Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 231910
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
310 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will move slowly east to the central
Appalachian Mountains by Wednesday morning.  A weak cold front will
move south across Lake Erie and become nearly stationary Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday evening.  The front will lift back north as
a warm front late Wednesday night. A ridge of high pressure will
extend west from the Atlantic Ocean into the local area by the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will dominate the area overnight allowing for a bit of
radiational cooling to take place. Night times are getting shorter
with time so this helps to limit the drop in overnight lows across
the area. As high shifts slightly east, flow becomes light southerly
and this will keep temperatures from cratering into the 40s.
Expecting overnight lows to be in the lower to middle 50s.  Some
localized upper 40s possible in the hilly areas in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upper level ridge will build east across the area setting up
some subsidence.  Surface high pressure will shift a bit further
east supporting low level warm air advection during the day Tuesday
through Thursday.  Little change in the overall pattern is expected
through this forecast period.

A weak cold front will slide south across Lake Erie where it will
become nearly stationary.  The front will then lift back north as a
warm front.

There are some differences in all of the models regarding moisture.
The NAM appears to be the wettest while the GFS and European are the
drier two models; especially Wednesday into Wednesday night.  So,
rather that drop POPs all together, will shade them back a few
percent and only go with a chance POPs Wednesday through Thursday
night.

As mentioned above, temperatures will be on the increase through
this forecast period with highs by Wednesday and Thursday climbing
well into the 80s and lows remaining in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
It looks like the period will be unsettled as a warm and humid
airmass gets established over the region.  Have been unable to find
a dry period but the forecast will sound much worse that it will
actually be.  Hit and miss storms are expected throughout the
holiday weekend but certainly not expecting any washout days. The
models are having trouble pinpointing the impulses that will kick
off the convection.  Because of the timing difficulties and
convective feedback in the models will just go ahead with generic
chance pops most of the period. Suspect guidance temps may be a
little cool...especially for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Locations southeast of a MFD to YNG line will see some diurnal
cumulus this afternoon otherwise skies will remain clear. Onshore
flow is expected at CLE and ERI this afternoon with light and
variable flow elsewhere.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds will continue with onshore flowing developing near the
shoreline the next few days.  Rain chances will gradually ramp up
the second half of the week as the lake gets under the upper ridge.
A warm and humid airmass will get set up in time for the holiday
weekend.  The pressure gradient calls for mainly south to southwest
winds under 15 knots the entire period.  No small craft headlines
are anticipated.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina


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