Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 281436
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1036 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Low pressure will track east across the northern Great Lakes into
Ontario today dragging a cold front across the region. The front
will stall across Southern Ohio on Monday. High pressure will
build across the lower Great Lakes from the north on Monday and
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure is located just south of James Bay with a cold front
extending across central lower Michigan. The front is slightly
hard to pick out with the light wind field in place across the
region but was near a Saginaw to Grand Rapids line at 14Z.
Dewpoints ahead of the front are in the lower 70s with even some
mid and upper 70 dewpoints in place across west central Ohio. A
band of clouds can be seen on satellite imagery ahead of the front
and expect this to be where convection initiates early this
afternoon. Raised pops a little more for the Toledo and northwest
Ohio areas. The other area to watch for thunderstorms to develop
will be in northeast/north central Ohio as the lake breeze pushes
inland this afternoon. Upper level support will pass to the north
today with a broad ridge with warm mid-levels still in place
across the southeastern states. The warm air and weak flow aloft
to the south should limit storm strength this afternoon. Instability
will still be sufficient for scattered coverage of storms except
more isolated coverage along the northeast lakeshore. Raised
temperatures 2-3 degrees for all areas with plenty of sun expected
into early afternoon.
Original...Will continue with chance pops for thunderstorms
today...mainly this afternoon. Low pressure moving east across the
northern lakes will drag a cold front across the region late this
afternoon/early evening. Only weak forcing across the area with
the upper ridge axis just to our south over the lower Ohio Valley
but with the airmass continuing very moist with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to near 70...main concern is for the development of
convection along and ahead of the front. Highs mid and upper 80s.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight expect a few ongoing thunderstorms at 00z but high
pressure and dry air will build in after 06z from the north. Will
have chance pops mainly east half to start but will tapper through
the evening. Monday and monday night will be dry as high pressure
overspreads the area. Wednesday should be dry for most as well
however models bring another cold front across the area during the
day. The GFS is drier than the NAM and for its own part than NAM
is not all that moist either. For now will just have slight chance
pops in place for the day which will not make it into the zones.
Wednesday night 850mb temps drop to around 6c on the GFS over
NERN Ohio and NWRN PA. This would be low enough to spark lake
effect showers but the fetch will be short as winds will be from
the north. Also the airmass dries significantly by then. For now
will have a slight chance pop far northeast...otherwise dry. Temps
a few degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday and near normal
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be spreading se over the area thu into fri then
slowly shifting off to the east sat. Dry and cooler air is shown
over the region thru the period so expect conditions to stay dry
allowing the drought affecting much of the area to worsen.
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Daytime heating this morning will dissipate the fog and stratus by
Sct tsra will be developing late this morning and afternoon as a
weak frontal boundary/trough axis moves se across the region. This
will shift southwesterly winds to the northwest during the
afternoon. Winds should turn quick enough at cle and eri due to lake
breeze enhancement so tsra development should be further to the
south of these sites.
The threat for convection will gradually taper off from north to
south the first half of tonight. Light winds should lead to more fog
development late tonight.
OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR thru Thursday.
A weak cold front drifting se across the lake today will mean little
more than a wind shift from sw to nw that veers to ne tonight with
an increase in speed to about 10 to 15 knots. Winds diminish again
for mon night and remain light and changeable until wed morning when
a more pronounced cold front pushes se across the lake. Winds will
increase from the nw then north to 10 to 20 knots wed into wed night
which look to create 2 to 4 foot waves for a while until winds start
to diminish late thu night.