Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201734
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM
OKLAHOMA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE STRATOCUMULUS IS SLOW IN CLEARING.
CONCERNED THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND SLOW TO DEVELOP. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD TOO. LOWERED HIGHS FOR TODAY.
EXTENDED CLOUD COVER HAS PROHIBITED MUCH RISE. WILL GO WITH MID
50S AT MOST WITH UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 AT THE LAKESHORE.

A SPRINKLE MAY SNEAK INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR TOWARD EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND BETTER UPWARD MOTION ARRIVES. THE SHOWERS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME OVER COMING THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COULD CLIP THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND BOWLING GREEN TO BUCYRUS AND MOUNT
VERNON EARLY TONIGHT BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AS THE
UPPER LOW SHEARS AS IT MOVES EAST. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO THE LOWER/MID 40S EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA. A TOUCH OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ERIE AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES PA.

NOT SURE HOW MANY CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. I SUSPECT THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND THERE MAY
BE SOME CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT
CLOUDY. PARTLY CLOUDY IS PROBABLY THE BEST FORECAST. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON
FRIDAY. NOT MUCH JET SUPPORT ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN IN THE TROUGH ALOFT.
DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.
THE AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE
EFFECT. THERE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH
UPWARD MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE SNOWBELT
BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH A POP AROUND 10
PERCENT. DRY OTHERWISE INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR FROST IN THE COLDER SPOTS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. AFTER A CHILLY
START...HIGHS ON SATURDAY RECOVERING BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TRANSLATES TO A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST TO THE EAST COAST
IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. AS HIGH MOVES EAST...CONVEYOR BELT OF
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HEAD RIGHT FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SERIES OF POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL
ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

OTHER FACTOR WILL BE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD
MOVING HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR IF
CLOUDS REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
FROM KMFD TO KCAK TO KYNG. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO AT THESE LOCATIONS
AS WE AWAIT THE DISSIPATION OF THE LOWER CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNSET BUT SHOULD SLOWLY
DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FOR THE KFDY
AND KMFD AREAS. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO LOW END VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
IF THE LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING
AN INCREASE IN THE WIND FLOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT FORCING WAVES TO
BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. MAY NEED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
WAVES SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY BY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...LAKE REMAINS
RATHER QUIET GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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