Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180439

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1139 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018


Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Stratus was slowly retreating/mixing north this afternoon however
it was hanging tough across areas north of the Interstate.
Temperatures were much cooler across the north as a result of the
cloud cover and continued 850mb cold air advection. A surface low
was located over Kentucky with a trailing cold front back
west/southwest through Arkansas and Texas. Surface high pressure
axis was located over the Dakotas extending into Nebraska and

A large upper level low moving across the Western US will be our
next precip maker for the area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday evening)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Expect low cloud cover to remain across the northern half of the
area Tonight with some mid to high level clouds moving in from the
south. If some clearing does occur, then some patchy fog will be
possible, right now the eastern half of the area looks to be the
most favored. Temps will slowly drop into the 30s tonight as high
pressure slides north of the area.

The first half of Sunday looks dry with increasing cloudiness and
temps climbing to near 60. By afternoon, a shortwave will approach
from the southwest and in conjunction with an increasing low level
jet, precip will breakout from Oklahoma into Southwest Missouri.
Looks like precip will move in during the late afternoon and early
evening hours. Initially, very little instability will exist
therefore mainly just rain showers. As the main upper low and a
stout 130kt upper level jet approaches Sunday night, additional
showers will develop and move through the area. Some elevated
instability will develop very late Sunday night into early Monday
morning, primarily across extreme SE Kansas and far southern
Missouri. Can`t rule out some small hail with a few storms however
not looking at anything overly organized at this time. Rainfall
amounts Sunday Night look to range from 0.25 to 0.75in.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The area of low pressure will move directly over southern Missouri
on Monday with continued chances for rain. The northern half of
the area will be most favored given the track of the low with some
potential for dry slotting across southern Missouri. Temps will be
cooler with developing northerly winds. Precip looks to end
Monday night.

Tuesday through Thursday will feature northwest mid level flow.
This will allow a few weak waves to move through, generally just
bringing some cloud cover however cant rule out a shower at times
if moisture is available. Temps will be seasonable during this

By late Thursday night and Friday another large disturbance moves
across the Rockies and into the Plains with precip developing
across the area. Differences in model guidance exist with the GFS
moving the system through much faster than the ECMWF and Canadian.
Therefore precip chances are a bit uncertain by the end of the
week. Daytime temperatures however will be up into the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

A storm system was approaching the region from the west. There is
a chance that some MVFR ceilings occur during the Sunday morning
hours. However, most locations will experience VFR conditions
through Sunday afternoon.

Showers and even some isolated thunderstorms are expected Sunday
evening and night. Therefore, any airfield that is directly
impacted by a cell will experience lower flight conditions.

Pilots can expect east to northeast breezes through the night.

Safe Travels.




SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.