Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201353
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SERVE TO SHARPEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AS WELL AS IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PRECIP HOWEVER
IS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. EXPECTING THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEST HALF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY WEST. AS
DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EAST
MID/LATE AFTERNOON SO BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT. REMAINED CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. NO CHANGES WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT
SEEMINGLY BECOMES TRAPPED JUST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE SHORT TERM. ON BALANCE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST.
REALLY DRY AIR GETS INTO NWRN OHIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL BE
DRY AFTER THAT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH
AT LEAST A CHANCE REMAINING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN NWRN
PA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRI BUT HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHRA HANGING AROUND
ERI THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. TEMPS MODERATE SOME ON FRI
AS MORE SUNSHINE STARTS TO OCCUR AND THE NORTH WINDS BACK TO WEST.

THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NE PART OF THE CWA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA WITH THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND LET LINGER IN THE FAR NE SUN MORNING. TEMPS ON SAT
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
COOL OFF SOME FOR SUN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MIDDAY WHILE SW FLOW INCREASES TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SCT LIGHT SHRA
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED CIGS OR VSBYS. BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z SHRA WILL BE DEVELOPING
FROM NW TO SE WHILE CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LOWERING TO
MVFR. IFR CIGS PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP AS THE COOLER AIR STARTS TO
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM CLE TO MFD EASTWARD WHERE THE
RAIN WILL TEND TO PERSIST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY IN -SHRA MAINLY CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING WILL STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS
WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO KEEP 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS TURN WEST THEN NW AND
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS INTO TUE SO EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY CONTINUE THRU WED WHILE WINDS
TURN MORE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LAKE WED NIGHT THRU FRI
LEADING TO SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRI EVE SO WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST FRI.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






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