Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
738 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DID END UP FILLING IN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER LAKE ERIE AND CONCERNS FOR WATERSPOUTS CONTINUE.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR ASHTABULA AND ERIE COUNTIES WHERE SHOWERS ARE
PUSHING INLAND FROM THIS BAND. EXPECTING THE BAND TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE SHORELINE BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTING THE HEAVIER RAIN TO REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY THIS
MORNING THEN SPREADING EAST. REFINED POPS A TOUCH BASED ON THIS
IDEA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY. THE NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z...PROVIDING A
FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY
RESIDES FROM EASTERN LAKE HURON TO INDIANA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
UNTIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING THE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE
FAVORED REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 10K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE AND EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO TEND TO PULSE UP AND BE SHORT LIVED...KEEPING
MOST OF THE HAIL SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH
HAIL APPROACHING AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES
MOST AREAS TODAY INTO THE 70-75 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE OHIO COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE A RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AT THE SURFACE SO LOWERED
POPS. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR WHATEVER MAY MOVE IN OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN NW OHIO TO LOW 70S IN NW PA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE BEST IN NW OHIO ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE OHIO. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST WEEK SHOULD FINALLY
START TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY WINS OUT.  THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS MEANS MORE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE
MORNING. KERI MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SHOWERS AT KCLE AND KYNG. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TOWARD MIDDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING
PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
BUT STILL THINK SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIP. THINK
CIGS WILL REMAIN EXCEPT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINGS SHOULD DRY
OUT AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. SW TO W FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE FIRST IS DEPARTING NOW AND A SECOND WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.  A THIRD WILL IMPACT THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
EACH ONE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS A FEW
WATERSPOUTS TO THE LAKE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND EACH TROUGH.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. &&

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






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