Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 252224
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
624 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HAVE REMOVED ALL PRECIP MENTION FROM ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF KMFD WITH NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES
NORTH OF U.S. 30.

PREVIOUS...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET TOO FAR NORTH BECAUSE OF THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
KEPT THE HIGH POPS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE THUNDER
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY MUCH OF SUNDAY AND THEN A WEST TO EAST UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE EXTREME NE PART OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. KEPT IS JUST RAIN...THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS STAYS HIGH. MAINLY
DRY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. 12Z/25 GFS HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM WITH A MORE COMPACT
PIECE OF ENERGY INSTEAD OF A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW. DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE AND A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY JUST LOW
20-30 POPS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME UNTIL WE CAN
NARROW IN ON A PERIOD WHERE CHANCES OF PRECIP COULD BE HIGHER.
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES...MODELS GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS A RIDGE
STARTING TO BUILD ALOFT BY FRIDAY. WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SWATH OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO SOUTHERN OHIO AT
1730Z AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TENDED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE MORE STEADY RAIN STILL ADVANCING NORTHEAST.
THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT FDY/MFD THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE OF REACHING CAK BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND CONSOLIDATING ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WINDS OFF LAKE ERIE MAY CAUSE
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TOLEDO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AT ALL SITES ON SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA SUN NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE HAVE
INCREASED TO 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 10 PM FROM CLEVELAND WEST TO TOLEDO. WINDS WILL BACK TO
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE TO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AND LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY UNTIL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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