443
FXUS64 KOHX 201627
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1127 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tonight)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Another relatively quiet day is underway across Middle TN.
Temperatures around the area area already well into the upper 70s
and some have crossed into the low 80s. If we apply the old addage
of 10 at 10, meaning add 10 degrees to the current temperature at 10
am and that`ll be your high for today, that means the current
forecast is a couple of degrees low. So, we may actually see a few
low 90s across the mid-state this afternoon. Records should be safe
as today`s record at BNA is 92 set in 2018, but if we reach 90
today, it`ll be the first time this calendar year, but the first
time since September 26th of last year. One more nugget: we hit 90
for the first time last year on May 15th.

We`re already starting to see some cu field develop, especially east
of I-65 and while we don`t have any PoP in the forecast, after
looking over a few things this morning, I have to throw in a 20 PoP
this afternoon and evening along and east of I-65. This morning`s
12Z sounding here at OHX showed a strong inversion at 700 mb, which
is high enough to allow a couple of pinhead showers to develop
within these cu fields, but just in case that inversion erodes over
the Plateau, I`ve thrown in a mention of thunder. Shear is non-
existant, so anything that shows up on radar will likely be very
short-lived, but these tiny rain chances could last into the early
evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Tuesday will be much of the same, minus the pinhead rain chances.
However, Wednesday looks to the beginning of yet another period of
unsettled weather. Latest extended CAMs just creep into Wednesday
morning and are already showing showers and a few storms crossing
the TN River at daybreak. This may be a situation where we see
morning showers/storms, then a late morning break before additional
afternoon and evening storm chances develop. The good news is, at
this point, forecast soundings are unimpressive Wednesday for most
of Middle TN. We are able to work about 1000 J/Kg into our northwest
quadrant during the afternoon and about 70% of ensemble suggest 30
kts of shear or better as a weak front approaches from the west
Wednesday evening. That would suggest the potential for a couple of
strong storms closer to the TN River, but shear falls off closer to
the I-65 corridor. This would coincide well with the current SPC
outlook Wednesday.

Thursday through Memorial Day looks like multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms as Wednesday night`s weak front hangs around
the region. I don`t see one day with a particular stronger storm
threat over the next, but with multiple rounds of storms passing
through the area and PWs remaining well above seasonal norms,
rainfall totals could start to add up by the end of the weekend.
Again, while there isn`t any pointed severe threat over the
holiday weekend at this point, there is at least a low-end shot at
some cumulative flooding by Monday, so check back throughout the
week for the latest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Any lingering fog will quickly burn off this morning, leaving all
sites VFR with a light southwest wind today. Skies will be mostly
clear, with the exception of passing high clouds over the west.
Winds will go calm again after 00Z this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  67  90  69 /  20  20   0  10
Clarksville    89  66  89  69 /   0  10   0  20
Crossville     82  60  84  62 /  20  20  10   0
Columbia       88  64  89  67 /  20  20   0  10
Cookeville     84  63  85  65 /  20  20   0   0
Jamestown      84  60  84  63 /  20  20  10   0
Lawrenceburg   86  64  88  66 /  20  20   0   0
Murfreesboro   89  64  89  66 /  20  20   0   0
Waverly        89  66  89  69 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Whitehead