Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 231554
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1154 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016
A stationary front over the area will begin to move south as a
cold front today. High pressure from the upper midwest will slide
across the lower Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. A cold front
will reach the area by Sunday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Increased chance to likely in a corridor across the
northeast for the afternoon to cover the light rain. Also adjusted
Original...Not real clear on just how much new thunderstorm
activity might develop today, especially across the southern
counties. The heavier rain occurred at Hancock, Marion, Morrow,
and Knox Counties last night and extended the flood watch there
until 4 PM. Canceled the flood watch for the other counties since
there was not much rain last night and any additional heavy rain
should be localized. No other changes for the early morning update
except to reduce the chance of showers early this morning across
extreme northeast Ohio and northwest PA.
Original "Today" discussion...
The thunderstorm complex is heading south of the area. The
heaviest showers and storms will be south of the area by 12Z and
will cancel the flood watch with the next forecast issuance, about
630 AM. The prime question for today is where the front ends up?
Concerned that low pressure will linger over the midwest and that
the boundary winds come back around from the south or southeast
and that the front ends over the forecast area south of Lake Erie.
This opens the door for new thunderstorm development. Also, a
northern branch short wave will drop across the Great Lakes late
today. Will keep at least a low pop chance of thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rain is still a possibility but given the lower
level of confidence about the likelihood and coverage of any new
storms, will just wait to see how things develop. Perhaps a new
flood watch will need to be issued. The far southwest counties,
Hancock and Marion, have had the most rain and would be most
vulnerable. Somewhat cooler today, especially near Lake Erie with
the north flow.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering convection should move south of the forecast area this
evening, then high pressure will build south across the lower Great
Lakes. Some of the models continue to post QPF on Friday but given
the drier and stable air mass, will not have any mention of
showers on Friday. The surface high will slide east on Saturday
and with the ridge aloft building in, expect temperatures to
rebound into the 80s Saturday and near 90 Sunday. The next cold
front will approach late Sunday and will continue to mention
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. May need to bump
pops up to "likely" at some point but will keep things as a
"chance" for time being since we are still 4 days out.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will sweep east across the area Sunday night and most
of the precipitation associated with the front should be east of the
area for Monday. However, a secondary cold front will slide
southeast across the area Monday night and for the most part appears
it will be dry. Latest European model suggests a slug of moisture
will push east into the area with the second front and bring a
slight chance of rain. Since timing and moisture depth appear to be
in question will leave it dry for Monday night. A trough of low
pressure will slide southeast across the area in the wake of low
pressure system Wednesday and bring with it some moisture and the
threat for showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern portions
of the forecast area. Otherwise, the rest of the area should remain
dry. High pressure will build east across the area for weeks end and
fair weather will be the rule.
Warm air advection will take place through the first half of the
forecast period ahead of the cold fronts. Once the secondary
reinforcing cold front arrives, cooler air will persist through the
latter half of the extended periods.
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A warm front lies southwest to northeast across the forecast area
at this time. The showers and thunderstorms that occurred earlier
are expected to continue to push southeast as low pressure moves
southeast across the southern half of the forecast area this
morning and afternoon. Eventually, the activity will move
southeast of the area and return the forecast area back to VFR
fair weather but not until later this evening. Another shot of
moisture and possible showers will slide into the area early this
afternoon. Not expecting much from this activity since it is
minimal chance. Winds will gradually shift around from a
southerly component to a northeast direction through the day and
back to a more southeasterly direction tonight.
Outlook...Areas of non-VFR expected to return late Sunday or
Low pressure will move east of the area today setting up a
northeasterly flow across the lake. Borderline small craft advisory
conditions will develop today and likely persist into Friday
morning. Otherwise, light and variable winds will develop late Friday
and continue through Sunday. Winds do increase a tad Monday out of
the south to southwest but at this time not expecting any headlines