


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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533 FXUS61 KCLE 290522 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 122 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front exits this evening, replaced by high pressure through Sunday night. Another cold front comes through Monday night, and then another again around Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9:30 PM Update... The forecast remains on track for tonight. Fog is still likely to develop now that dew points have finally dropped 5 to 10 degrees. This will result in small temp/dew point spreads and when combined with surface ridging over the wet ground and clear skies, fog is a good bet. Will need to monitor for possible advisories late tonight. 6:30 PM Update... The forecast remains on track for the evening with no changes needed. Original Discussion... Convergence along the cold front keeps convection firing along the fringe of the southeastern zones into the late afternoon before exiting. This cold front passage is going to allow temperatures to drop into the mid 60s tonight thanks to a decrease in dewpoints. Winds go calm and boundary layer decouples with fog formation expected for the bulk of the CWA tonight, less the far northwestern corner including the Toledo area. Dry day expected into Sunday with high pressure into Sunday night and continued warm across the region. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Broad upper trough digs into the Great Lakes Monday into Monday night with returning active weather in the antecedent southwest flow aloft ahead of the Monday night cold front. Currently slated for a Day 3 Marginal from SPC for the western portion of the CWA, and will watch to see how that evolves in upcoming forecasts. Still also dealing with a tropical high PWAT/weak flow atmosphere, and will also need to watch for the typical training of heavier rainfall. Cold front should take the POPs with it Tuesday morning off to the south and east, and will settle into a temp and dewpoint forecast for Tuesday about 5 degrees cooler/less than the upper 80s and lower 70s values on Monday. Forecast is dry Wednesday, but another cold front will be on the doorstep with a reinforcing upper low dropping into Ontario/Quebec. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... With another cold front around the Thursday time frame, temperatures will continue to be held in check for the end of the week, primarily in the 80s, but with some 70s in the eastern zones for Thursday in the immediate wake of that front. The upper ridge returns to building in over the deep south region for next weekend, signaling another warming trend for the region while another cold front tries to push back into the southern Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... High pressure across the region will promote clearing skies with dry weather through the TAF period. The main concern will be later this morning, as the atmosphere will decouple under clear skies with ample low level moisture. There will be the opportunity for at least MVFR visibility at all terminals during the pre-dawn hours. For KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG, there is high confidence in reduced visibilities reaching at least the IFR category, if not lower with some locally dense fog. Therefore, have continued to hit these terminals the hardest with impacts, but have backed off slightly as some minor clouds may abate getting well into the LIFR category. Fog will mix out after dawn and light south to southwest winds will be favored today with generally clear conditions. A lake breeze will flip the wind directions at KERI and KCLE late this morning into early afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms late Monday through early Tuesday. && .MARINE... Westerly winds 10-15kts currently bringing 2ft waves Cleveland eastward will ease tonight and become light and variable through Sunday with wave heights becoming less than a foot. Sunday night into Monday, winds turn south southwesterly 10kts ahead of a Monday night cold front. Expecting 2-3ft waves behind the cold front into Tuesday before winds become southwesterly again around 10kts again on Wednesday with wave heights back below 2ft. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...Garuckas/26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...26