Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 271734
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
134 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A cold front will be nearing northwest Ohio this evening and will
cross the area tonight. An upper trough will exit Tuesday night
and high pressure will build across the region for Wednesday and
Thursday. A cold front will then cross the area on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The mixing is starting to increase as the day warms. Model
soundings show a very dry airmass overhead with dew points
potentially dropping into the 50s by later this afternoon.
Temperatures are on track to reach around 90F in the east and low
90s in the west. With the humidity dropping the heat index
shouldn`t exceed the ambient temperature. Clouds in the east will
continue to move out of the area and erode as the drier air moves
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A second cold front still located up across Wisconsin and
southern Minnesota will be the one to bring in the cooler
temperatures for the remainder of the week. Fortunately...or
unfortunately depending on the way you look at it when it comes to
water needs...this front will have very limited moisture with it.
Even though the front will be nearing northwest Ohio during peak
heating...a cap in place and limited moisture will keep precip
chances nearly at zero. We loose
The upper trough itself will have a bit more moisture to work with
and the area may see a shower towards Tuesday morning and for the
day on Tuesday. By Wednesday high pressure builds overhead and
there are no rain chances Wednesday or Thursday. A cold front will
be nearing northwest Ohio by Friday morning...but for now will
hold off on any mention during Thursday night.
Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will top out in the 70s. By
Thursday as the high slides east...more will reach the lower 80s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another upper level trough will sweep through the Great Lakes on
Friday with a cold front crossing the area. Scattered thunderstorms
are possible as the front moves into northern OH and nw PA during
the afternoon. High pressure will then build back into the central
Great Lakes by Saturday and should nudge any thunderstorm chances
southward. However the ECMWF indicates a ripple of low pressure
moving along the cold front that will be located to our south. We
will need to monitor the frontal location closely. If it does not
clear the County Warning Area we may need to shift thunderstorm
chances northward into southern areas. The upper level trough should
be far enough east by Sunday to remove any concerns for thunder.
Temperatures through the long term will be near to slightly below
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
First cold front moved southeast of the area with a marked drop in
dewpoint temperatures. However, the air mass behind the front is
not all that cold and temperatures continue to rise across the
area. The reinforcing cold front will arrive later tonight and
this will usher in some cooler air to the region. Latest satellite
imagery shows clouds in the wake of the cold front will slide
southeast into the area. Not expecting any thing worse than MVFR
ceilings overnight. Visibilities should not be impacted. Gradual
recovery during the day tomorrow. Winds will shift around to a
northwest direction across the area.
A weak cold front will drift across Lake Erie today. Southwesterly
winds will become more west in the wake of the front. Waves will
build across the eastern half of the lake but should not exceed 1 to
3 feet. A reinforcing surge of cooler air will arrive on Tuesday
with northwest winds around 15 knots. This should build waves to at
least 2 to 4 feet from Avon Point to Erie. High pressure will build
across the lake from the west on Wednesday and persist into
Thursday with lighter winds expected.