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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190153
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE HUMID AIR EARLY IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND HOURLY TEMPS A BIT BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND SPC RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN OHIO. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT THAT WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL ONLY CARRY A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
SOUTH OF A FDY-MFD-CAK LINE. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH SOME INCREASE
POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SHIFTING BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE. STILL NO OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO FAIRLY LOW POPS...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOCUSED SOUTH OF A FDY-YNG LINE. EXPECTING A LITTLE
LESS CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE
ADDED IN A LOW POP TO NW OHIO AS THETA E RIDGE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA. MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH DETECTING NOCTURNAL SHOWERS IN THIS
PATTERN AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE THIS SLIGHT CHANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MOISTENING AIRMASS WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA...THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE TROUGH AND TRIES TO MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE. MONDAY
WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED FOR MOST AREAS WITH CHANCES INCREASING ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S ON MONDAY...THEN DROP
BACK INTO THE LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE. LOWS WILL BE MILD AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UP...DROPPING INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM AS IT MOVES EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.  THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE BEST LIFT FROM
THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARED TO BE MORE ON
WEDNESDAY YESTERDAY AND IT LOOKS MORE LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH THIS RUN.  IN EITHER CASE...THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED STORMS THROUGHOUT.  THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS MODEL RUN WILL FORCE ME TO PUT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS
CREEPING UP A BIT COULD SEE MVFR BR TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS.

APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAN TODAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A YNG
TO FDY LINE. THAT SAID ONLY WENT VCTS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
BECAUSE LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY SET UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO PAST FEW DAYS.
EVEN THOUGH CAPES TOMORROW AFTERNOON FORECAST TO BE IN 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE WILL STILL HAVE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.  A
FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE 12Z BUFKIT RUN SHOWS A POCKET OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
WITHIN 1KFT OF THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH 00Z. WITH
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FETCH WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET
OVER THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH THE CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL...I WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL SETUP
ON SUNDAY BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAKER AND THEREFORE
THE WINDS NOT AS STRONG.  I DO NOT ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...GARNET