827
FXUS64 KOHX 170523
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1223 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Not a lot of change with this forecast update. High clouds are
moving in over W TN as an upper trough continues to push E. Cloud
cover will increase through the night followed by showers moving
into Middle TN early Friday morning. Some thunderstorms are
expected, but look to remain sub-severe with latest CAMs showing
even less CAPE and shear than previous runs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

KOHX radar is getting a break today with only some Cu and cirrus
around this morning. Breaks in the clouds are expected to become
more numerous this afternoon. Rain and storm chances will return
tonight as upper ridging moves east and is replaced with
southwesterly flow. Showers and storms will move in close to dawn.
There should be a break in the showers and storms in the morning
with a chance of more showers of storms in the afternoon and into
the overnight hours as a broad trough moves toward the area. As
far as severe potential on Friday, the potential looks low with
marginal shear and CAPE values less than 500 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The trough will slow its eastward progress Friday night with the
troughing influences lingering on Saturday with more showers and a
storm or two. With the clouds and showers, highs on Saturday
should stay in the 70s across the the area. The trough axis will
move east Saturday night with northerly flow on Sunday. A couple
of sprinkles are possible on Sunday mainly along the plateau.
Upper ridging will build in from the west Sunday night with
southerly return flow on Monday and Tuesday. With that,
temperatures will warm well into the 80s on Monday and Tuesday,
and we have the potential of touching 90 for the first time this
year on Tuesday. A cold front will approach Tuesday night or
Wednesday with showers and storms. Behind the front, temperatures
will be slightly cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR cigs will develop at airports early in the TAF period as
SHRA spread into the area from the west. Cigs/vis will lower to
MVFR by afternoon with continued -SHRA, and IFR at CSV/SRB by this
evening. Although TS are possible this TAF period, chance appears
too low to mention in TAFs. Light east to southeast winds are
expected through the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  63  79  63 /  90  60  30  30
Clarksville    74  61  78  62 /  80  60  20  20
Crossville     69  60  74  59 /  90  70  50  50
Columbia       72  62  79  62 /  80  50  30  30
Cookeville     71  61  75  60 /  90  70  40  40
Jamestown      72  59  74  58 /  90  80  50  50
Lawrenceburg   72  63  79  62 /  80  50  30  30
Murfreesboro   74  62  79  61 /  80  60  30  30
Waverly        73  61  78  62 /  80  50  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Cravens
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Shamburger