Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 170601
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
201 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SKIRTING BY THE REGION TO THE NORTH IS
TRIGGERING SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
TOLEDO. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS
LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN INDIANA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FOG.
COULD SEE THE FOG MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. DEW
POINTS RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING DOWN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES.

ORIGINAL...THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE APPEARS
HEADED A BIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN PROGGED. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THERE WILL BE. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ANY
CASE...WILL STILL HAVE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WEST
OF I-71...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE
(LIKELY) FOR SHOWERS EAST OF I-71.

DEWPOINTS ARE COMING UP AND TEMPS WILL NO DROP MUCH...THEY COULD
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE IN EXTREME NE OH/NW PA FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE IT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DRIPS
EARLY. STEADY CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 EXCEPT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER.

A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH REASON THERE WOULD BE ANY WEATHER
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS. A FEW PATCHES OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS
COULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH. A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE COOLER OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST CHUNK OF THE UPPER
LOW LIFTING OUT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESSENTIALLY AS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE DOWN SLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY ERODE
THE SHOWERS TO SOME EXTENT AS THEY COME EAST. EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY OTHERWISE "LIKELY" POPS. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER SINCE WE
WILL LIKELY START OUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND A GENERAL LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES
TO SOME EXTENT WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 60 OR LOWER 60S...MAYBE
MID 60S WHERE THE RAIN ARRIVES LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GETTING GOOD...WE CAN SAY SO LONG SPRING
TIME FOR A WHILE. BACK TO THE WINTER TYPE PATTERN AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
A LARGE PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND VIRTUALLY STALLS...YEP STALLS. THIS
MEANS CYCLONIC COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LATTER PERIODS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT IN BITS OF ENERGY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR
WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. TOL/FDY WILL LIKELY SEE SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE AND POSSIBLY BELOW 1/2 MILE THROUGH
11Z. IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AND DEWPOINTS START TO DECREASE.

.OUTLOOK..NON VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
INCREASING WINDS BY SUNDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY






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