Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 131014
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
414 AM MDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Current upper level analysis has flattened ridge over Minnesota,
as the Pacific NW trough pushes eastward. Upper low is located
under the ridge across southeastern Colorado. Skies across the
Northern Plains are mostly clear, with some mid level clouds
across central WY and eastern MT. Surface low over southern
Manitoba has a weak cold front stretching back through central ND
and far western SD. Temperatures at 3am are in the 60s and 70s.

Aforementioned cold front will continue to move eastward through
the CWA today. Some weak showers/storms will be possible along
the front, mainly across northeastern WY and northwestern SD.
Highs today will be cooler across western areas, in the 80s. But
temperatures will still be very warm ahead of the front across
central SD, where highs will be well into the 90s. Behind the
front, winds will become north to northeasterly and increase to
around 15 to 20 mph at times across northwest and west central SD
through the afternoon.

Cooler air will continue to move into the area tonight as the cold
front finally pushes through south central SD by early Tuesday
morning. Low temperatures will be in the 50s to mid 60s.

A shortwave will bring better chances for precipitation to the
area on Tuesday, along with the coolest temperatures of the week
(highs in the 70s to lower 80s). Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday. Models are showing
another upper ridge building over the western states for the end
of the week, but both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement on
another shortwave breaking down this ridge by the weekend. Highs
for the latter half of the week will be in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1039 PM MDT Sun Aug 12 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although
some areas of smoke may lower the visibility to less than 10
miles at times. Winds will shift to the northwest tonight/Monday
as a cool front moves over the area. There is a chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...7


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