of rainfall. We did add a slight
chance for thunder into the forecast as models indicate just
enough instability for a few lightning strikes.

Thursday then looks like a nice day once clouds clear out behind
that system. High temperatures should warm into the upper 60s.
Another compact short wave trough will then dive through the
region Thursday night and Friday morning bringing yet another
chance for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.

Global models then indicate a large scale pattern shift from this
weekend into early next week with a deep southwesterly flow
developing. This will lead to a gradual warming trend. We should
also see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as we
head towards next Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will be light and variable through the night,
eventually becoming north at 5 to 10 mph Tuesday morning.

An exiting storm system will help skies become mostly clear.

Safe Travels

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer



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