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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251755
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE VERY MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE IOWA/ILLINOIS MCS COMPLEX WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. 12 UTC AREA SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD.  THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL BE A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT THE 850MB IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY
ABUNDANT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MORE ON THE SCATTERED
SIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WE MOVE INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT RISE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 AND LI`S OF -6. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. I WILL INCREASE THE
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE MID-EASTERN STATES
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POCKET OF AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY...TUESDAY AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A GRADUAL WARM-UP
BY THURSDAY. I WOULDN`T RULE OUT A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND A
WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SOME POINT ON
SATURDAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME OLD CONVECTION NEARING TOL/FDY
IN THE MORNING...BEST CHANCES FOR THE AREA COME AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO COVERAGE AND TIMING. SO BEFORE THEN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NEAR FLAT WATERS THOUGHT EARLY SATURDAY
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TONIGHT
A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH A FINAL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. YOU COULD SEE A PERIOD WHERE THE
WINDS BLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY WILL HAVE A GOOD
COLD PUSH AND WILL PROBABLY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO EDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...BC/OUDEMAN