Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 192329
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER STILL SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/MIST HOWEVER SELY/SLY WINDS WILL ALSO NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF
SO EXPECTING LESS FOG THAN PREVS NIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECTING MOST PRECIP TO BE AFTER 00Z SO LEFT PRECIP OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW. STILL...COULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SSW AT 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN





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