Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 171049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
549 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

LIFR conditions this morning in a few locations due to patchy dense
fog. Visibilities have been up and down, but conditions should improve
by mid morning. Some patchy dense fog again possible tonight given
little change in the overall weather pattern.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018/

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in the far
northeast corner of the forecast area this morning in response to
the upper level disturbance slowly dropping southeastward from its
current location in northeastern Kansas. Most of the activity has
been just north and east of Carroll and Madison counties, although
a few thunderstorms have made their way farther southwest. Will
carry slight chance pops through mid morning, with coverage
fizzling thereafter. The chance is nonzero that additional showers
and thunderstorms could develop in this region this afternoon as
the disturbance moves closer to the area, but the thinking is
that most of this will be farther east than the current activity.
Temperatures today should be warmer across eastern Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas than the last couple of days.

Thunderstorms should develop well west of the area tonight in
response to a weakness in the building upper level ridge. This
activity will approach western sections of the forecast area
early Friday morning but should diminish before reaching eastern

Saturday still looks like the warmest and windiest day of the
next several. There may be a thunderstorm or two during the
early morning hours across northeast Oklahoma ahead of the slowly
approaching cold front, with any activity diminishing by sunrise
Saturday. Additional thunderstorms should accompany the front
Saturday night and Sunday morning, especially across parts of
northeast Oklahoma. Cooler temperatures will arrive Sunday as the
front moves through the area.

The weather pattern will remain active well into next week, as
periodic disturbances moving through the region, leading to
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
remain generally above normal during this time frame, as well, due
to the influence of mean ridging aloft.




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