Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
119 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND ARE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A FEW VALLEYS IN EXTREME EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES WHERE THEY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SOON. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON MOISTURE
PROFILES THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK/LULL THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BACK
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WILL BEGIN WITH
CHANCE POPS AND INCREASE TO LIKELY NORTH HALF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS TIMING OF MODELS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS MILD TO
SEASONAL TO START BUT DROP BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN CANADA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE ON THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OR LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AS WARM FRONT MOVE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND ALL TAF SITES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT STRATUS DECK TO HOVER IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF MVFR BR. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING PRECIP
TOMORROW.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH
TODAY TO SUBSTANTIATE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUNDAY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND BACKS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OFF OF ERIE PA
WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 35 KNOT GALES AT A MINIMUM.  THE
LOW AND A LINGERING TROUGH PULL AWAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN





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