Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231249
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
849 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SUPPORTING SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD KICK IN AROUND 10 AM WHICH
WILL QUICKLY ERODE MOST OF THIS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MILD WARM ADVECTION WILL
HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. AN APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE IN INDIANA WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR W COUNTIES
LATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE EVAPORATES MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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