Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 181118
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
618 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND AREA BUT NOT MUCH MORE NOW. FOR
UPDATE TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE
LAKE SHORE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IS NOW INTO CENTRAL PA. AS A RESULT UNDER SOME SUBSIDENCE AND SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED TO A FEW FLURRIES. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
COLD AIR AND SOME ADDED MOISTURE IS ROTATING INTO THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK AND THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...LESS THAN 2 HOURS MAY OCCUR AT A FEW SPOTS.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT TO VFR FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA





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