Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 121721
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
121 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the upper midwest will move over the area Sunday
and remain in place into Wednesday before moving off to the east for
Thursday. A cold front should push east into the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Afternoon highs will be coming in a few degrees below seasonal
normals with most areas topping off in the upper 70s. There will
be a few hit or miss showers mainly in the northeast counties
where some convergence is taking place. A strong inversion
around 700mb will prevent any notable development so have kept
thunder out of the forecast. Wrap around moisture moving across
Michigan right now is triggering some diurnally driven
convection. At this time have kept rain chances out of NW OH
with the expectation that the limited moisture and timing won`t
favor development in the local area. Tonight attention turns to
the potential for fog as skies clear out and boundary layer
decouples. There should be enough residual moisture and cooling
overnight to favor at least patchy fog depending on any residual
clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Nearly zonal flow will persist across the lower 48 states through
this forecast period.  We should see some amplification of the upper
level ridge over the western United States early next week.  This
upper level ridge will begin to advance east toward the forecast
area for the middle of the week.

Surface high pressure will be the dominating weather feature during
this forecast period and it is expected to move east of the area by
Monday morning.  A return to some warm air advection on the west
side of the high pressure will begin to take place Tuesday and
Tuesday night.  Will keep forecast dry through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridge really begins to amplify during the latter part of
the week as it moves over the forecast area.  Once it moves east,
allowing a broad upper level trough to move in, surface low pressure
system in response to the upper trough will move across the northern
Great Lakes.  This will set up a warm air advection pattern as a
warm front lifts northeast across the area by Wednesday night.
Limited Gulf of Mexico moisture will be tapped in the warm air
advection flow ahead of a cold front.  This should bring a round of
showers and thunderstorms to the local area into Thursday night.  As
low pressure system begins to move east of the area, drier air will
begin to spill into the region.  Upper level pattern remains broad
cyclonic in nature so can`t rule out some widely scattered
convection across the area. The warm air advection pattern will take
the high temperatures back into the lower 80s once again and lows
well into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Diurnal clouds will dissipate after 00-03Z with mostly clear
skies across the area with the possible exception of some
lingering wrap around moisture in the northern lakeshore. Winds
will decouple for all but the lakeshore areas, which when
combined with strong radiational cooling will favor fog
redevelopment. Believe tonight`s set-up is more favorable for
fog than stratus, with IFR conditions possible. The fog could
lift into a brief stratus deck in the morning hours, then
clearing to VFR.

OUTLOOK...Morning IFR fog expected, followed by VFR for the rest
of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front is expected to move east across the lake today and this
will shift the west southwest flow over the lake to a northwest
direction. Winds are expected to diminish today as well and should
shift any threat for small craft conditions up to the eastern third
of the lake.  Otherwise, the rest of the forecast period should see
light and variable winds on the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/Jamison
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Jamison
MARINE...Lombardy



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