Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCLE 312348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO
MAINLY THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM SO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...TO THE
SW...EXPECTING FAIR WEATHER TO OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AS DEW POINTS FIGHT
TO GET PUSHED DOWN MUCH AS WINDS GO NEARLY CALM...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE LESS CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BE.

THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL HELP LOWS TO DIP
INTO A RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 EAST AND 30 TO 35 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST. AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME.

CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY AND THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE
THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE DAY FOR A HIGH.  THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
LIKELY PUSH THE WARM AIR UP TO THE LAKE SHORE AS WELL. EASTERN
PORTIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO FRIDAY AND THEN EAST OF OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SO...NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND ENDING THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP DURING THE MORNING.  TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED
PRECIP. A FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
NIGHT.  SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT THINK IT WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  THE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT BY TUESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF 60S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BUT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER AT
KERI IN THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT IT WOULD BE LIGHT AND PROBABLY SHORT
LIVED AND LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST. VFR ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
VARIETY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.  THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  INCREASING SW FLOW IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT ITSELF
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FLOW RETURNING TO
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.  WINDS AGAIN WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT BEHIND
THIS FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A
WAVE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT.  THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER GOING INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY
WIN OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP THIS WEEK
AND CONTINUED DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED ON THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.