Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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804
FXUS61 KCLE 021740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12 UTC DTX SOUNDING SHOWS
MOIST CONDITIONS TO NEAR 700 MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE. FOR THE AFTERNOON WE EXPECT MAINLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH. WILL LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURE A CATEGORY OR SO TO REFLECT THE REDUCTION IN SOLAR
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
HAS LEFT BEHIND A SOLID DECK OF NON VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CIGS HAVE STRUGGLED TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS KTOL AND
KFDY HAVE JUST REACHED MVFR STATUS WHILE THE OTHER FIVE SITES ARE
STUCK IN IFR. MEANWHILE ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF KMFD/KCAK/KYNG THIS EVENING BRINGING
ADDITION MOISTURE TO THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS TAF
PACKAGE DIFFERS GREATLY BETWEEN IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT TO ENTIRELY
LIFTING THE LAYER TO VFR. SEEING NO TRUE FORCING TO LIFT THE
LAYER AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION... WENT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH SOME OF THE TAFS SITES TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT WITH OTHERS LIFTING INTO MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY VFR ESPECIALLY KTOL/KFDY. IN ADDITION SOME THINNING
OF CLOUDS OVER LAKE ERIE MAKE ME BELIEVE THAT KERI MAY JUMP FROM
IFR TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CERTAINLY A MIXED BAG OF CIGS
TO BE CONCERNED WITH THIS EVENING...

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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