Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCLE 261754
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE EXCEPT OVER INTERIOR NW PA WHERE A
HEALTHY CU DECK HAS DEVELOPED. ALTHOUGH SKIES MAY BRIEFLY GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THAT AREA...DRIER AIR REMAINS ALOFT SO SHOULD NOT
THICKEN MUCH MORE UNTIL THE MOISTURE SEEN NORTH OF LAKE ERIE
ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER CU FORMATION AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY START TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH
BY THE END OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST UPPER S/W THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS OFF OF LERI WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS RAW WITH HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 50
WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER S/W`S ROTATING AROUND THE
POLAR VORTEX AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCT
SHRA SHOULD GET MORE NUMEROUS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO WHETHER TEMPS WILL GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
VERSUS RAIN. SINCE THE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND GROUND
TEMPS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING...DON`T SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS IF ANY ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR.
ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE SO LITTLE CHANGES.

THE PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE MON THEN GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN THRU
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PULLS FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR.
DAYTIME HEATING ON MON SHOULD CHANGE ANY SNOW TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON
THEN THE AIRMASS WARMS A FEW DEGREES ALOFT SO EVEN WITH SURFACE
COOLING MON NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY AS RAIN OR
MOSTLY RAIN WHILE SURFACE TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING. AFTER ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY ON MON...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SOME ON TUE BUT
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

ON WED...A REINFORCING PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY THRU BUT BY WED NIGHT THE
SHRA SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO REGION DROPPING
SOUTHEAST. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS MUCH DEEPER.  BOTH MODELS AGREE ON SUFFICIENT MOISTURE HOWEVER
FOR CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SITUATION BEGINS TO
IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND BOTH A SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BEGIN MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. MODELS REALLY FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE HOWEVER BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION BEING CENTERED OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY SATURDAY MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN WITH THE GFS
SHOWING AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN AS WELL. THE ECMWF HOWEVER SHOWS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER GA WITH A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF
HOWEVER ALSO SHOWS A SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA.  WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE DAY GIVEN THE MOISTURE ON
BOTH MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERLY FLOW. A WEST TO EAST UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND DURING PART OF MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT. SOME QUESTION WHETHER SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ON
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME DID NOT FORECAST ANY...IF IT DID OCCUR IT
WOULD BE MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER
NW OH AND NW PA TONIGHT. A STRONG VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH NW OH
TONIGHT AND THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
LAKE MAKING FOR A CHOPPY SOUTHERN NEARSHORE.  AT THIS TIME HOWEVER
AM THINKING WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES
TO DROP OFF. THURSDAY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL POSSIBLY ELEVATE WAVE HEIGHTS TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. FOR NOW HOWEVER...NO HEADLINES FOR THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.