Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 221041
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
641 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move east across the area late
this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will move southeast across
the area Wednesday. A large area of high pressure will build
southeast into the central Great Lakes for the latter half of the
work week and persist into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Active thunderstorms barreling along across northern Indiana
pushed east into northwest Ohio over the last hour or so but
they have weakened considerably. The showers and a couple
embedded thunderstorms will continue to push east through the
morning hours. Tried to time precipitation a little better.
Still looking at best thunderstorms to occur in the extreme east
with best day time heating scenario shaping up. Cold front
still on track with timing for early this afternoon in the west
and into late afternoon in the east.

Previous Discussion...

A strong cold front is still progged to move east into the
forecast area. Timing still puts it into the western portions of
the forecast area (Toledo and Findlay) by early afternoon and
to Erie and Youngstown by late afternoon. Convection is already
pushing east through Indiana and is about to move into western
Ohio. The thunderstorm activity will likely help suppress
temperatures from rising too much like yesterday in the west.

The Storm Prediction Center has now pushed the slight risk for
severe weather further east than previously expected which makes
more sense due to early convection over our area and the greatest
potential for heating the further east one goes. Even our extreme
eastern portions may be suppressed depending on cloud cover through
the day. So, once again, since threat appears to be uncertain, will
not add any strong wording to the forecast at this time.

Once the cold front pushes east of the area, improvement will take
place fairly quickly. Showers and thunderstorms will push east of
the area as well.  A trough of low pressure will move southeast
toward the area Wednesday. This will set up a lake enhanced threat
of rain showers in the northeast so will mention a chance of showers
in the northeast snowbelt region.  Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast area should see fair weather through the day Wednesday.

Temperatures today will be tricky with highs not expected to reach
the levels they were yesterday due to more cloud cover and threat
for showers and thunderstorms.  Will keep them on the warm side in
the east but shade them back a bit in the west.  Overnight lows will
definitely be cooler after the frontal passage.  Same goes for
tomorrow with cold air advection taking place from the west and
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A series of short waves is progged to drop through the unseasonably
deep trough aloft over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada the second
half of the week. The first short wave, combined with cooler air
aloft, could produce a shower or two in the snowbelt Wednesday
night. A more impressive looking short wave is progged to drop
across the eastern Great Lakes late Thursday. The air mass at the
surface will be relatively dry and stable but with steepening lapse
rates and the August sun we should be able to generate some showers
on Thursday, mainly over northeast OH and northwest PA. A few of the
showers could linger into Thursday night in the snowbelt. Cannot
rule out thunder but will keep it simple for now and just mention
showers.

Temperatures will be unseasonably cool with highs generally in the
upper 60s and lower 70s Thursday and Friday and lows in the
lower/mid 50s except warmer at the lakeshore. Lows Friday night will
tickle the 40s in many inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper air pattern looks blocked by the weekend into early next
week with the trough locked over the northeast and ridging out west
and off the mid Atlantic Coast. Surface high pressure will be very
slow to move east and remain over eastern Canada. This will provide
an extended period of fair weather with temperatures only slowly
moderating and remaining below normal. Forecast highs in the 70s and
lows mostly in the 50s. There could be some high clouds from the
plains states by Sunday and especially Monday. Continuity has a
mention of showers/storms by Monday and will step that down to a
slight chance for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A cold front will approach from the west today. Showers and
thunderstorms in advance of the cold front will spread east
through the day into this evening. Expecting showers and storms
to push through Toledo and Findlay this morning and continue
east through the day. The best chance for the thunderstorms to
become severe will be across the eastern quarter of northern
Ohio and including northwest Pennsylvania. This will include
Erie, Youngstown, and Akron-Canton. As front moves east of the
area this evening, rapid improvement will take place overnight.
Winds will also be on the increase ahead of and behind the cold
front, especially near the lake.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in morning fog Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will push across Lake Erie this afternoon and
evening and mariners will have to be alert for potentially multiple
rounds of gusty showers and thunderstorms. The southwest wind will
be enhanced ahead of the front as a nice low level jet spreads
across the eastern Great Lakes today. The flow will become west to
northwest late this afternoon and tonight behind the front. Small
craft advisories will remain in effect.

The weather pattern will suddenly become fall-like the second half
of the week. High pressure will build in from the west on Wednesday
but the WNW flow will remain brisk on the east half of the lake and
will extend the small craft advisory through the day Wednesday from
Avon Point east.

A weak secondary front/trough will drop across the lake on Thursday.
It will be cold enough aloft for a few showers and perhaps a
waterspout. High pressure will build across eastern Canada this
weekend and an extended period of northeast to east flow will
develop. Wind speeds may be just strong enough for the west half of
the lake to get choppy by early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ010>012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Kosarik


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