Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 220143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO
FRIDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY THEN A LOW WILL MOVE INTO
OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING. NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE NIGHT SETTING UP FOR A WARM
DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER RIDGING TUE TO KEEP CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND 90 IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE EAST.

TUE NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE CHALLENGING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE INTO THE LAKES. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TUE NIGHT BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WED INTO WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ONLY LOOK GOOD
ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORMS WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HERE
AND THERE.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT MAY BE PRESENT FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE SE THU...OTHERWISE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE SPREADING
SE INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE ARE THU NIGHT
WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE
EAST ON SATURDAY. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS IT WAS LAST WEEK. THE
850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL GET DOWN TO 10C...WHILE LAST WEEK IT GOT
DOWN TO 5C.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LAST INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER...THE 00Z
ECMWF TRIES TO MOVE THE UPPER TROF EAST OF THE AREA AND THEN
RETROGRADES IT. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR A PERIOD OF BR WITH 4-5
MILE VISIBILITY THAT COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS. THE RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE 10-13Z
WINDOW. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCT
CU NEAR 4-5K FEET.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME
LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE. A LAND BREEZE IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CLEVELAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY
STRONG. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS
COULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE LAKE ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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