Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191726
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Morning convection over NE OK has mostly dissipated, with
attention turning to thunderstorm potential later this afternoon
and especially overnight. Current indications are strong to severe
storms may develop from western into north central OK as early as
21z, potentially impacting NE OK TAFS a little before 00z, with
additional more widespread storms after 06z, again with main
impacts focused on NE OK. A weak frontal boundary will push
through parts of the area by early Sunday morning with a period
of MVFR cigs likely behind it. Will also likely see MVFR
conditions with thunderstorms.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1040 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered elevated convection continues in narrow zone of warm
advection this morning across northeast OK. Will continue to see
downward trend in this activity during the next few hours, with
decreasing clouds and a hot and humid afternoon. Have issued
another update to freshen up morning precip chances, afternoon POP
configuration looks okay for now as strong to severe storms
expected to develop to our west this afternoon and move into
eastern OK this evening. However, CAM solutions are trending
toward earlier development of storms into northeast OK in the
21-00z time frame.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 621 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 12Z TAF forecast can be found below.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
The main aviation concern will be tstorm potential tonight. The
best potential will be at the NE OK sites, where a tempo group was
added during the most favorable time window at each site. Prob30
groups were added at the other sites for the tail end of the
period with the expectation that storms will eventually make their
way to these sites thru the night. MVFR cigs are expected behind a
weak boundary in the wake of the storms at the NE OK sites late in
the period.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns for this forecast focus on storm potential for today
through the next several days. Early morning radar loops show the
large MCS across Kansas with numerous boundaries noted across
OK/TX. The main synoptic front is over north central Oklahoma,
likely reinforced with gravity waves/undular bores or thunderstorm
outflow. The dryline in the TX panhandle will also be a focus for
convection this afternoon.

For today, showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible just
about anywhere due to the divergent southwest flow at upper
levels. Will keep low pops for parts of northeast Oklahoma this
morning where isolated showers have been persistent overnight.
The main precipitation event will develop late this afternoon
into tonight. The short term guidance and global models blow up a
line of strong to severe storms between 4-7pm along the front in
Oklahoma and the TX dryline. The airmass will be capped farther
east, but the capping inversion has weakened over the past few
days given the observed soundings last night at Lamont and Norman.
Whatever develops west of here will move in tonight into the
early morning hours on Sunday. Large hail and damaging winds will
be the main severe threats tonight, in addition to training
storms, which could produce locally heavy rainfall.

Sunday will be noticeably cooler behind the front, with highs
only in the low to mid 80s. There probably will be a good amount
of remaining convective cloud cover for part of the day as well.
Monday and Tuesday will be quieter, with a building upper ridge by
Tuesday. Low chances for storms will persist through much of next
week, though the chances for widespread severe weather are low
for eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas after tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  66  81  63 /  30  50  30  20
FSM   92  70  88  68 /  10  20  20  20
MLC   89  69  84  64 /  10  30  30  20
BVO   91  64  77  58 /  20  60  40  20
FYV   88  65  83  62 /  10  40  20  20
BYV   88  66  85  62 /  10  40  20  20
MKO   90  68  82  64 /  20  40  30  20
MIO   90  65  80  60 /  30  50  30  20
F10   90  68  80  63 /  20  40  40  20
HHW   89  68  86  67 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION.....14



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