Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 252215
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY PULLING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...PUT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO NERN OHIO
NWRN PA AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE EARLIER THIS EVENING AS RADAR SHOWS
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA.  NO OTHER BIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

ORIGINAL...WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT IF IT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS LAKE
ERIE. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INCREASING BUT REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW.
THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHOWERS/THUNDER TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT/WEAK LAKE BOUNDARY INTERACTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL STILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AREA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL AFTER DARK AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD NW OHIO. THE LOW IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY BE ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY 12Z. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR CHICAGO IN CASE IT SENDS A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TOWARDS WESTERN OHIO.

IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR
THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE WEAKENING LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY PUSHING THE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH SOUTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TOWARD
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. IT MAY
TAKE WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NW PA TO SEE ANY OF THE
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD TRACK
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY LIFT AS FAR
NORTHWARD AS CENTRAL OHIO.

AFTER MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY THE TREND WILL BE
DOWNWARD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S
NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. COLDEST NEAR THE LAKE WITH UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL MEANDER EASTWARD ON FRIDAY BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY MODELS
SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH AND ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF
VARY ON THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER RIDGE ON SATURDAY THAT
GIVES WAY TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY MONDAY. ECMWF HAS A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ON SATURDAY BUT THE FOLLOWING TROUGH IS STRONGER AND
BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
BIASED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS GFS HAS NOT DONE AS WELL HANDLING
THE PRESENT WEATHER. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AS AIRMASS COULD BE
MODESTLY UNSTABLE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
LONG TERM LOOKS ACTIVE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...ALL OF WHICH WOULD PROMOTE TEMPERATURES
TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND FORECAST TO LIFT TO NEAR
ERIE LAKESHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON.   THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z ALONG THE EASTERN ERIE LAKESHORE.  HOWEVER
BULK OF CONVECTION WILL COME OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE NRN IOWA
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.   MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP.   MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
MOVE SHOWERS IN NW OHIO LATE THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT.   NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST TSRA WILL MAKE IT.   SPC HAS NW
OHIO IN MARGINAL RISK WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN GENERAL.

SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON AS
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL OHIO WILL LIFT TO NEAR ERIE LAKESHORE THIS
EVENING AND THEN STALL.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IOWA WILL RIDE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT.  THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE INCREASES TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.  EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL CANADA.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DEPEND UPON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW TRACKS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC



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