946
FXUS61 KCLE 022016
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
416 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Central Great Lakes will weaken overnight as
high pressure builds in from the west. A warm front will lift north
across the area late Monday. A cold front extending from low
pressure north of the Great Lakes will move east across the area
late Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Breaks in the clouds across NW Ohio have allowed a minimal amount of
instability to develop. Regional radars show scattered showers
filling back in ahead of and along the front. Left a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the forecast mainly west of a line
from Cleveland to Akron but chances of thunder are pretty low
given warming in the mid-levels and meager instability. ML CAPE
may reach as high as 500 J/kg early this evening though so a
slight chance remains. With that said, did raise pops slightly
and linger them into the evening an extra hour or two as several
12Z CAMs show these showers holding together to the east
through sunset.

Surface low pressure will be overcome by high pressure building
in from the west tonight. Winds will be very light or calm and
high boundary layer moisture with dewpoints near 60 degrees will
result in fog formation. Breaks developing in the clouds will
lead to cooling and fog or stratus filling in overnight. Models
are in good agreement that the coverage of fog will be pretty
good in areas from Mansfield to Akron to Youngstown that have
less opportunity to mix out early this evening. Dewpoints are
slightly lower behind the front in SW Lower Michigan but is
unclear if these will reach the area before winds drop off. A
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed overnight or early Monday
morning depending on the coverage and extent of the dense fog.

Fog will tend to lift on Monday morning with clouds scattering out
through the afternoon. A shortwave ridge will be overhead with a
capping inversion in place. Only concern for a brief shower might be
along the lake breeze, primarily in NW Pennsylvania where surface
convergence looks a little stronger during the early afternoon.
Included a 20 pop in this area but most of the day will be dry.
Southerly flow and warm advection will push temperatures into the
upper 70s(east) to low 80s(west) on Monday. Shortwave energy rounds
the ridge across the Upper Great Lakes on Monday night. Moisture
return is focused across Michigan along the warm front but low
levels do not seem to moisten enough in Ohio to need a pop for
Monday night. Lows temperatures trend upwards a few more degrees as
we head into a warm stretch for first half of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly quiet weather on Tuesday will become more active by Wednesday
as an upper-level trough moves east through the Great Lakes,
bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

An upper-level ridge will reside across the Eastern Great Lakes on
Tuesday which should largely keep precipitation chances at bay. Only
exception may be an isolated shower/storm associated with a lake
breeze Tuesday afternoon, though even this potential appears low
given dry mid-levels. Tuesday will feature the warmest temperatures
of the foreseeable future with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

An upper-level trough will slide east across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and is expected to weaken as it becomes cut-off from the
main jet energy. Nonetheless, favorable low-level moisture combined
with lift from the trough will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday. Mid-level flow of 25 to 30 knots (0-3
SRH ~100 m2/s2) could support some stronger storms/bowing segments
with primarily a wind threat, although we`re not looking at anything
too widespread or organized at this time given weak mid-level lapse
rates <6 C/km in addition to abundant cloud cover which should limit
the MLCAPE. Area soundings do favor a heavy rain threat with any
stronger storms given PWATs between 1.60 and 1.80 inches, skinny
CAPE profiles, and warm cloud depths >10kft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned upper-level low will become cut-off sometime
Wednesday night into Thursday as it slowly meanders across the
Eastern Great Lakes through much of the weekend, becoming trapped
within an upper-level "Omega Block" pattern. This will allow
multiple shortwave disturbances to impact the region through the
weekend, with the pattern resembling that more of early Spring
versus early Summer. The forecast in the long term will favor
slightly below-average temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
periodic rain showers with occasional thunderstorms during the day,
and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Light showers are exiting the area to the east while scattered
showers are filling back in along the cold front in NW Ohio from
roughly PCW to FDY. Given the lingering low level moisture and
weak instability expect showers to continue to fill in and move
southeast through early evening. Added a tempo for showers to
the forecast at FDY and MFD and may need to add to CAK if they
hold together and approach the terminal after 22Z. Any shower
could produce brief MVFR visibilities. Chances of thunder are
too low to include in the terminals but can not entirely rule an
isolated storm given the weak instability.

For tonight, low level moisture is expected to remain high with
very light winds. Breaks in the clouds are likely to widespread
IFR conditions with low stratus and fog. Fog could be dense,
especially in the window from 09-13Z. Terminals most likely to
experience dense fog are TOL/MFD/CAK/YNG. Light downsloping
winds may keep visibilities up closer to a half mile or a mile
at CLE/ERI. Ceilings should lift and visibilities improve
quickly on Monday morning between 13-15Z. Clouds will gradually
scatter out into afternoon.

South to southwest winds of 10 knots or less today will shift to
the west or northwest behind the front at TOL/FDY. The front
tends to weaken before making it farther east and winds are more
likely to go light and variable or calm after 01Z. Winds will
return out of the south on Monday morning.

Outlook...Thunderstorms and associated non-VFR possible at
times Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A mainly quiet marine period is in store through much of the week as
winds are expected to be less than 20 knots, favoring an offshore
direction. Some patchy fog may develop across the central and
eastern basins of the Lake tonight. A few stronger storms with
primarily a wind threat are possible on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as an upper-level trough swings east across the region. The
wind direction will become more westerly by Thursday and Friday,
around 15 knots, which could bring some 3 to perhaps 4-footers
across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Kahn