Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 310113
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
913 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO AND
SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST UPDATE.  TWEAKED TIMING OF PRECIP
SLIGHTLY...TIMED INTO TOL AREA AROUND 3Z BUT NOT INTO SNOWBELT TIL
TOWARD 6Z. STILL EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN EXCEPT FOR EXTREME
NE OH/NW PA. STILL THINK 2-3 INCHES SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT IS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF THE SNOW.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY RAIN
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EXPECTING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NO ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST AND MID 30S CENTRAL AND LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING IN THE FORM
OF SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. TOTAL STORM
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CLOSE TO 5 INCHES IN
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER OHIO. HOLDING OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE BAND OF SNOW.

PRECIPITATION PULLS OUT TO THE EAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
A RETURN BACK TO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. DECIDED TO GO WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S EVERY
WHERE BUT CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE 70 DEGREE MARK WILL
BE REACHED ON THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BEST POSSIBILITY WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
INCREASING DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S THURSDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY...WILL ADD A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STALL
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER OVER THE REGION UNSETTLED INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY BUT SUSPECT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED LIKELY
OR HIGHER WORDING.  TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A SWITCH TO SNOW
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND ENDING THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP.  BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING AND
SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.  MONDAY
WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE BOTH FRIDAY AND MONDAY BUT BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN OHIO EARLY
TUE MORNING THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN PA LATER TUE MORNING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW...NEAR LAKE ERIE AND POINTS NORTH. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA CAN EXPECT SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE SNOW.
ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR WITH PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DURING THE RAIN SHOWERS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN NORTH NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE LOW. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LINGERING AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE FLOW WILL
BECOME N TO NW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RESULTING LIGHT FLOW.  INCREASING SW
FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FLOW
RETURNING TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.  WINDS AGAIN WILL LIGHT BEHIND
THIS FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A
WAVE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT.  THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER GOING INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY
WIN OUT ON SATURDAY.

TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP THIS WEEK AND CONTINUED DETERIORATION
IS EXPECTED ON THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS.  MUCH OF THE WESTERN BASIN
IS ICE FREE WITH THE NEARSHORE WATERS MAINLY ICE FREE AS FAR EAST AS
CLEVELAND. BECAUSE OF THAT WILL START PUTTING A MENTION OF WAVES
BACK IN WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA






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