Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 042318
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
718 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN SWATH OF RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...THAT MOVES ACROSS
MAHONING COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER
STABLE WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF THUNDER. SO AT THIS POINT WE WILL
REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION FROM THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM JUST EAST OF TOL TO EAST OF MNN. INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH
ONLY 100-250 J/KG OF CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE REGION THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM
AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE BAND WILL BACK AND ALIGNED FROM NEAR
TOL TO CAK WITH FURTHER PIVOTING IN A BACKING DIRECTION AS THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS EVENT SO .25 TO .50 INCH
OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ORIENTED
FROM TOL TO CAK WITH LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR ERI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW NOW
CENTERED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN...MOVES SE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR.
VARIABLE WINDS AS LOW MOVES ACROSS AREA...WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN


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