Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221754
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
154 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the East Coast will move offshore today into
Monday and allow a series of cold fronts to push east across
the region Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure will remain across
the lower Great Lakes Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies should remain mostly sunny through the afternoon and have
updated the forecast to reflect that. Clouds will start to
thicken in northwest Ohio as we head into this evening.

Original...High pressure along the East Coast will provide one
more sunny to partly cloudy mild day today before moving east.
By this evening expect clouds will be increasing from the west
ahead of the approaching cold front due in on Monday. Expect
highs today in the mid 70s and lows tonight 55 to 60. After
midnight tonight will bring chance pops into the west. Monday
models in good general agreement developing a wave on the front
as it moves into the area as an upper level trough digs into the
western lakes and upper midwest. Deep moisture will overspread
the area and will have categorical pops for most. QPF is highest
west half with the NAM and GFS between roughly 1 and 2 inches.
Amounts less than an inch east. WPC values are a bit more
restrained and show between a half inch and an inch and a quarter
with highest amounts west. Highs Monday in the 60s west to near
70 east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models
coming into to good agreement with the first front moving across
the forecast area late Monday into Monday night. Get a short
break from the rain Tuesday morning as the system pulls east of
the area. The break will be short lived as second stronger cold
front pushes across the forecast area late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. by daybreak Wednesday deep upper level trough over the
area with 850mb temps around -2c.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect showers possible in the East Wednesday into Wednesday
night with upper trough over lakes and 850mb temps around -2c.
chance of a few snow showers mixing in Wednesday night but nothing
widespread.   Ridge builds in quickly on Thursday cutting off the
lake effect.

Models still in conflict for next weekend.   GFS moves next system
through Saturday with a secondary trough Sunday.   The ECMWF on the
other hand holds off the system until late Sunday into Sunday night.
For now will just continue with low chance pops Saturday in the west
and everywhere saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will continue until late tonight before lower
clouds arrive from the southwest in advance of approaching low
pressure. Moisture will surge north into the area on Monday
ahead of a low pressure system that will develop over the lower
Mississippi Valley and deepen as it tracks towards northwest
Ohio. Ceilings will abruptly lower to MVFR and eventually IFR as
rain begins on Monday. Widespread rain is expected across the
area but will not reach the eastern sites until after 18Z. MVFR
to IFR visibilities can be expected in rain.

Southerly winds will be breezy today across northwest and north
central Ohio with gusts to 22 knots through 22Z. Downsloping
winds will become gusty at ERI after 06Z and at all of the
eastern terminals on Monday morning.

OUTLOOK...Areas if Non-VFR in rain Monday through Wednesday.
Some snow may occur Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the lake today with a light south flow.
Winds gradually pick up overnight into Monday as gradient
tightens ahead of approaching cold front. Small craft advisory
will be needed Monday night into mid week as cold front moves
across the lake Monday evening. Winds turn to the NW and
increase to 15 to 25 kt behind the front. Second stronger cold
front will move across the Lake Tuesday. Much colder airmass
moving over the lake with 850mb temps plunging to -2c by
daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB



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