Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 162317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
617 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period
at all area TAF sites. Isolated thunderstorms could impact the
northeast Oklahoma sites over the next couple of hours and
MVFR fog could affect the northwest Arkansas sites late Tonight
into Thursday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018/

MCV that has been driving convection across the area this
afternoon currently located across east central Oklahoma. Bulk of
activity east and northeast of this feature has been marginally
severe with heavy rainfall resulting in localized flooding.
Isolated activity back to the northwest, mainly along and
northwest of Interstate 44 has largely been struggling, likely
encountering an area of subsidence. Outflow boundary pushing
across northeast Oklahoma may generate additional isolated storms
late this afternoon or early evening in this area. Have opted to
use a pre first period given latest radar trends. Most activity
should be dissipated by early or mid evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Thunderstorm chances appear limited for the last
part of the work week as mid level ridging strengthens. Models
hint at some elevated convection overnight Thursday, but stays
west of the area as it dissipates Friday morning. A similar
situation may materialize again Late Friday night/ Saturday
morning, as the low level jet sets up a little further east.
Ongoing activity is again expected to dissipate during the
morning hours. Frontal boundary will approach for the latter half
of the weekend, with scattered storms anticipated in the vicinity
of the boundary. Weak west to southwest will be maintained over
the central conus for the first part of next week as a stronger
upper low moves onshore from the CA coast. Bits of mid level
energy likely to traverse the plains through this period, so will
maintain low chances for storms through the back half of the
forecast cycle. Stayed close to guidance temps throughout.




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