Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300212
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1012 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE LAKES THURSDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEW POINTS ARE COMING UP BUT THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE IN MANY AREAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WET SNOW OR A
FEW SLEET PELLETS IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
FILL IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHIFTING
EAST...PERHAPS ALSO NOT AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO TRY AND SHOW A LITTLE RISE IN TEMPERATURE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THEN DROPPING OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AFTER THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE JET BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON IN THE SNOWBELT ON MON WILL PROBABLY
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE WHERE CLOUDS
WILL TEND TO PERSIST.

A CLIPPER LOW REMAINS ON TRACK TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE.
ONCE AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN QUESTION AS THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE FOR THE NE THIRD
OF THE CWA. WHERE MORE SNOW MAY OCCUR IN NW PA DURING THIS
EVENT...GUESS IS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON TUE WILL LIKELY SHOW A GOOD RANGE FROM COLDER
THAN NORMAL AROUND ERI ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE FAR SW ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
LOWS TRACK.

A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP MAY OCCUR FOR A WHILE INTO TUE NIGHT
IN THE EAST BUT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE IN LATER IN THE
NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH MOVING IN AND CALMING THE WIND THE LOWS COULD
BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TUE NIGHT WHERE ANY SNOW COVER EXISTS BUT WON`T
GET TOO EXTREME WITH LOWS AS THERE IS INDICATION THAT HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO MOVE IN.

THE HIGH SHOULD START TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY ON WED BUT PROBABLY NOT QUICK ENOUGH TO GET A LOT OF TEMP
MODERATION ESPECIALLY IF ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS SPILL INTO THE AREA.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD BE DEVELOPING INTO THE CWA WED
NIGHT SO MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION.
PROBABLY WILL BE A SITUATION WHERE THE LOWS OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT
THEN TEMPS WARM AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS INCREASE. NOT SURE
HOW FAR EAST THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWA BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE JUST THE WEST WILL HAVE ANY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THE
PERIOD WILL START WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH DEW POINT
CREEPING TOWARD 50.  SOME UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
LIKELY SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF
THE SPRING.  THE NEW ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE
GFS SO TIMING ISSUES REMAIN.  FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES PROBABLY THURSDAY
EVENING.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT.
BECAUSE OF THIS WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING INTO AT LEAST
EARLY SATURDAY.  HOPEFULLY LATER MODEL RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ALLOWING FURTHER FINE TUNING OF THE PRECIP FORECAST.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO QUIET
AND COOL WEATHER.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FEW SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SW
INDIANA. FRONT WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS. HOURLY PRECIP AMOUNTS BARELY MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH AN
HOUR. SHOULD BE RAIN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA WHERE IT COULD BE RASN. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR IOWA/IL
BORDER...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NOT
MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS IN
THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT UNTIL FROPA
WHEN THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LAKE FORECAST TODAY.  GOT A GOOD LOOK AT THE
LAKE ON SATELLITE AND THE ICE ON THE WEST END CONTINUES TO BREAK
UP.  STILL EXPECTING INCREASING S TO SW FLOW ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SOME SHIFTING IN THE ICE FIELDS
IS LIKELY AND COULD EVEN SEE WATER OPEN UP ALONG ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORELINE.  WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  WILL STICK
WITH 30 KNOTS FOR NOW WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.  THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE AND FLIPS THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW.  A CLIPPER IS STILL SET TO
DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORTHERLY
FLOW.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
LIGHT FLOW.  ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.  WEST TO
NORTHWEST IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KUBINA





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