522
FXUS64 KEWX 221925
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
225 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

* Level 2 to 3 out of 5 risk for isolated to scattered severe storms
  this evening across portions of the northern Hill Country and
  central Texas.
* Dangerous heat indices this afternoon and Thursday afternoon,
  especially across the Rio Grande Plains - those spending extended
  time outdoors and not acclimated to the early season heat could be
  susceptible to heat related illness if not taking proper heat
  precautions.

Early this afternoon has seen the morning stratus slowly erode along
with the thickest of the haze (combination of the high humidity and
smoke coming from the agricultural burning in Mexico and Central
America). A pocket of mid-level moisture also was able to develop a
few morning showers earlier as well from the I-35 corridor down into
the coastal plains. It`s no surprise but highs will commonly reach
the low to mid 90s again this afternoon while locations towards the
Rio Grande eclipse 100 degrees. Heat indices across the Rio Grande
plains climb into the 108 to 113 range and thus the Heat Advisory
across those counties remains on target. Elsewhere, peak heat
indices into the 100 to 108 degree range will be common. That`s the
heat headlines today but now let`s talk about the convective chances
from late this afternoon through tonight down below.

Strong to severe thunderstorms have already begun to fire along a
cold front to the north across Central Texas from near Sterling City
to Cicso. While activity along and ahead of the cold front will be
our primary concern later this evening through tonight over our
northern counties, it is expected to take some time for this
activity to reach our CWA. Portions of the Rio Grande may actually
be the first location to see a storm enter our region as an isolated
cell or two fires off the higher terrain of Mexico to our west and
the dryline. Now back to our main round, the CAMs continue to
indicate a cluster of isolated to scattered strong to severe storms
advancing east-southeastward into Llano and Burnet Counties near the
7 to 10 PM time frame, and a potential as far south as the Austin
metro area beyond 9 to 10 PM. The primary severe hazards will
include large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. While an
isolated tornado threat is possible, the greatest risk for a tornado
should generally focus north of our CWA. Towards the south and
southwest, convective inhibition will be on the increase from the
late evening through tonight. This will lead to a weakening trend of
the storms at that time, eventually dissipating. We continue to not
expect for the storms to reach the San Antonio metro area or south
of I-10 at this time.

Overnight tonight through Thursday morning will once again trend of
very warm and humid conditions with the lows in the 70s to near 80
degrees. Low stratus along with thicker haze will return as well.
Several of the CAMs show possible redevelopment of rain and storms
across portions of the San Angelo CWA through early Thursday
morning. There is a low possibility for this activity to clip our
northern most Hill Country counties later Thursday morning into
early afternoon. Inserted a small region of 15 to 20 PoPs across
those counties between 15 UTC and 21 UTC. Otherwise, the remainder
of Thursday should stay dry with more heat as highlighted below.

Thursday afternoon is expected to trend as hot or perhaps slightly
hotter than today with skies becoming sunny to mostly sunny area
wide by late afternoon. 90s will be common for most locations and
areas along the Rio Grande return up into the 100 to 105 degree
range. Heat indices nearly match today`s numbers with 100 to 108
degrees ranging for majority of the region while the Rio Grande
Plains has the peak heat indices top out in the 108 to 113 range.
Another Heat Advisory is likely for the same counties as today but
will pass issuance to the overnight shift given the ongoing heat
hazard and today`s severe weather potential. Low stratus and some
haze will likely make a return during the overnight into early
Friday with lows again mainly in the 70s to near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Upper level ridging will remain in place over Mexico through the
long term period, which will generally lead to a warming trend
through the Memorial Day Weekend with Heat Advisories and/or
Warnings likely. A small vort max, primarily indicated by the GFS,
may move across central Texas late Friday afternoon and into the
evening which could spark an isolated storm or two across our
northeastern counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to
prevail through the weekend. At this time, Sunday appears to be the
warmest day for south-central Texas, though each day through the
weekend will have dangerous heat for those spending prolonged
periods outdoors and not taking the proper precautions. Daily record
MaxT`s and record warm MinT`s will also likely be challenged or set
each day across the area. Del Rio specifically may set a new all
time MaxT record for the month of May as well, which was tied at
109F earlier this month.

A welcomed drop in temperatures may occur Tuesday into Wednesday of
next week as a cold front works into the area from the north.
Temperatures will still likely be above average, yet noticeably
different from the previous days. This front may also bring some
isolated storm potential as well late Monday through Wednesday as
the boundary lingers near the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Lingering MVFR to IFR ceilings will improve to VFR by 20 UTC at all
of the South-Central Texas area TAF sites. KDRT could see isolated
convection develop nearby from late this afternoon through this
evening. KAUS has the greatest chances to be impacted by convection
this evening sometime around 02 UTC to 06 UTC. Added TEMPO -TSRA for
that period. The San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF) will remain
dry throughout the forecast period. Expect prevailing MVFR flight
conditions to return across the I-35 sites (KAUS, KSAT and KSSF)
overnight into Thursday morning. MVFR conditions may possibly
briefly reach KDRT after sunrise. Haze featuring slight visibility
restrictions will be possible as well. Conditions improve to VFR at
all sites into Thursday afternoon. A moderate south-southeasterly
flow prevails with occasionally gusty winds this afternoon and
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              94  75  94  76 /  20  30  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  75  93  76 /  20  30  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  76  96  76 /  20  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            90  73  91  74 /  30  30  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  81 105  80 /  20  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  74  91  75 /  20  30  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             98  76  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  75  95  75 /  20  20  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  76  92  77 /  20  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  76  96  76 /  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  77  98  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Dimmit-Frio-
Maverick-Zavala.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...Brady