Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261751
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN OH/NW PA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE HEAT KICKS
BACK IN AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHORT TERM
TRENDS. WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER INDIANA HAS TRIGGERED SOME EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION. IT IS SLOWLY WORKING TO THE EAST AND MAY
REACH NW OHIO A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. I WILL
ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR TIMING. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH A SURGE IN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. IT HAS BEEN OVER A MONTH SINCE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY LAST SAW
A DAY THAT REACHED 90 OR BETTER. TODAY DEFINITELY HAS A CHANCE AT
HITTING 90. THE IN-FREQUENCY OF THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
TROPICAL DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO AN UNCOMFORTABLE DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...ESPECIALLY BECAUSE WE HAVE NOT BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO
CONDITIONS THIS WARM THIS SUMMER. OUTSIDE OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S EXPECTED...BASICALLY A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST DISSIPATED QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A CUMULUS FIELD AGAIN TODAY. UPDATED EARLY
MORNING SKY COVER. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE PICTURE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH THE
COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR DETROIT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. EARLY MORNING UPDATE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ALL OF OF TONIGHT TO CROSS THE AREA. LITTLE
UPPER SUPPORT AND FRONT GETS STRETCHED AS MOST OF THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY GETS PULLED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
STILL NOT WARRANTING MORE THAN A 50 OR 60 POP WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO FAR NE OH/NW PA. BUT WITH
NIGHTFALL...LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND SLOW PROGRESS/LIFT WITH THE
FRONT COVERAGE NOT TOO WIDESPREAD. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MOIST AIR MASS.

THE FRONT STILL LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING
DURING THE MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS NOT REAL FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ALLOW
PRECIP CHANCES TO END BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRIMMED BACK WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE. WILL GO BACK TO THE 70S/LOWER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES START CLIMBING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH A WARM FRONT THAT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NO PRECIP YET WITH THIS WARM FRONT AS MOST OF THE SUPPORT LOOKS TO
BE TOO FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL CONCERNED IT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE.
HAVE KEPT THE CHANCES OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT IF THE FRONT REALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
THEN LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WITH
THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
ON THE TIMING WILL ONLY GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NOT GO SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY SO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

IF THE FRONT REALLY IS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND CLOUD
COVER IS MINIMAL THEN HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UP FROM CURRENT
THINKING. SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA WILL
FIGHT SOME STABLE AIR AS THEY COME EAST BUT I AM GUESSING THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL COOLING AND SURFACE DEW POINT POOLING TO
GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP THEM GOING AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL USE A TEMPO FORECAST FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST SEVERAL HOURS
LATER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER DEVELOP RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THAT WOULD BE JUST SPECULATION AT THIS POINT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE
IT IN THE FORECAST. WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT TYPICALLY WE SEE STRATUS DEVELOP DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN
THE HILLS OF NE OH/NW PA AND WILL INDICATE SUCH IN THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
PERHAPS MOST LIKELY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. AS THE FRONT PASSES
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BUILD WAVES INTO AT LEAST THE
2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY IF WINDS ARE EVEN 5
KNOTS STRONGER THAN CURRENT THINKING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH EASTERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TOLEDO LAST SAW A 90+ DEGREE DAY ON JULY 22ND. THE ONLY OTHER 90+
DAYS THIS YEAR WERE ON JUNE 16 AND 17. AN AVERAGE TOLEDO HAS 16
DAYS OF 90+ DEGREE DAYS A YEAR.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN
CLIMATE...






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