Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291634
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1234 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front near the Ohio Valley will move north across the
area late tonight and Sunday morning. Deepening low pressure
over the plains will move north to Wisconsin Monday and Ontario
on Tuesday. The associated cold front will move across the
local area on Monday. Cooler and blustery weather will spread
across the area behind the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
One more try to get the temperatures better for the afternoon
update. Used the current temperatures and blended them mostly
with the HRRR to get the hourly/max temperature forecast for
this afternoon. No other significant changes for the afternoon
forecast.

Morning updated discussion...
Wave on the front will continue to spread rain and embedded
thunderstorms across the area late this morning into the early
afternoon with lesser amounts of rain farther north. Mentioned
fog along the Lake Erie lakeshore since dew points are high
relative to the lake temp. The majority of the showers should
taper off mid afternoon as the wave moves east. The temperatures
gradient is tight with upper 40s and lower 50s along the
immediate lakeshore gradually warming as one heads south with
60s from around Mount Vernon south. Temps will not recover much
with the north wind this afternoon although we cloud drift up a
few degrees when the rain ends. Tried to adjust the hourly
forecast temperatures and the high temperature to capture the
tight gradient as best as I could. No other changes for the late
morning update.

Original "Today" discussion...
Tough forecast today with precip timing and coverage a real
challenge. Had hoped to find some windows of dry weather today
but that will be tough to do. Southern areas especially will see
good chances for more showers with embedded thunder as the
surface warm front remains near the I-70 corridor. All of the
guidance shows another wave of precipitation developing along
the front well southwest of here by daybreak. This blob for lack
of a better term should then slide east across the local area
this morning. There could be a sharp cutoff of the precip on the
north side but not confident enough to forecast that. Will end
up with likely or higher pops all areas today. The warm front
will try to edge it`s way north into the area by late today.
This will result in a fairly substantial temperature gradient
across the area. Have stayed fairly close to guidance. Northeast
flow off of the lake will result in a chilly day across the
immediate lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front will advance north across the area tonight and by
daybreak Sunday it should be gone. It will take precip chances
with as it goes. Will need to leave a mention in all areas this
evening but will begin to dry things out from the south late
tonight. Most of the day Sunday should be dry. Have left some 20
pops in much of the area for coordination purposes but would
really be surprised to see any precip except across NW OH later
in the day. The clouds should also thin some during the day with
partial sunshine likely...especially in the south. 850 mb temps
will get to plus 17 much of the area so highs well into the 80s
seem reasonable. Precip chances will increase from west to east
Sunday as the cold front from the low off to the NW advances
across the area. Not sure how far east this precip will get by
daybreak Monday but at least the western half of the area will
see precip tomorrow night. Even in the far east chances are
worth a mention prior to 12z Mon. The surface cold front should
be near I-75 at daybreak and will move into western PA around
21z. Showers are likely till the front crosses the area. By
daybreak Tuesday 850 mb temps will be back below zero Celsius
so there is going to be a dramatic airmass change. Instability
showers are likely Monday night all areas and downwind of the
lake Tuesday into Tuesday night. Given the changing airmasses
during the period have stayed close to guidance temps which are
in decent agreement.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Period will be characterized by below to near normal temps as broad
eastern CONUS trough will hold in place late next week. Deepening
wave will eject and close off from the southern Plains through the
eastern CONUS. Models still vary quite a bit with cutoff upper
low/surface low development and track, as well as temperature
profile. Generally kept pops and temps similar to previous forecast,
however did bump pops up to likely along and south of an Upper
Sandusky to Meadville PA line as converging model solutions yield
higher confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Quasi-stationary boundary lingering across the region will
affect be a focus for low ceilings and showers through the first
half of the TAF period. Lower confidence with respect to timing
of precip and ceiling heights. Most of the precip potential will
be from around 14Z through 21Z or so as a low moves along this
front. Some embedded thunder is possible, especially at KMFD
and KCAK, but not enough confidence to include in TAF based on
observational trends. Lower ceilings may linger along the
boundary through the day and tonight, with some improvement
possible for a short time this evening north near Lake Erie.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR and scattered showers possible Monday through
Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front will sink south across Lake Erie early this morning.
Winds will pick up out of the north to around 10-15 knots this
afternoon across the western half of the lake. Winds will back
northeasterly tonight into early Sunday as low pressure deepens and
approaches the lake from the southwest. Winds may reach 20-25 kts
but gales are not expected. The low will force a warm front north
across the lake Sunday with winds backing southerly and eventually
southwesterly by Monday afternoon as a cold front through. Gales are
possible across the lake on Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday
     for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Greenawalt


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