Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 311350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
950 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN MOVE
EAST TO THE VIRGINIA COAST BY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST OUT OF MAINE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA IS HIGH AND DRY TO START THE DAY. RIDGE IS STRONG OVERHEAD.
ONLY SURFACE FEATURE OF NOTE WOULD BE A LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INLAND
AND/OR A LITTLE LEFTOVER CONVERGENCE ACROSS MID STATE FROM
YESTERDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 PERCENT SHOWER/TS CHANCES INLAND.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING ON THE COOL SIDE ACROSS THE
WEST AND THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES THERE FOR
TODAY...MID/UPPER 80S. EVEN TOOK THE TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE WITH A WARM START...BUT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CAP THAT TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS TRENDED TOWARD A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TREND IS FOR THIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER IN LATE AUGUST AND A REPRIEVE FROM
WHAT APPEARED TO BE AN EARLY TASTE OF FALL LAST WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND KEEP FOR THE MOST PART A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
GOING. SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS SOME SMALL BITS OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SHOTS OF
MOISTURE. ONCE AGAIN...WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MINIMAL AT BEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...NOT SEEING ANY REAL AIR MASS CHANGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.  WILL GO OUT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP STORMS EACH AND EVERY
AFTERNOON.  SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.  LOT`S OF NOISE IN THE MODELS RIGHT
NOW SO HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL PAINT A CLEARER PICTURE.  A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. EXTREME HEAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT HIGHS WILL BE
A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  IT
APPEARS SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY AND MAY NEED TO
MENTION 90 AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG ISN`T AS BAD AS FEARED BUT THERE IS STILL SOME PATCHES OF
IFR IN THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. STILL
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD MIDDAY WITH BKN CIGS FROM
TIME TO TIME THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. A FEW POP UPS ARE LIKELY
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO
NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW IS
LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT KERI AND KCLE.


OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY
MORNING FOG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE ERIE ALL WEEK.  THE
GRADIENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW OR W.  SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS SO ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST GRADIENT DEVELOPING.  AGAIN
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  NOT ANTICIPATING ON NEEDING
ANY HEADLINES THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA



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