Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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043
FXUS61 KCLE 292011
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
411 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front near the Ohio Valley will move north across the
area late tonight and Sunday morning. Deepening low pressure
over the plains will move north to Wisconsin Monday and Ontario
on Tuesday. The associated cold front will move across the
local area on Monday. Cooler and blustery weather will spread
across the area behind the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The clearing has been impressive across southern and central Ohio.
Areas that had heavy rain and thunderstorms this morning had become
mostly sunny, a sure sign of ridging aloft. The front is stubbornly
far south though and it will take until Sunday morning to push north
across the area. In the meantime, yet another wave has begin
propagating eastward along the front. Showers and storms should
slide across Indiana early tonight. Not sure how much activity
will push across the forecast area later tonight given the
increasing ridging, the best chance would be across northwest
Ohio.

Temperatures will not drop much and should begin to rise by morning,
especially across the south. Lows tonight will range from the
lower 60s in the far south to the 40s north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front will move north of the area on Sunday but the
forecast may not be cut and dried. A leading short wave is progged
to lift out across the midwest. If the warm front is still lingering
over Lake Erie and convection fires along the front, the outflow
from the convection could effectively push the front back south to
the south shore of Lake Erie. This may be most likely toward
Conneaut and Erie PA but may also occur elsewhere including Toledo
given the falling pressures out west. A county or two inland from
the lake, my suspicion is that the atmosphere will be capped.
Isolated severe storms are not out of the question.

Will not go all the way on the high temperature forecast near Lake
Erie as compared to inland where it will become windy and quite warm
with highs in the 80s Sunday afternoon.

Once the wind picks up on Sunday, it will remain windy for a few
days. The south wind will blow ahead of the cold front Sunday night
into Monday and the southwest wind will blow behind the front on
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front from
early Monday morning into Monday afternoon east of I-71.

As the cold advection and mixing increase, it may be as windy
or windier on Tuesday. Too early to be definitive but I could
see a wind advisory both Monday and Tuesday especially from
around the I-71 corridor west across northwest Ohio.

A few wrap around showers associated with the upper trough will
spread across the area Monday night and could linger into
Tuesday, especially across extreme northeast Ohio and northwest
PA. Temperatures will tumble by Tuesday with highs only in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday should start off dry in most areas as a short-wave ridge
moves overhead and a surface high moves in from the west. There
could be a few lingering showers early in the period across
northwest Pennsylvania as a trough moves away to the northeast.

Models vary quite a bit starting Wednesday night. We will be dealing
with a developing cut-off low across the Southern Plains that will
most likely stall across the Southeast US somewhere. It is not
surprising the models are struggling with this, but will lean
slightly more towards the timing of the GFS as the ECMWF has a
tendency to be a little fast with the timing of cut-off lows.

This means a slight chance of showers late Wednesday afternoon, but
any precipitation may very well hold off until Wednesday night. Rain
chance will continue through Thursday afternoon as the low remains
stalled off to our southwest with a shortwave trough moving across
the Great Lakes.

An area of high pressure looks to move in from the northwest Friday,
which would dry things out. Temperatures throughout the long range
will be slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Rain is moving northeast across northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania early this afternoon. Expect this rain to move out
of the area entirely by 20-21Z. Within the heavier rain showers,
IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected. Western areas will likely
clear to VFR later this afternoon, with MVFR/IFR conditions
remaining most other locations. Everywhere drops back to
MVFR/IFR conditions tonight with areas of fog. A warm front will
lift north through the region Sunday morning into early
afternoon. This will turn winds to the south and they will
become gusty. VFR conditions expected everywhere except at KERI
by 15-18Z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR and scattered showers possible Monday through
Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds around 15 knots are ongoing this afternoon across
the Western Basin of Lake Erie. Look for this winds to turn around
more to the east and increase to 15 to 25 knots this evening
into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect everywhere
until tomorrow morning. Winds won`t pick up on the eastern half
until around midnight or so. A warm front will lift north of the
lake shore Sunday afternoon turning winds around to the
southeast. Winds will continue to turn more southerly late
Sunday night into Monday. Strong south to southwest winds are
expected Monday, with even stronger westerly winds on Tuesday in
the wake of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed
for these periods. Winds could approach gales on Tuesday, but
the forecast currently keeps the winds just below gale criteria.
Winds will weaken rapidly Tuesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday
     for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Mottice
MARINE...Mottice



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