Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 162207

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
607 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A large area of high pressure will expand east across the area
tonight then set up over the southern Appalachians for the
remainder of the week. An upper level ridge will strengthen
aloft heading into next weekend with another round of above
normal temperatures.


No changes for the 630 update. Thick cloud cover in the west
appears to be diurnal in nature and is beginning to erode. Might
be enough to keep frost from developing overnight.

Original discussion...
High pressure will increase its influence across the area
tonight. Dry air continues to settle over the region. So as
skies clear and winds become light the potential for frost will
exist. It currently appears that winds will be the lightest
across the south and east so only have the advisory for that
region. Patchy frost will be possible outside the advisory area.

High pressure remain in control on Tuesday but will be nudged
southward as some jet energy moves across central Ontario.
Other than increasing the winds slightly we expect no other
significant impacts.

Lows tonight near 40 NW Ohio and along the lakeshore, mid to
lower 30s for inland locations. Warmer Tuesday with highs
ranging from the upper 50s inland NW PA to the upper 60s across
NW Ohio. Slightly warmer Tuesday night with lows ranging from
the upper 30s to upper 40s.


Surface high pressure will be in control through the short term. A
weak short-wave trough will traverse across the moisture-stricken
region Wednesday, which will help to keep southwesterly winds around
10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. An upper level ridge begins to build
over the region Thursday and Friday, which will result in light
winds and continued sunny skies. High temperatures will be around 10
degrees above normal by Friday.


The ridge aloft is progged to move east by early next week as a
progressive trough and cold front push across the country. The ECMWF
throws a wrench into long term forecast by cutting off the deep
trough over the south central states and leaving a split flow with
the front strung out to the northwest of the area. Not sure if this
will happen and not sure that a weakening front till won`t cross the
area sometime Sunday night into Monday. The forecast will be close
to the blended guidance but will keep the forecast pops a little
below the guidance in the "chance" range given the uncertainty.

Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm (highs in the 70s) until
the front arrives and even then it looks like it will take a
reinforcing short wave (Tuesday next week?) to bring seasonably cool
air back to the area.


.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Still some MVFR ceilings across the region as the cloud cover
flows off the lake. Most of the MVFR ceilings will be across NE
OH/NW PA. Expect most locations will be VFR overnight. North to
northwest winds will decrease through the afternoon, becoming
light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in morning fog for inland locations Wednesday
and Thursday.


Light northwest winds this evening will become southerly overnight.
Southwest winds will increase Tuesday, which should be strong enough
for a Small Craft Advisory at the east end of the lake. Winds become
a little more southerly Tuesday night into Wednesday and weaken
considerably. South to southwest winds will continue through Friday,
generally less than 10 knots.


OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ013-014-
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ002-003.


NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Kosarik
MARINE...Mottice is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.