Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 122030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC THIS
EVENING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXIT TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MANUAL PROGS SHOW ONE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH ABOUT TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA HOWEVER BASED ON 925MB TEMP PACKING AS WELL AS SURFACE
TEMPS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE TWO. SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
IN SERN LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACROSS NRN OHIO. FURTHER TO
THE NORTH ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...TEMPS DROP OFF INTO THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF THAT DEPICTING THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THE
FIRST FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND
EARLY EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD
BEGIN AS WELL AS WINDS LINE UP THO THE NORTHWEST BUT WOULD EXPECT
THE BEST DEVELOPMENT TO BE BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. PUT AROUND AN INCH
ACCUM IN FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT REMAINS
ASHTABULA ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES WHERE LAKE HURON MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE FAVORED. THAT SAID...NOT COMPLETELY COMFORTABLE ABOUT
NOT HAVING A HEADLINE IN LAKE AND GEAUGA AS WELL. WHILE THERE IS
A SHORT FETCH AND ONLY LAKE ERIE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ORROGRAPHIC
LIFT PLUS SYNOPTIC LIFT WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION
AND GOOD MOISTURE BELOW 800MB SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY THERE LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL GO WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT AND ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES
SATURDAY. NO OTHER HEADLINE CHANGES. WILL CONTINUE WITH UP TO 6 TO
8 IN THE WARNING AREA. AS FOR TEMPS WILL GO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKES HURON AND ERIE CONTINUE SATURDAY. MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE THE SHORT FETCH OUTSIDE ANY LAKE HURON
BAND...DRYING DEPICTED BY THE NAM12 AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF
A SHRINKING MIXED LAYER IN THE ARCTIC AIR. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDING HOWEVER CONTINUED TO SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW
ABOUT 7500 FT...EXTREME INSTABILITY TO THE LAKE AND VERY LITTLE
SHEAR. THE SHORT FETCH HOWEVER WILL REMAIN. WILL HAVE THE ADVISORY
FOR LAKE AND GEAUGA CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT DAY SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO EVALUATE HOW EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION IS. AS FOR
FORECAST CHANGES...HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE BACK
TOWARD CLEVELAND. WHILE NOT MUCH ACCUMS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SHORT
FETCH AM CONCERNED THAT SNOW SHOWERS DO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY WITH THE BROAD ARCTIC HIGH THAT BUILDS IN. WILL TAPER POPS
TO CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND GO DRY SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS DEVELOP WARM ADVECTION SNOW THAT
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
BROUGHT A CHANCE POP INTO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN
EXPANDED IT EAST TO NEAR A KCLE-KYNG LINE BY 12Z MONDAY WHILE
INCREASING TO SW TIER TO LIKELY. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS -15 TONIGHT AND -15 TO -20
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION MONDAY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE ODD MAN
OUT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TAKING THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...PERHAPS BECAUSE IT DROPS THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE
SO FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY? THE OTHER MODELS
TAKE THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND UP THE
PIEDMONT...THE INLAND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST. THE EAST COAST
TRACK SEEMS MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WOULD BE IN THE APPALACHIANS BUT IT IS STILL TOO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN ANY TRACK. IN ANY CASE...THERE MAY WELL BE SOME SNOW DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY FROM AROUND I-71 EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A REINFORCING PUSH OF ARCTIC OR
SEMI- ARCTIC AIR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ON TIMING AND THE GFS STILL DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT
THAT MOST OF THE THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT BY THURSDAY BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER
THAN EARLIER FORECASTS ASSUMING THAT SOME ARCTIC AIR HAS
SPILLED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.
.
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP...LIGHT SNOW... MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A LARGE RIDGE FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
WARMER TEMPS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S..PERHAPS HEADING TOWARD THE 50S?

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW WILL BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA 21Z-00Z. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING
THE FRONT BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT WHERE THE SNOW BANDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT ANY GIVEN HOUR. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR TYPE
SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT BE AT KERI AND KYNG BUT KCLE AND KCAK ARE
POSSIBILITIES AS WE GO INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW TO NW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL CALM DOWN A BIT BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO BUT REMAIN GUSTY ELSEWHERE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE SNOWBELT OF EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON LAKE ERIE
TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT THERE
WILL BE MAXIMUM MIXING AND WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WE COULD
APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE BRIEF AND NO GALE WARNING IN EFFECT. THE COMBINATION OF
WINDS AND WAVES WILL MAKE FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING SPRAY AND RISK OF
ICE ACCRETION AND THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ICE FORMATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT THIS
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND AN ICE ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN SOUTH ON MONDAY UNTIL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THEN WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH FOR A WHILE ON
TUESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE ON
WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ012-
     013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ014-
     089.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
     EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK


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