Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 010159
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
959 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER WESTERN
LAKE ERIE WHERE THE MLCAPE IS NEAR 500 J/KG. ISOLD CONVECTION
FARTHER WEST ALONG I-80 CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER THE LAKE TO PROGRESS EAST BUT WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDER OVER LAND NEAR THE LAKE AND OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXCEPT
NEAR TOL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP KEEP READINGS WARMER TONIGHT.
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPERATURES IN A FEW SPOTS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH FALL TYPE PATTERN SET UP OVER THE
AREA.  UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INTERMITTENT SCATTERED
SHOWERS.   SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH AS
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MODELS ALL OVER
THE PLACE AS FAR AS CONVECTION.  WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND VERY
LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AS A BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO SAG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. VERY DIFFICULT TO
TELL WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT WE MAY BE ON AND THE TIMING OF THE
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN
SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT THE 12ZS
ECMWF BRINGS THE SOUTH FLOW RIGHT BACK ON WEDNESDAY AND PUTS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION BACK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. THE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW LATER IN
THE WEEK WHICH LOOKS A BIT TOO STRONG GIVEN THE RATHER FLAT LOOK OF
THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT.

TO MAKE MATTERS MORE INTERESTING...A LARGE ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL
ADVECTION AND OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHAT EVER DEVELOPS THERE WILL PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND LIKELY END UP IN THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
TUESDAY ON. WE WILL END UP NEEDING "LIKELY" POPS FOR SOME FORECAST
PERIODS BUT NOT SURE WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE YET. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CREEPING
ABOVE NORMAL SINCE DEW POINTS SHOULD COME UP. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SUN SETS AND TEMPS
START TO COOL. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
SOME MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY
DISSIPATE FROM 12 TO 13Z. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF IFR FOG BUT AT
THIS TIME JUST NOT SURE WHETHER ANY WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BUT UPPER ENERGY MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP A CU FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WITH ONLY
ABOUT A 30% CHC ACROSS THE AREA WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.

DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INDUCE A LAKEBREEZE SO LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
TURN NORTH AT CLE AND NW AT ERI FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE
AGAIN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWEST WIND HAS BEEN A BIT BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
ERIE TODAY BUT THAT SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALMOST OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON ALL SIDES
OF THE LAKE. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL TURN THE WIND FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
AND THE NORTH FLOW COULD LINGER ON SUNDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH BY
MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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