Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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822
FXUS61 KCLE 272227
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
627 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight.  A large
area of high pressure will build over the region through the middle
part of the week.  Another cold front will move through the area on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Update...No changes to the evening but did make adjustments to sky
grids for the period towards morning...adding a bit more to the
north. Still, wording should be no more than partly cloudy.

original...A secondary cold front will approach the area this
evening and move across the region overnight. Dewpoints are
already lowering as the primary cold front has moved to the east
this afternoon and the atmosphere is becoming very dry. The
secondary front will usher in unseasonably cool air tonight but
since this front has very little moisture to work with, the
frontal passage should be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As the cold front moves to the east on Tuesday cold air
advection will occur. A short wave will rotate through the upper
level trough throughout the day.  Moisture with this system is very
limited but the 850mb temperatures are cool enough that we could
have some lake enhanced clouds a possibly a few showers.  A few lake
effect showers are noted this afternoon in upper Michigan.  Both the
NAM and the GFS are showing some measurable precipitation on
Tuesday mainly for Northeast Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania. The
current forecast has a slight chance of precipitation for Tuesday
and I see no reason to remove it.  High pressure will build over the
forecast area Tuesday night and remain over the region through
Thursday. Fair conditions will prevail during this period. Another
cold front will move towards the forecast area late Thursday night.
I will bring a slight chance of precipitation into the far western
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level trough will slide east across the Great Lakes region
Friday into Saturday.  The trough will also have embedded in the
feature a fairly vigorous vorticity maximum that will swing through
the area Friday.  The upper level low pressure system to the north
over central Ontario, Canada will be nearly vertically stacked down
to the surface.  This surface low will force a cold front to move
east across the area Friday afternoon or evening. Moisture with this
front is limited and there is the possibility that most areas will
remain dry on Friday.  Will keep the 50/50 chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Friday.  After that, large broad high pressure will
build east across the Great Lakes region Saturday into Sunday where
it will become nearly stationary into mid week.  Fair weather
returns after the cold frontal passage but we will see an upper
level ridge build east and bring a return back to some very warm
temperatures into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
First cold front moved southeast of the area with a marked drop in
dewpoint temperatures. However, the air mass behind the front is
not all that cold and temperatures continue to rise across the
area. The reinforcing cold front will arrive later tonight and
this will usher in some cooler air to the region. Latest satellite
imagery shows clouds in the wake of the cold front will slide
southeast into the area. Not expecting any thing worse than MVFR
ceilings overnight. Visibilities should not be impacted. Gradual
recovery during the day tomorrow. Winds will shift around to a
northwest direction across the area.

Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
updated forecast to bump up the waves for Tuesday. With Northwest
to North winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots tomorrow afternoon
would expect 2 to 4 foot waves.

original discussion...
Winds on the lake will be calming down overnight after the secondary
cold front passes through the area. They will increase again Tuesday
as a weak low pressure develops and moves northeast along the
Appalachian Mountains. High pressure will build east and the
combination of the two features will increase the gradient across
the Great Lakes and hence increase the wind speeds. Winds go light
and variable by Thursday and Friday.  At this time, not expecting
any headlines for gusty winds.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Garnet
NEAR TERM...Garnet/TK
SHORT TERM...Garnet
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...DJB/Lombardy



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