Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 182155
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
555 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WERE DROPPING SOUTH AND
HAVE CLEARED THE TOLEDO AREA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF
FINDLAY AND MARION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE UPDATED FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR CROSSES LAKE ERIE. MOST OF THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SEE PRECIP FROM TIME TO TIME.
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO HEAD THIS WAY AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR...EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA. WILL GO LIKELY
WORDING THAT AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
EVEN NW OH COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THAT AREA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
SLIGHT EXCEPT WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS PERSIST EAST OF
CLEVELAND. THE NEW GUIDANCE IS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS BUT
THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF MIXED SNOW AND RAIN ON THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW PA AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED THAT AREA. THERE SHOULD BE A RAPID
CLEARING IN THE WEST TONIGHT BUT THINGS WILL GET HUNG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS TO BE NO BETTER THAN PARTLY
CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR. IT WILL BE A CHILLY
NIGHT AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER NW PA SHOULD END QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS RIDGING OCCURS AT 850 MB AND DRYING OCCURS AT ALL
LEVELS. EXPECTING SOME CU TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS LOW IS NOW PROJECTED TO CROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE LOW
THERE WILL NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH. BUT...STILL THINK
THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES IN THE WEST BEFORE
12Z. BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WON`T BE AS COLD AS THE
CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC BEHIND IT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PULLS
AWAY QUICKLY AND THE AIR MASS REALLY DRIES OUT ABOVE 850MB. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE AND REMOVED THE LOW CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE
SNOWBELT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ALSO TRENDED CLOUD COVER
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL RESULT IN A
FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUDS. TWEAKED LOWS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WOULD BE IF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF EASTERN LAKE ERIE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 DEGREES BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA IS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA OFF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH VSBY BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR AT
CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO CLIP FDY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARDS 00Z
AS WE LOSE DIURNAL SUPPORT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN ALOFT. CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR INTO THIS EVENING AT TOL/FDY/MFD BENEATH THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION THEN SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. FARTHER
EAST...CEILINGS WILL LARGELY BE ABOVE 3K FEET THIS EVENING THEN DROP
BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT OF
CAK/YNG TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
BACK TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
DROPPING INTO THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE. CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH WHERE WINDS AND WAVES HAVE
COME DOWN ENOUGH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE NEAR THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING BUT THOUGHT CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN CHOPPY ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT GOING...LIKELY THROUGH 10 PM. ALSO ADJUSTED THE
ENDING TIME ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST OF AVON TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM SUNDAY WITH WAVES FORECAST TO DROP OFF A LITTLE QUICKER THEN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TO THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ143>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





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