Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 221137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
737 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

High pressure over the area will weaken into tonight to allow a cold
front to drop south across the area friday. High pressure over
ontario canada will build south into the eastern lakes on the
weekend then shift off to the east by the middle of next week.


Isolated patches of ground fog will quickly burn off by 9 to 10 am.

High pressure stays in control enough to provide another dry and
warm day. There will be patches of mainly thin cirrus dropping se
across the area but most places should should average out to still
be mostly sunny to partly cloudy at the most. Highs this afternoon
should run from the lower 80s in much of nw pa to the mid
80s...although there could be an 87 or 88 in a spot or two.


The surface high over the region will weaken tonight while the upper
level ridge axis remains to the west. This will allow a back door
cold front to drop south across the area from the last few hours of
tonight thru friday. Good moisture is lacking with the front so only
expecting sct shra with maybe enough instability for an isold tsra.
Most of the precip will occur behind the front so the threat for
rain probably won`t start until friday afternoon in the
north...spreading south over the rest of the cwa friday night into
saturday night.

High pressure spreads south into the eastern lakes on the weekend
and should push the threat for shra sw of the cwa by sunday...with
the threat probably staying west of the area sunday night also.

Temps friday will not be as warm with the added cloudiness. Highs on
the weekend will be even cooler running from 65 to 70 in the ne to
the mid to upper 70s in the sw. Lows saturday and sunday night
should get down into the 40s for inland area of nw pa while the rest
of the cwa sees 50s.


By Monday and into mid week the models remain inconsistent from run
to run and in time. Large spreads show in the ensembles as well.
Little/no confidence on the timing of the next front as the models
argue about the progressiveness of the next trough. A number of
solutions still show the upper low cutting off but in various
locations. Some of the runs show the cold front approaching
northwest Ohio as early as Monday evening. The current forecast has
a low pop primarily across northwest Ohio by Monday and then pops
slowly increasing mid week. This may be a reasonable forecast for
now, figuring that the best chance for the trough and front is mid

Temperatures of course are also problematic based on the timing of
the front. The forecast will continue with above normal temperatures
into mid week but forecast highs trend down a bit next week simply
based on climatology and uncertainty. If the front is slow, then we
could see high temperatures 80 or higher into mid week. If the front
is faster we could see highs in the 60s.


.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure over New England will drift east today. Isolated
MVFR fog will burn off early this morning. VFR conditions today
and tonight with patchy high clouds. A weak cold front will drop
across Lake Erie around daybreak Friday but should have little/no
weather except for perhaps MVFR fog at KTOL.

OUTLOOK...VFR expected.


The ridge of high pressure will continue to drift east toward the
east coast today and a southeast flow will become southwest on Lake
Erie. Local lake breezes are likely near the lakeshore this

A cold front will drop across the lake early on Friday. The winds
may begin shifting northwest by daybreak but it will likely take
until later in the day Friday for the wind to become more northerly
and the pressure gradient to tighten. A north to northeast wind of
10 to 20 knots will kick up the waves and approach small craft
advisory criteria (4 foot waves) by Friday evening into Saturday.

A large area of high pressure will be slow to move across eastern
Canada through early next week and an extended period of east to
northeast flow will continue through early next week. Choppy
conditions may persist especially on western Lake Erie.




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