Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 251855
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and New England will
move slowly east to the coast by Sunday morning. This will allow
A cold front to move east across the area Sunday night. The front
will move southeast of the area Monday morning. High pressure will
build in Tuesday and Wednesday
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure and a dry stable airmass will keep skies mostly
clear overnight. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure moves east overnight into Sunday allowing a frontal
system to approach from the west. Sunday evening/night a warm
front will move in from the west...followed quickly by a weak cold
front. Moisture and instability moving in ahead of the system
will continue to require pops in the west during the day. Best
chance will be in the afternoon so will limit pops to chance
category far west for the mid/late morning. For the afternoon will
bring chance pops east to near a klpr-kmnn line and increase to
likely far west. MAV MET guidance fairly convinced that there will
be precip Sunday night with the front with likely and categorical
pop numbers given. Looking at stabilities...the NAM12 shows
evening capes in the west over 2000 j/kg. The gfs has li`s around
-6. By 12z Monday li`s are still -2 to -4 east/central in vicinity
of the front. Will go along with cat pops west half including much
of the north through the evening and then taper pops back to
likely after midnight. Will need to continue likely pops into the
morning hours Monday far southeast but expect drier air to move in
for late morning and afternoon. Will have chance pops east half
Tuesday as the upper trough drops south across the lakes into the
area. Temps in the mid 80s to near 90 Sunday and Monday dropping
into the 70s Tuesday as much cooler air moves in.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper trough will be over the area on wed but surface high
pressure will be spreading east over the region. Think the surface
high will end up leading to a dry day but its possible an isolated
shra/tsra could occur in the extreme east with daytime heating.
The high will generally remain over the are into sat but weaken by
fri as a dissipating cold front drifts se into the area. This front
could trigger a few shra/tsra on fri. The dissipating frontal
boundary should still be over or near the area on sat for a
continued small chc for shra/tsra helped by an upper s/w trough that
is expected to be pushing into the lake erie area.
Temps on wed should be a little cooler than normal then moderate to
near normal for thu thru sat.
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
A dry airmass will keep skies fairly cloud free until higher clouds
start to arrive from the nw toward the end of the night thru midday
sunday. Light and variable winds will become south by sunday and
increase to 5 to 10 knots by midday.
Outlook...Areas of non-VFR expected Sunday night into Monday in sct
thunderstorms. Non VFR possible across NE OH/NW PA on Tuesday.
High pressure shifts off to the east by sunday to allow south winds
to develop and increase to about 10 to 15 knots. Several cold fronts
will cross the lake sun night into mon night veering the winds to
west then nw with winds probably rising into a 10 to 20 knots range
for a while. This could push waves into a 2 to 4 foot range. High
pressure spreads into the lake by late wed to diminish the winds.