499
FXUS64 KTSA 290925
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
425 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

   - Hot and humid conditions will continue for most of the next
     week with heat indices of 95-105 F across the area. Some
     minor relief may briefly occur on Tuesday and Wednesday.

   - Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms expected much
     of the next week with locally heavy rains, downburst winds,
     and lightning being the primary hazards. Monday will be the
     day of greatest storm coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible today across
parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, but most
places will see mostly sunny skies, with hot and humid conditions.
Afternoon heat index values will reach 100 to 105 degrees in many
places, but the current expectation is that any heat index values
above 105 degrees will remain isolated. Thus will not issue a heat
advisory at this time, but trends will be monitored throguh the
day. Afternoon high temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Shower and storm chances will be on the increase tonight across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a weak cold front
approaches from the north. Storm chances will spread south during
the day Monday, and it is possible that the greater storm coverage
may end up farther south than currently indicated by Monday
afternoon. Strong downburst winds and locally heavy rainfall will
be possible with the storms Monday.

Storm coverage will wane as the week goes on, but never entirely
disappear. Slightly drier air may make a brief intrusion into at
least northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday and
Wednesday before hot and humid conditions return for the rest of
the week. Afternoon heat index values from 95 to 105 degrees will
be common headed into the long holiday weekend next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Overnight tonight few to scattered high clouds are anticipated for
the CWA. There remains some isolated potential for patchy areas of
reduced visibility in far northwest Arkansas. At this time will
continue to hold off mentioning due to uncertainties with
development. During the day Sunday, scattered mid and high clouds
are again forecast across the majority of the CWA. Slight chance
of convection develops Sunday afternoon, though for now will keep
TAF sites dry. VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period.
Better signal for thunderstorm development arrives after 00Z as a
complex could move out of Kansas and affect NE OK and NW AR sites
during the evening. Have introduced Prob30 groups for this
scenario until better agreement in guidance emerges.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  76  91  72 /  20  30  50  30
FSM   95  76  93  73 /  10  10  60  40
MLC   93  76  91  71 /  10  10  50  40
BVO   93  72  90  67 /  20  50  60  30
FYV   91  72  90  68 /  30  20  60  40
BYV   91  72  91  69 /  40  30  60  30
MKO   93  74  91  72 /  10  20  60  40
MIO   92  72  89  67 /  30  50  60  30
F10   93  74  91  71 /  10  10  50  40
HHW   93  74  93  72 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04