Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251120
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW
WILL SNEAK UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT APPEARS THE CLEARING LINE WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST MOST AREAS. HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIP MENTION FROM NW OH
AND HAVE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS IN NW PA. OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MORE THAN A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT READINGS.

PREVIOUS...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS NW OH WHERES GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. BY
DAYBREAK WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS. ABOUT THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IN. MOST OF
THIS IS JUST FLURRIES. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD A SMALL MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW IN NW OH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE SO THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND. AS IT STANDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION TODAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
A RISE IN TEMPS TODAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS BEHIND THE TROUGH. WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY DAY. QUESTIONS BEGIN TO ARISE
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MAKE IT. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN UP THE
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS OCCURS. WILL GO WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM DEEPER
MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE EAST COAST STORM. SOME LAKE EFFECT
WILL THEN TRY TO GET GOING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS GET TO AROUND NEG 12. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WANE FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET AN INCH OR TWO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD WARMER CONDITIONS AS ARCTIC
OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ARE TRENDING TOWARD
POSITIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. NO
STRONG COLD AIR OUT BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEEKS END WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUMP WARM MILD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR HIGHS.

COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
IT WILL STALL AND BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MERGE OVER NEW YORK AND MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AS VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP DOWNWARD A BIT BUT NOT TO FRIGID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WARM SPELL LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS AT AROUND 2500 FEET WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND LIFT TO AROUND 3500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY BUT I ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT IT APPEARS WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK BY 9 AM EST THIS MORNING.  WINDS EVENTUALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
FINALLY DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF
THE LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-145>149-
     165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY








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