Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCLE 191707
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
107 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY WILL HANDLE IT.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS...LOWERED THEM A LITTLE BASED
ON THE NOON METARS AND THE HRRR TEMPERATURE FORECAST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO THE MAX OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS SPILLING NORTH INTO AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE CIRRUS WILL SCOOT IN FROM THE WEST AT
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WINDS AND WAVES
WERE DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE CHOPPY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.