Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 040500
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SUNDAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR MODEL FINALLY CATCHING UP TO REALITY WITH SHOWERS
VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST. DECIDED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TIER
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD ENSURE A TRANQUIL EVENING
FOR VIEWING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
MAY JUST GET BRUSHED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
ON MONDAY AND REACH NEAR 16C WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT WORTH HAVING A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE AREA
GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER
CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING...MANY OF THEM SHOW ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE CANADIAN IS THE FASTEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL RESIDE...WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE WEST
2/3 OF THE AREA THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z. DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTH TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND
ERI CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 1-3 FOOT WAVES THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC


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