135
FXUS64 KTSA 121724
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A few light showers have been noted this morning across parts of
northeast OK, but for the most part conditions remain dry. 12z
RAOB at KSGF still showing a considerable layer of dry air all the
way into the mid levels and expectation remains that this dry air
will hold any notable precip chances at bay until stronger forcing
associated with upper low spreads over eastern OK later this
afternoon, and more so this evening. Current forecast of
gradually increasing POPs from afternoon into tonight still looks
good based on current data, though did include a mention of
showers this morning NW of Tulsa in and earlier update. High
temps should be held down some by increasing clouds and will keep
as is for right now.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Better shower/ storm chances continue across the region tonight
through Monday as the upper level system gradually moves overhead
with a sfc low and associated weak cold front pushing through the
area. Instability will be increasing early Monday morning into the
afternoon hours... particularly across SE OK & NW AR... and with
sufficiently steep lapse rates & shear values, marginally severe
hail or wind may be observed with the strongest storms. However,
the severe threat is still expected to remain on the marginal
side, especially for May standards. PWATs between 1.25 to 1.5" are
advertised during the Sunday- Monday time frame, suggesting that
locally heavy rainfall may become a concern, especially given how
wet things have been recently. While much of the area should be
clear of precip by Monday night, guidance holds on to some wrap
around moisture and thus low precip chances across NW AR through
Tuesday morning & afternoon. Any rainfall during this period
should remain fairly light, however. Overall, expecting total QPF
Sunday through Tuesday in the 0.5 to 1.5" range... with a low
potential for locally higher totals up to 2".

While there will be a break in precip Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, rain and storm chances return Wednesday night through
Friday as multiple impulses move through our area. Locally heavy
rainfall and a marginal severe threat may again evolve during this
time frame, but significant impacts are not expected as of now.
Ridging develops for the weekend with pleasant weather returning
to the CWA.

High temps will tend to hover near to slightly below seasonal
averages (upper 70s to lower 80s) through the extended period,
with a warm up expected by the weekend (mid-upper 80s). Low temps
remain in the 50s and 60s. While winds may be periodically breezy
as each weather system impacts the CWA, gusts should keep to the
15-25 mph range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Area of light to moderate showers across western and central OK
will continue to make gradual progress east through the remainder
of the afternoon. An eventual increase in precip coverage through
the forecast area is expected closer to 00z and continue beyond
that, with transition to MVFR conditions at most sites in the
03z-06z time frame. This period will also see an increase in
instability, so the PROB30 for thunder at all sites is maintained
through a good part of Monday morning. Indications are that IFR
ceilings will become more prevalent by around 12z, with at least
some potential for LIFR conditions in thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  61  77  59 /  30  90  60  20
FSM   80  63  79  61 /  30  70  70  30
MLC   76  62  79  58 /  50  70  60  20
BVO   79  58  76  56 /  30  90  70  30
FYV   78  59  77  57 /  20  70  80  50
BYV   79  59  75  58 /  30  70  80  50
MKO   78  61  76  58 /  30  80  70  30
MIO   79  61  74  58 /  30  90  90  50
F10   76  61  77  57 /  40  80  60  20
HHW   73  63  80  59 /  70  50  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14