Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 132324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/

Surface high extends from southern Canada into north Texas this
afternoon with a cool and very dry airmass residing over the
forecast area. As the high builds south and winds subside. near
ideal radiational cooling conditions result with most areas
falling into the 20s or lower 30s. Winds will turn around Thursday
as the high moves off to the east and this will start a
significant warming trend through the end of the week. Fire
weather will be an increasing concern the next few days in this
regime. Some areas of northeast OK could see near critical fire
weather conditions as early as Wednesday afternoon as wind speeds
increase out of the south and dew points remain very low.

Some degree of moisture return will commence Thursday with
stronger south winds and temperatures climbing well above normal
in the afternoon. At this time it appears RH should be just above
critical but again this will need close scrutiny. By Thursday
evening a warm front will push northward as upper wave passes to
the north, with more meaningful moisture return during that time.
Elevated instability and deep layer shear favorable for a few
strong/severe storms Thursday night with hail the main threat.
Fire weather may become a significant concern Friday afternoon
across parts of eastern OK as dry line expected to mix perhaps as
far east as AR border. Critical fire wx conditions likely to
occur west of the dry line during the afternoon with temps warming
into the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Cold front will push through by Saturday with cooler conditions
and breezy northwest winds. Next approaching upper level wave will
eventually bring moisture back north by late Sunday, with next
chance of thunderstorms likely holding off until Sunday night.
Severe weather threat is questionable at this point as true warm
sector air likely to remain to the south. Dry and cooler
conditions early next week behind this system.





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