Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201149
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
649 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OHIO/NW PA LATER
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ONGOING OUT ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SOME THIS
ACTIVITY REACHING INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME
TODAY UNTIL A TROUGH CROSSES THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT
IS WELL AGREED UPON AND WILL TAKE THE MORE INTENSE BAND INLAND
LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL BE
ENHANCED AS A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF TIME LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CLEARLY PUSH BACK OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF ERIE COUNTY
VULNERABLE TO THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAVE DECIDED TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING AT NOON. IT WILL BE LATER...TOWARD EVENING
BEFORE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER SNOW REACHES FURTHER INLAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY OR TWO. ANY BREAKS
IN THE SKY COVER WILL TEND TO FILL BACK IN. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND FEEL COOLER.

NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE...BUT KEEPING A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE EAST LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH BRINGS THE FLOW AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE AS A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ENHANCE LIFT. WELL DEVELOPED BAND
OUT OVER THE LAKE WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
INTO ERIE COUNTY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE EVENING RUSH. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH THE SHIFT IN FLOW THE BAND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK AND WILL TRANSITION FROM A SINGLE BAND TO MULTIBANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OVER ERIE COUNTY WILL YIELD WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL. EXPECT AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY TO REACH
6 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. PLACED ASHTABULA WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY.
BE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY THIS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
WARNING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. FURTHER WEST FOR LAKE GEAUGA AND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AND THIS MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
AND LOWER THE INVERSION...TAPERING AND PUTTING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT/MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL STILL TEND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET
UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN...NEAR 10. WARMER UNDER THE LAKE CLOUDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY
TO GO TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS. WILL STILL STRUGGLE WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 800-950MB LAYER TO WARM TO AS MUCH AS 5C WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LAGS BEHIND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF
THIS...ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A
MINIMAL GLAZE EXPECTED...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH FREEZING BY NOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...QUICKLY MELTING ANY SLICK
SPOTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT WITH A BREAK CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THEY CURL NORTH
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST...BUT
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AS DOWNSLOPING
HELPS TO BRING SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY FRONT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT IS TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED. IT APPEARS THAT KERI
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS SHOULD BE
MVFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. KCLE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SHSN BUT SHOULD
PROBABLY NOT GO BELOW MVFR. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS PERSIST BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL SHIFT
THE SNOW BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME
DRIER AIR WILL MOVES INTO THE WEST ALLOWING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING THURSDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. AREAS OF NON
VFR SHOULD RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE LAKE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ON THE
EAST HALF INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC





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