Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 160825
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
325 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front just southeast of the area will continue to move
away from the region as high pressure builds across the region
today and tonight. Low pressure will develop and track northeast
through the Tennessee and Ohio valleys Saturday afternoon,
moving off the east coast by late Saturday night as a separate
trough swings east through the Great Lakes. High pressure will
briefly return to the region on Sunday before another low
pressure system develops across the Plains and moves into the
Great Lakes Monday and Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rain showers will continue across the southern half of the area
through mid morning as a cold front continues to push south of
the area. With active areal and river flood warnings and an
areal flood advisory in effect, will keep the flood watch going
at least until the rain moves out of the area, which looks to be
around 12Z. Cold air is lagging pretty far behind the precip,
so any changeover to/mix with snow likely wouldn`t occur until
after 12Z. Hi-res guidance hints at a brief window of lake
effect snow late this morning into early this afternoon, with
just a brief couple hour period where enough moisture still
lingers over the lake while conditions become marginally
unstable with CAA over the lake. Much of the lake is still
likely frozen, however any openings could allow for some light
lake effect bands to persist inland, as well as some enhanced
moisture off of Lake Huron. Nevertheless, went with a few hours
of slight chance/chance snow showers across the snow belt,
although not expecting anything in the way of accumulation aside
from the higher terrain of NW PA, where a few tenths cannot be
ruled out. Temperatures will generally remain at or fall to the
low 30s through the day. Any threat for lake effect snow should
end by this evening as high pressure builds in, with lows
tonight in the mid teens across NW PA to the low 20s elsewhere.

The first half of Saturday will be quiet as high pressure
departs east out of the area. Attention turns to developing low
pressure that will track through the Tennessee and Ohio valleys
along with northern stream wave tracking east through the Great
Lakes Saturday afternoon. Models are struggling with the phasing
of these two systems, however there seems to be a decent
consensus of some snow arriving across the far southern part of
the forecast area by late Saturday afternoon. Kept close to the
previous forecast due to lower confidence, with some chance pops
arriving around and after 20Z south. Not anticipating any
accumulation before 00Z, with temperatures expected to rise into
the mid/upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The short term begins Saturday night with three models yielding
three different solutions with the moisture. All show a weak
upper wave moving toward the area from the upper midwest and
southern stream moisture being pulled north into the Ohio
Valley. The ECMWF is wettest while the GFS holds dry air in
across much of the area with deep moisture remaining just south
of the area. Have split the difference keeping highest pops
south and southeast through the evening in the likely category
and chance pops elsewhere. After midnight only kept chance pops
in nwrn PA as moisture moves northeast of the area. Sunday and
much of Sunday night should be dry with high pressure over the
area. Moisture does return late and have chance pops late.
Mainly rain but could see a rain/snow mix northeast. Monday
through Tuesday should be wet as deep moisture out of the GLFMX
spread north across the OH Vly ahead of low pressure and a cold
front to our west. Flooding may be an issue and will need to
monitor. Temps above normal with 60s expected Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday night through Wednesday continue to look wet with the cold
front slowly dropping through the area.  Behind the front things
should dry out starting Wednesday afternoon northwest but until then
rain is expected. Dry Wednesday night through Thursday night with
high pressure across the area. Friday both the GFS and ECMWF show
weak low pressure moving through the OH Vly.  Will have chance pops
for rain although if the ECMWf is correct this should miss us to the
south.  Temps still above normal in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Cold front just southeast of the terminals will continue to push
away from the region, with continued rain shower activity over
the next couple of hours. A brief lull in IFR/MVFR early for
many of the terminals, but expecting a period of ceilings
lowering to low MVFR/IFR through the morning as colder air works
into the area. Could see some precip switch to snow, most
likely at KERI. Conditions will gradually improve through the
period. Winds will remain out of the northwest through the
period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday night into Sunday and again
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Expecting northwest flow today around 15 to 20 knots behind a cold
front and ahead of a tightening gradient with high pressure building
in from the west. Tonight northwest flow will diminish with the
gradient as the high builds across the lake. Saturday look for light
south flow to turn southwest at 5 to 15 knots Saturday night and
Sunday as the high moves to our east and another high builds in
across the OH Vly. Sunday night into Monday low pressure will move
from the central plains into the central lakes. Expect south flow
under 10 knots to increase to around 15 knots Monday as the low
reaches Lake Michigan. Flow will turn southwest and increase to 15
to 20 knots Monday night and Tuesday as the trough lingers in
through the central lakes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ020>023-
     029>033-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...TK



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