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000
FXUS61 KCLE 052034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
334 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL STALL THEN A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM TENNESSEE
THROUGH VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS OHIO
SUNDAY NIGHT PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE WEATHER FEATURES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS SW SO TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOS MAY NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO JUST SNOW FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE THICKNESS LAYERS ABOVE 850 MB ALL
SUPPORT THIS LOGIC. INSTEAD THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A CHANGEOVER TO A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL AND SOME RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF A LITTLE
FZRA/SLEET TOWARD DAYBREAK AS TEMPS FINALLY GET DOWN TO THE FREEZING
POINT. BASED ON ONLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON FRI...THE EVENT
STILL LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY SITUATION VERSUS A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS TEMPS GET A LITTLE COLDER ALOFT THINK THE MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ALTHOUGH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
KNOX...HOLMES...STARK AND MAHONING CO`S COULD STILL SEE SOME SLEET
MIXED IN. THE EVENT WILL TAPER OFF FRI EVE AS THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE HEADS ENE INTO VA. SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM ABOUT 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH TAPERING TO 2
INCHES OR LESS IN THE FAR NORTH. TOL SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCH OR LESS.

THE SITUATION STILL LOOK LIKE ONLY MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS
LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SAT SO WILL STAY WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
INTO THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT
WHILE TEMPS RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE FIRST OF TWO BLASTS OF ARCTIC
AIR THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS.  MODELS ARE JUST A BIT DRIER INITIALLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH BY 18Z DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE INTO/ACROSS
THE AREA.  TO BE BRIEF...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT MINUTE DETAILS BUT
EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH.  INITIAL TEMP PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AT ONSET BUT THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM.  WHILE THE
COLUMN WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH NO ICE
CRYSTALS AVAILABLE. THROUGH THE EVENING HOWEVER FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH
SURFACE TEMPS NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. TEMPS SHOULD BE STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY INCREASING THE AREA WHERE SURFACE
TEMPS REACH ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BEING SE.
MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DROPPING TEMPS DURING THE DAY
FOR ANOTHER 12 HOUR NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND. BIG PICTURE SHARPLY
COLDER WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOW BELT...EVENTUALLY
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT MID DAY MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER
MVFR CIGS WITH RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES HAS ALSO CAUSED A FEW RAIN SHOWER TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW BREAKS TO VFR AS WELL. THIS EVENING DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RETURN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECTING AIRMASS TO BE MARGINALLY WARM
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY BEGIN AS RAIN BUT THEN MIX WITH SNOW AND SLEET
THROUGH THE EVENING AS AIRMASS COOLS. MOSTLY MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE MORNING BUT LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SNOW WILL RETURN SO CONTINUED MVFR/IFR.


OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WITH A LONG FETCH WEST
WINDS ON THE LAKE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR
HIGHER THROUGH THE NIGHT.  WINDS WILL TURN NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO FRIDAY.  SATURDAY THE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE A BIT AS THE BUILDING HIGH NEARS BUT SLIPS JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. COULD REQUIRE ANOTHER SCA IF WAVES RESPOND BEFORE THE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT.  SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. SCA HEADLINES POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.  ALSO
EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK